Syrian government can consolidate, but not reconstruct

Significance Idlib is one of four ‘de-escalation zones’ agreed between Russia, Turkey and Iran on May 6. Their partial implementation has reduced the pressure of airstrikes by pro-government forces, but has intensified rebel infighting in Idlib and Eastern Ghouta. The southernmost zone, around Dera’a, is quiet for now, based on a separate agreement between Russia and the United States. Impacts The United States could launch tactical strikes on pro-government forces seen to encroach on its sphere of influence. Any signs of an easing of sanctions in the banking and import sectors could herald a new international reconstruction push. The opposition will lobby Western backers to maintain the link between reconstruction assistance and a negotiated political reconciliation.

Subject China's Indian Ocean strategy. Significance The Xi Jinping administration plans to integrate Eurasia and Africa more closely with China through investment and infrastructure, including pipelines, railways, roads and ports under the 'Silk Road Economic Belt' and 'New Maritime Silk Road' initiatives. The former is designed for Eurasia, the latter for the Indian Ocean. This is of growing concern to India, which sees the Indian Ocean as its sphere of influence. Impacts Indian Ocean stakeholders including the United States, India and Australia will cooperate to balance Chinese activities. China's ties with Persian Gulf countries will strengthen as China overtakes the United States as the largest crude oil importer. China's South China Sea and Indian Ocean strategies are interlinked on economic and security goals.


Author(s):  
David Shambaugh

After the end of the Cold War, it seemed as if Southeast Asia would remain a geopolitically stable region within the American imperious for the foreseeable future. In the last two decades, however, the re-emergence of China as a major great power has called into question the geopolitical future of the region and raised the specter of renewed great power competition. As this book shows, the United States and China are engaged in a broad-gauged and global competition for power. While this competition ranges across the entire world, it is centered in Asia, and here this text focuses on the ten countries that comprise Southeast Asia. The United States and China constantly vie for position and influence in this enormously significant region, and the outcome of this contest will do much to determine whether Asia leaves the American orbit after seven decades and falls into a new Chinese sphere of influence. Just as important, to the extent that there is a global “power transition” occurring from the United States to China, the fate of Southeast Asia will be a good indicator. Presently, both powers bring important assets to bear. The United States continues to possess a depth and breadth of security ties, soft power, and direct investment across the region that empirically outweigh China’s. For its part, China has more diplomatic influence, much greater trade, and geographic proximity. In assessing the likelihood of a regional power transition, the book looks at how ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and the countries within it maneuver between the United States and China and the degree to which they align with one or the other power.


2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-126
Author(s):  
Takisha Durm

PurposeThe Girl Who Buried Her Dreams in a Can, written by Dr Tererai, profiles a cultural, yet global experience of the power of believing in one's dream. Through this study of the similarities and differences of how children in the United States and abroad live and dream of a better life, this lesson seeks to enhance students' understandings of the power and authority they possess to effect change not only within their own lives but also in the lives of countless others in world. After reading the text, students will work to create vision boards illustrating their plans to effect change within their homes, schools, communities, states or countries. They will present their plans to their peers. To culminate the lesson, the students will bury their dreams in can and collectively decide on a future date to revisit the can to determine how far they have progressed in accomplishing their goals.Design/methodology/approachThis is an elementary grades 3–6 lesson plan. There was no research design/methodology/approach included.FindingsAs this is a lesson plan and no actual research was represented, there are no findings.Originality/valueThis is an original lesson plan completed by the first author Takisha Durm.


Significance Follow-on action from Washington and responses from foreign actors will shape the US government’s adversarial policy towards China in semiconductors and other strategic technologies. Impacts The Biden administration will likely conclude that broad-based diversion of the semiconductor supply chain away from China is not feasible. The United States will rely on export controls and political pressure to prevent diffusion to China of cutting-edge chip technologies. The United States will focus on persuading foreign semiconductor leaders to help develop US capabilities, thereby staying ahead of China. Washington will focus on less direct approaches to strategic technology competition with China, notably technical standards-setting. Industry leaders in the semiconductor supply chain worldwide will continue expanding business in China in less politically sensitive areas.


