Prospects for India to end-2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Subject Prospects for India to end-2017. Significance The expected economic scenario over the second half of 2017 is low inflation and a rebound of GDP growth from a slowdown in the first half. Following the triumph of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at the Uttar Pradesh state elections in March, Prime Minister Narendra Modi can expect a relatively quiet political season until year-end.

India’s central bank will be more amenable to Modi

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Consecutive Term ◽  
Indian Banks ◽  
Bad Debt ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India

Subject RBI under new governorship. Significance Shaktikanta Das was last month appointed Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor after Urjit Patel resigned. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government had for several months clashed with the RBI over how to foster economic growth. The general election is likely in April or May, when Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces a tough fight to win a second consecutive term. Impacts In election campaigning, Modi will emphasise India’s mostly robust quarterly GDP growth figures during his term. Indian banks’ level of bad debt could decrease by the end of the fiscal year ending March 2019. India will likely widen its fiscal deficit target for 2018/19 (3.3% of GDP) ahead of the 2019/20 budget.

Modi’s main test now will be to manage his alliance

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Hindu Nationalism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Jobless Growth ◽  
Chief Minister ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Significance The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has retained a parliamentary majority and the BJP has extended its single-party majority. During campaigning, Modi emphasised nationalist themes, ranging from Hindu nationalism to national security, while deflecting criticism over problems such as the country’s jobless growth. Impacts The BJP’s pledge to spend 100 trillion rupees (1.4 trillion dollars) on infrastructure will likely prompt a widening of the fiscal deficit. Leading BJP figures such as party President Amit Shah and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath may aim to succeed Modi in 2024. Rahul Gandhi will highly likely relinquish leadership of the main opposition Congress party.

Election results give Modi’s rivals some hope

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Election Results

Significance The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), retained a majority in Assam and won in Puducherry. It fared less well elsewhere: the BJP failed to gain power in West Bengal, despite campaigning especially hard there. Impacts Violence in West Bengal involving rival supporters will likely continue for several more weeks. BJP strategists will now focus on the 2022 Uttar Pradesh election, determined to ensure the party holds power in that key state. Congress, India’s main opposition party, faces a deepening crisis of confidence after its underwhelming poll performance.

India’s economic growth will slow further

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Sector Banks ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India

Subject India's macroeconomic problems. Significance Fitch Ratings last week reduced its forecast for Indian GDP growth in fiscal year 2019/20 (April-March) to 5.5%, compared to a projection in June of 6.6%. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) earlier this month forecasted 6.1%, compared to a projection in February of 7.4%. Either Fitch’s or the RBI’s latest figure would be India’s lowest full-year growth rate since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014. Impacts As growth slows further, more foreign portfolio investors will withdraw from Indian equity and debt markets. Plans to merge public sector banks, consolidating their debts, will prompt more protests by bank workers fearing for their jobs. Opposition parties will challenge the nationally ruling Bharatiya Janata Party on its economic record at upcoming state elections.

Indian state polls modestly boost Modi's reform plan

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Plan ◽  
Electoral Campaign ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Indian State ◽  
A Minor

Significance They represent a minor triumph for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), after several difficult months, and promise to restore political momentum to his government. Yet progress is still likely to be slow. Impacts Uttar Pradesh polls will test whether the BJP's electoral campaign can avoid communal polarisation and conflict. Infrastructure investment in Assam is likely to rise, advancing Indian ambitions to improve connectivity with South-east Asia. Ties with Bangladesh will suffer as the new Assam government delivers on promises made to anti-Muslim ethic groups.

Prospects for India in the second quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Big Bang ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Government

Subject Prospects for India in the second quarter. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) suffered a major defeat in Delhi elections in February, denting the party's perception of electoral invincibility. This has cast a shadow over Modi's economic agenda just when investor pressure is mounting for 'big bang' reforms. Nonetheless, signs of economic recovery -- visible in the uptick in GDP growth, moderating inflation and strengthening balance of payments -- promise the government room for manoeuvre in the second quarter of 2015 (the first quarter of fiscal 2015-16).

Modi’s party will likely renew emphasis on caste

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Identity Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject India's ruling party's likely election strategy emphasising caste. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was last week displaced from government in three of its heartland states by the main opposition Congress party, following elections. The poll results suggest a loss of support for the BJP among rural voters and Dalits (formerly regarded as ‘untouchables’). Ahead of the general election likely in April or May, party President Amit Shah is overseeing the BJP’s strategy. Impacts The BJP will highlight India’s robust quarterly GDP growth figures, claiming good economic management besides engaging in identity politics. Opposition parties could highlight the plight of Dalits working as manual scavengers as part of their election campaigns. Shah will likely be a future prime ministerial candidate for the BJP.

India’s parties will target youth vote further

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Student Teachers ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Young Voters ◽  
University Campuses ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Jobless Growth ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Job Prospects

Subject Indian parties' outreach to young voters. Significance Last month, police in Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh (UP) state, clashed violently with crowds of student teachers protesting their poor job prospects. There have been dozens of youth demonstrations against joblessness across the country this year. The general election will likely occur in April or May next year when Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will face a challenge from the main opposition Congress party and other national or state-based parties. Impacts Civil society critics will accuse the BJP of undermining academic freedoms in the country’s universities. Some university campuses could see outbreaks of violence around the time of the poll. While the BJP will highlight India’s robust growth figures in campaigning, opponents will criticise it for fostering jobless growth.

Regional battles will be key in India’s election

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Key Factor

Significance Different states and union territories will go to the polls on different dates, with many voting in more than one phase. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces a tough challenge from the main opposition Congress party and several regionally influential parties. Impacts Anti-Pakistan nationalism would favour the BJP but, unless there are further cross-border hostilities, it is unlikely to be a key factor. Outbreaks of religious or caste violence are most likely in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar states. The post-poll government will struggle to rein in the fiscal deficit, with both main parties’ campaign pledges straining budgetary prudence.

Modi’s party will be relaxed about upcoming polls

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Chief Minister ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
National Profile ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Each of these states except Punjab has a government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Punjab is one of just three states with a chief minister that belongs to India’s main opposition Congress party. Impacts A poor showing by Congress would further reduce its leverage with other opposition parties in talks over forming a broad anti-Modi alliance. Victory in UP would enhance Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s national profile. Election campaigning will likely lead to a spike in COVID-19 cases.

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