New Irish government will fear Brexit fallout

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Generational Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sinn Fein ◽  
Water Charges ◽  
Irish Government ◽  
Indian Immigrant ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance Ireland’s new leader succeeded Enda Kenny (2011-17) in June. Aged 38, openly gay and the son of an Indian immigrant, his election represents a generational change both for the ruling party and the executive. Impacts Government ambiguities over a Northern Ireland border plan could be exposed by the opposition, notably Sinn Fein. A proposed ban on public sector strikes by 'essential' workers could worsen relations between unions and government. A promise by Varadkar to reimburse households for controversial water charges by year-end may prove over-ambitious.

New Irish leader is likely to be stop-gap

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Water ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sinn Fein ◽  
Members Of Parliament ◽  
Water Charges ◽  
Form Part ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
The Uk

Significance In the weeks prior to the visit, Kenny declared that he would "effectively and conclusively" deal with the issue of his departure from office following his return to Dublin. A long-running scandal over a police whistle-blower has undermined Kenny's leadership of the Fine Gael party and opened fissures within the ruling coalition. Impacts Several independent members of parliament, including Katherine Zappone, could lose their seats if a snap election is called. Dublin could seek guarantees from the UK government in Brexit talks allowing for future Irish reunification. Sinn Fein will likely increase their numbers in a forthcoming poll, but are unlikely to form part of the next administration. Renewed divisions over domestic water charges could prompt the downfall of the current government.

Japan gender equality policies have economic goals

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sexual Harassment ◽  
Gender Equality ◽  
Gender Inequality ◽  
Generational Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Female Candidates ◽  
Criminal Penalties ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
The Way

Subject Gender inequality in Japan. Significance The need to improve gender equality has been discussed in Japan for decades, but progress has been slow or non-existent. Impacts The extent of the gendering of elected politics in Japan up until now suggests that progress will be slow. Generational change will likely be needed before the ruling party can field more female candidates. Laws against sexual harassment are more likely to be framed in terms of compensation rather than fines or criminal penalties. Businesses oppose tougher laws against sexual harassment, fearing they will open the way for a flood of lawsuits.

Survival prospects for new Irish government are good

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Social Housing ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Green Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Illicit Trade ◽  
Fianna Fail ◽  
Irish Government ◽  
Left Party

Significance He will lead a historic coalition involving his Fianna Fail (FF; centre-left) party, its historical rivals Fine Gael (FG; centre-right), and the Green Party (GP; centre-left). Ensuring a speedy economic recovery and implementing an ambitious climate change agenda will be among key priorities. Impacts The lack of opportunities for young people to emigrate due to the COVID-19 pandemic makes the unemployment challenge even more pressing. Failure to implement substantial increases in social housing would strongly play into SF’s hands. The border between Ireland and Northern Ireland could be exposed to illicit trade if the Irish Protocol is not implemented by year-end.

Ireland will wait until Brexit for an election

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Government Performance ◽  
Carbon Taxes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fianna Fail ◽  
Irish Government ◽  
Livestock Farmers ◽  
The Government

Subject Irish government performance. Significance The latest polls show declining support for the ruling Fine Gael (FG) and for Fianna Fail (FF), which supports the government in a confidence-and-supply arrangement. The FF leadership is under grassroots pressure to withdraw support for the government but will hold off until after the scheduled Brexit date in the hope that its ‘responsible’ approach in supporting stable governance at a time of unprecedented uncertainty will provide political dividends down the line. Impacts Ireland will attract EU migrants due to new UK immigration plans, with a salary threshold of 30,000 pounds (37,970 dollars) for immigrants. FG and FF will expand their networks in Northern Ireland, giving constitutional nationalism greater influence in the province post-Brexit. Tackling climate change seriously will provoke huge opposition, from livestock farmers to parties opposed to carbon taxes.

Conflict over Northern Ireland protocol will persist

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sinn Fein ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Governing Institutions

Significance Through a joint EU-UK committee, the NIP's purpose is to implement a regulatory and customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. Amid trade disruptions and the EU's aborted decision to suspend aspects of the NIP's operation on January 29, hard-line unionists are now calling for the protocol to be scrapped. Impacts David Frost's replacement of Michael Gove as co-chair of the joint EU-UK committee could see London harden its approach to the NIP. Victory for the nationalist Sinn Fein in elections in 2022, as polls suggest, could prompt unionists to collapse the governing institutions. Further civil unrest by loyalists opposed to the NIP could trigger counter-responses by nationalist groups.

Prospects for South Africa in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance The party faces both extreme internal divisions -- which helped spark the July uprising -- and increasing voter disaffection, raising questions about its longevity as the ruling party. Meanwhile, critical structural economic questions remained unaddressed, notably relating to the embattled energy sector, failing state-owned enterprises and public sector pay.

The Downing Street Declaration and Framework Documents, 1993–1995

2020 ◽  
pp. 208-338
Author(s):  
John Coakley ◽  
Jennifer Todd
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Sinn Fein ◽  
Irish Government ◽  
Internal Affairs ◽  
Insight Into

The Downing Street Declaration of 1993 and the Framework Documents of 1995 mark a new direction in British–Irish policy. After the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985, the Irish government had gained a formal voice in the internal affairs of Northern Ireland, but the IRA campaign continued. At the end of the 1980s, a new initiative was launched: an effort to persuade Sinn Féin and the IRA to move to a purely political path. Spearheaded by nationalist leader John Hume, this took the form of successive redrafting of a statement drawn up initially by Hume following his discussions with Gerry Adams. In the resulting Downing Street Declaration of 1993, the two governments agreed to facilitate Irish unity should this be the wish of a majority in Northern Ireland. This was followed—after several months—by an IRA and then a loyalist ceasefire, and it was amplified by the Framework Documents of 1995, which outline a constitutional blueprint for a future settlement. In the witness seminar used to provide an insight into this process, British and Irish officials recalled in detail the painful redrafting and consultation processes that led ultimately to agreement between the governments and acceptance by the parties.

Election losses set back Abe's plans

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Gender Equality ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Political Change ◽  
Liberal Democratic Party ◽  
Left Main ◽  
Generational Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Liberal Democratic ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance Abe's conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its long-time coalition partner won a comfortable majority but not the two-thirds supermajority in the house that Abe would need to ensure passage of revisions to Japan's constitution, even with the support of the 16 representatives of the pro-revision Japan Innovation Party. Impacts The nucleus of a new centre-left main opposition may be forming. Women were poorly represented, undermining Abe's professed commitment to gender equality. Japan's younger voters show a preference for the conservative ruling party, suggesting generational change will not bring political change.

Elections will weigh on Ivory Coast’s reform momentum

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Competition ◽  
State Power ◽  
Civil Servants ◽  
Power Utility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Public Opposition

Subject Ivorian economic fragility. Significance The uncertainty and intense political competition surrounding the 2020 elections risks fuelling populist pressures on President Alassane Ouattara’s administration. While his government will not reverse course on the broad thrust of its economic agenda, the pace and scope of pro-business reforms risk being curtailed. Impacts The government will be vulnerable to more strikes by civil servants and military mutinies, having previously succumbed to these pressures. The government will try pushing the reform credentials of Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly, Ouattara’s potential ruling party successor. Planned power tariff hikes may be delayed due to public opposition while public-sector arrears to the state power utility may go unpaid. Overdue tax collection reforms, which made some initial headway under IMF pressure, could face further delays.

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