Significance Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is preparing to welcome a more predictable and stable partner in Biden than outgoing Republican President Donald Trump. However, Biden is also expected quickly to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, cutting another lifeline to Canada’s oil industry and creating some strain in Canada-US ties. Impacts Improved Canada-US ties will persist even if Trudeau loses the next federal election to Conservative Erin O’Toole. Canada will re-engage militarily with UN peacekeeping and NATO deployments. Trudeau will encourage Biden to end US prosecution of Meng Wanzhou, allowing Canada to release her; Biden may agree. Canada’s border with the United States will open in stages as COVID-19 recedes. Ottawa will push Biden to end ‘Buy American’ procurement policies, with little success.


Significance She addressed two key issues during her trip: tensions in post-coup Myanmar and China’s growing regional footprint. Shortly after she left the region, the United States announced that it would donate unused COVID-19 vaccines abroad, including to South-east Asia. Impacts Washington will tighten its sanctions on the Myanmar military while supporting ASEAN’s five-point plan to ease the country’s crisis. The National Unity Government, a parallel administration to Myanmar’s junta set up by its opponents, will try to attract greater US backing. Manila and Washington may extend negotiations over renewing their Visiting Forces Agreement to prevent the pact expiring in August.


2021 ◽  
pp. ASN.2020091281
Author(s):  
John Danziger ◽  
Kenneth J. Mukamal ◽  
Eric Weinhandl

BackgroundAlthough patients with kidney disease may be particularly susceptible to the adverse health effects associated with lead exposure, whether levels of lead found commonly in drinking water are associated with adverse outcomes in patients with ESKD is not known.MethodsTo investigate associations of lead in community water systems with hemoglobin concentrations and erythropoietin stimulating agent (ESA) use among incident patients with ESKD, we merged data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Safe Drinking Water Information System (documenting average 90th percentile lead concentrations in community water systems during 5 years before dialysis initiation, according to city of residence) with patient-level data from the United States Renal Data System.ResultsAmong 597,968 patients initiating dialysis in the United States in 2005 through 2017, those in cities with detectable lead levels in community water had significantly lower pre-ESKD hemoglobin concentrations and more ESA use per 0.01 mg/L increase in 90th percentile water lead. Findings were similar for the 208,912 patients with data from the first month of ESKD therapy, with lower hemoglobin and higher ESA use per 0.01 mg/L higher lead concentration. These associations were observed at lead levels below the EPA threshold (0.015 mg/L) that mandates regulatory action. We also observed environmental inequities, finding significantly higher water lead levels and slower declines over time among Black versus White patients.ConclusionsThis first nationwide analysis linking EPA water supply records to patient data shows that even low levels of lead that are commonly encountered in community water systems throughout the United States are associated with lower hemoglobin levels and higher ESA use among patients with advanced kidney disease.


Significance The authorities went ahead with the arrest of Nika Melia, leader of the opposition United National Movement (UNM), on February 23 even after the prime minister resigned in protest. Georgian Dream's actions have caused concern in Western capitals that approved its election victory when the opposition cried foul. Impacts The crisis is a setback for the government's stated plan to apply for EU membership in 2024. There is growing talk in the United States about individual sanctions targeting Ivanishvili and his associates. Political turmoil will harm hopes of foreign direct investment and the imminent Anaklia port tender.


Significance The growing numbers of senior citizens in the United States, their rapidly increasing adoption of social media and their high levels of voter turnout make their vulnerability to disinformation a matter of special concern. Other advanced democracies likely mirror the US experience. Impacts Older US adults' use of television as their primary news source may provide some bulwark against being targeted by disinformation online. The rapid evolution of news distribution technologies will challenge older adults used to a more slowly changing media landscape. Further research is necessary to determine the causes of age-based vulnerability and levels of resilience.


Significance Such programmes contribute not only to Indonesia’s efforts to boost the cyber readiness of its booming digital economy, but are also designed to maintain China's friendly relations with South-east Asia’s largest economy amid the intensifying technology tensions between China and the United States. Impacts The Personal Data Protection Law would need to clarify key provisions and concepts to be effective. The BSSN’s extensive powers will fuel civil society concerns about excessive state surveillance. Turning down Chinese technology suppliers carries cost and wider economic ramifications for Jakarta.


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