Pakistan's current account pressures may rise

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Banking System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Difficulties ◽  
The Government ◽  
Support Fund ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Pakistan's ruling party seeking economic stability. Significance After former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's disqualification and subsequent resignation in July, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi heads the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government. The ruling party is under pressure from the opposition, and seeks economic stability ahead of the national elections due in 2018. Impacts Pakistan may experience further financial difficulties if the United States discontinues the Coalition Support Fund. If the government opts for more borrowing from the central bank than the banking system, inflation will increase. Pakistan may seek another IMF loan.

Uganda former PM aspirant will provoke backlash

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Internal Disruption ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Police Forces

Subject Pre-election politics in Uganda. Significance The long-expected announcement on June 15 by sacked Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi that he will run for president will bring bitter tensions between him and President Yoweri Museveni out into the open. It is highly unlikely to threaten the latter's 30-year rule but may provoke internal disruption within the ruling party as Museveni makes an example of internal dissent. Impacts Loyalty among the military and police forces will remain central to Museveni's power. Museveni effectively distances himself from graft scandals, while Mbabazi's reputation remains tarnished by several high-profile cases. Oil firms could see some benefits, if Museveni decides to assure them of his solid hold on power. The government was already likely to unleash inflation-inducing spending during the election, but Mbabazi's campaign increases this risk.

India’s remedy for bad debt may not bring relief

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Bankruptcy Code ◽  
The Government ◽  
Bad Debt ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India

Subject Implementation of India's new Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code. Significance Shrinking bank credit is hindering India’s ability to finance spending. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is relying on the recently instituted Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) as the principal instrument to address the problem of stressed assets in the banking system. Impacts The government may accelerate plans to merge stronger and weaker PSBs. Indian corporates may increase their issue of bonds denominated in domestic currency. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will emphasise job creation rather than investment until the next election.

Thailand’s Prayut may keep power in a civilian regime

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
National Council ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Thailand's long-delayed election. Significance More than 40 new political parties have been registered in Thailand since March 2, and established parties will be allowed to begin registering members on April 1, as Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) begin a process of preparing for a long-delayed general election. The 2017 constitution initiated by the NCPO allows the (to be re-established) House of Representatives to select an ‘outsider’ as prime minister if it is unable to decide on a party-affiliated figure. Impacts Persistent election delays will not affect Thailand’s current economic recovery. Despite mounting political pressure on the government to commit to a poll, anti-government protests will not grow. Improving relations with the United States could insulate the government from EU pressure on delayed elections.

Pakistan’s ruling party may be hard to dislodge

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Sindh Province ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Electoral chances of Pakistan's opposition. Significance Despite Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification and resignation as prime minister on July 28, his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) remains in power under new Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi. Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is now regarded as the opposition party most likely to challenge the incumbent government. A by-election on September 17 in the seat vacated by Sharif -- Lahore’s NA-120 -- will be a test of popularity ahead of the general election due in 2018. Impacts Pakistan’s military will look for greater support from the civilian government if the United States cuts its funding. Abbasi will resist pressure to devalue the rupee as a means of bolstering Pakistan’s exports. The Muttahida Qaumi Movement in Sindh province may regroup.

The Failure of U Nu and the Return of the Armed Forces in Burma

1963 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 309-328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank N. Trager
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
National Elections ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Chamber Of Deputies

Unu, in 1947, became the Prime Minister of the Provisional Government of Burma. He retained that post after independence in 1948 and, except for seven months in 1956–1957, he had been the duly elected Prime Minister until he gave up office in September, 1958, after the serious split in the ruling party, the Anti-Fascist Peoples' Freedom League (AFPFL). From then until the third national elections of February, 1960, General Ne Win, Chief of the Burma Defense Forces, held the reins of what was called a “caretaker government”, in which he proceeded strictly according to the constitution adopted in 1947. U Nu's Party won an overwhelming victory at the polls in 1960 and once again, with almost 80 per cent parliamentary backing in the 250-man Chamber of Deputies, the more powerful chamber in the bicameral parliament, he set about to govern Burma. On March 2, 1962, General Ne Win staged a coup. He took over the government in the name of a military Revolutionary Council, arrested the previous cabinet members, and set aside Burma's constitution.

Economic woe presents greatest risk to Thai government

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
Direct Control ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Thai Government ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject Problems facing the Thai government. Significance Thailand’s government, led by a party with ties to the junta that ruled until July, is facing political and economic headwinds as it tries to establish civilian rule. The king is consolidating his authority, political opponents are pushing back on the ruling coalition and exports are weakening, raising quandaries for Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. Impacts A worsening trade outlook will prompt the government to step up efforts to secure a free trade agreement with the EU. Thailand and the United States will take time to strengthen bilateral ties, nominally mended when Prayut visited Washington in 2017. The army units under the king’s direct control could provide cover for rival factions to Prayut’s in the event of another military coup.

Spanish foreign policy will concern traditional allies

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Government

Subject Spanish foreign policy. Significance Spain does not see itself replacing the United Kingdom as one of the ‘Big 3’ in driving EU policymaking and cooperation after Brexit. Instead, the government of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will seek to prioritise Spanish interests in the Mediterranean and on Brexit, and will become less preoccupied with EU cooperation and integration. Spain is seeking a more balanced and broader relationship with the United States, but there is tension over the political crisis in Venezuela and trade issues. Impacts Relations with the United States will become more difficult, especially if President Donald Trump is re-elected. Although Spain would like to shift its regional emphasis towards Asia, Venezuela and the coronavirus could nullify that ambition. Immigration is now a priority, as further illegal inflows would fuel support for the far-right Vox party.

Oil is South Sudan's last economic lifeline

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Direct Role ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Economic outlook and the impact of conflict. Significance July 11 marks the fourth anniversary of South Sudan's independence in 2011. Although the country has the modest advantage of a larger oil sector than most neighbouring countries, the country remains severely underdeveloped, with meagre infrastructure and high levels of poverty. In 2013 a political crisis at the centre of government led to a split in the ruling party and the eruption of an armed conflict with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-In Opposition (SPLM-IO) which has continued up to the present. Impacts The breakdown of peace talks between the government and SPLM-IO in March have ended plans to set up a national unity government by July. The new mediation framework involves a more direct role for donors, including the United Kingdom, Norway and the United States. Progress on reuniting parts of the ruling party may ease pressure on negotiations with the SPLM-IO.

Abe takes on farming lobby, paving way for TPP

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Traditional Farming ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
Regulatory Protection ◽  
The Government

Subject Reforms to Japan's agricultural sector and their impact on trade policy. Significance The government is about to pass legislation curbing the powers of the JA Group, the sprawling conglomerate that dominates the country's farming sector. JA has lobbied successfully for decades for import barriers and subsidies, particularly for rice, and is the most formidable opponent of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hopes to sign with the United States. Impacts Economic and political forces are inexorably chipping away at the traditional farming sector's political power and regulatory protection. As commercial farmers benefit from deregulation, their weight as a constituency will grow, making further liberalisation easier. In boldly confronting the feared farmers' lobby and winning, Abe signals his seriousness about structural reform.

Nepal’s Oli may soon pass on power to partner

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Communist Party ◽  
Strong Influence ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Tensions between the co-chairs of Nepal's ruling party. Significance In recent weeks, tensions have grown between the Nepal Communist Party (NCP)’s co-chairs, Prime Minister KP Oli and PK Dahal (‘Prachanda’). Ahead of the NCP’s formation early last year through a merger of the two leaders’ erstwhile parties, Oli and Prachanda reportedly agreed to lead the government for equal periods. As Oli comes under pressure to ensure he complies, former Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal, who wields strong influence within Oli’s faction in the NCP, has spoken out against the incumbent. Impacts Oli and Prachanda will in the short term probably put on a show of solidarity, aiming to dispel any notion of governing instability. The main opposition Nepali Congress may try to form closer links with India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, hoping for its tacit support. If Prachanda takes power, he may face calls to take a harder line on former comrades within the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist).

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