Oil is South Sudan's last economic lifeline

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Direct Role ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Economic outlook and the impact of conflict. Significance July 11 marks the fourth anniversary of South Sudan's independence in 2011. Although the country has the modest advantage of a larger oil sector than most neighbouring countries, the country remains severely underdeveloped, with meagre infrastructure and high levels of poverty. In 2013 a political crisis at the centre of government led to a split in the ruling party and the eruption of an armed conflict with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-In Opposition (SPLM-IO) which has continued up to the present. Impacts The breakdown of peace talks between the government and SPLM-IO in March have ended plans to set up a national unity government by July. The new mediation framework involves a more direct role for donors, including the United Kingdom, Norway and the United States. Progress on reuniting parts of the ruling party may ease pressure on negotiations with the SPLM-IO.

Libyan politics may rattle the oil sector yet again

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Budget ◽  
Military Commander ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil And Gas Companies

Significance Libya’s hydrocarbons sector has seen a period of relative stability since the end in 2020 of eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar’s military offensive against Tripoli and the formation of the Government of National Unity in early 2021. Oil and gas revenues are central to the national budget -- and their control and distribution are focal points of political contention. Impacts The main risk to oil production in 2022 is the possibility of a renewed political crisis triggered by elections. Prompt payment of salaries and fees will remain important to discouraging private security forces from closing down oil infrastructure. Foreign oil and gas companies will become more cautious about new investment.

Washington will engage more with South-east Asia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Asia ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Key Issues ◽  
Set Up

Significance She addressed two key issues during her trip: tensions in post-coup Myanmar and China’s growing regional footprint. Shortly after she left the region, the United States announced that it would donate unused COVID-19 vaccines abroad, including to South-east Asia. Impacts Washington will tighten its sanctions on the Myanmar military while supporting ASEAN’s five-point plan to ease the country’s crisis. The National Unity Government, a parallel administration to Myanmar’s junta set up by its opponents, will try to attract greater US backing. Manila and Washington may extend negotiations over renewing their Visiting Forces Agreement to prevent the pact expiring in August.

scholarly journals The Impact of Fake News and the Emerging Post-Truth Political Era on Nigerian Polity: A Review of Literature

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Umaru A. Pate ◽  
Danjuma Gambo ◽  
Adamkolo Mohammed Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
The United States ◽  
Online News ◽  
Fake News ◽  
The Public ◽  
Key Stakeholders ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ruling Party

Since the rising to notoriety of the present ‘genre’ of malicious content peddled as ‘fake news’ (mostly over social media) in 2016 during the United States’ presidential election, barely three years until Nigeria’s 2019 general elections, fake news has made dangerously damaging impacts on the Nigerian society socially, politically and economically. Notably, the escalating herder-farmer communal clashes in the northern parts of the country, ethno-religious crises in Taraba, Plateau and Benue states and the furiously burning fire of the thug-of-war between the ruling party (All Progressives Congress, APC) and the opposition, particularly the main opposition party (People’s Democratic Party, PDP) have all been attributed to fake news, untruth and political propaganda. This paper aims to provide further understanding about the evolving issues regarding fake news and its demonic impact on the Nigerian polity. To make that contribution toward building the literature, extant literature and verifiable online news content on fake news and its attributes were critically reviewed. This paper concludes that fake news and its associated notion of post-truth may continue to pose threat to the Nigerian polity unless strong measures are taken. For the effects of fake news and post-truth phenomena to be suppressed substantially, a tripartite participation involving these key stakeholders – the government, legislators and the public should be modelled and implemented to the letter.

Oil prices will increase Ecuador's fiscal pressures

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Full Control ◽  
Public Resources ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impact Of Falling

Significance The collapse of world oil prices has brought fiscal policy sharply into focus in Ecuador. At a time when the budget deficit is widening and the opposition is strengthening, the government faces the prospect of receiving significantly less income from the oil sector than anticipated. The fallout from the plunge of oil prices coincides with the beginning of the constitutional debate that could allow the re-election of President Rafael Correa in 2017. Impacts The government will intensify efforts to raise oil output in a bid to ease the impact of falling oil prices. Conflicts between central and local government will probably increase as public resources become scarcer. If oil prices remain low, the appeal of exiting dollarisation and establishing full control over monetary policy will rise.

Rising oil prices will bolster Ecuador’s Moreno

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Environmental Discourse ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Yasuni National Park ◽  
Fiscal Conditions ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
International Investors ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil Revenues

Significance Higher oil prices have eased pressures on Ecuador’s trade balance and public finances, helping President Lenin Moreno as he attempts to ameliorate the political crisis that has gripped his government since his inauguration in May. However, the oil sector faces challenges including tight fiscal conditions, production cuts and widespread corruption. Impacts Higher oil prices will reassure international investors that the government will be able to honour its rising debt obligations. Moreno is likely to secure referendum backing for his plans to increase the protection of the Yasuni National Park. Moreno will find it difficult to reconcile his environmental discourse with his need to bring in fresh oil revenues over the longer term.

Maduro risks mounting militarisation in Venezuela

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
General Assembly ◽  
Security Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
American States ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
The Government

Significance It is as yet unclear whether the police officer in question acted alone, although he apparently once worked for former Interior and Justice Minister Miguel Rodriguez Torres, who, the government claims, is linked to the CIA and whose arrest has reportedly been ordered. The death toll in ongoing anti-government protests continues to rise, now totalling an estimated 75 since April. The failure of the Organization of American States (OAS) to agree a resolution on Venezuela at its General Assembly has emboldened Caracas while demonstrating the inability of the regional body to determine a course of action that can help to resolve the country’s political crisis. Impacts Violence will continue as the opposition relies on protests to weaken the government and erode participation in the assembly elections. Each protest-related death is serving to entrench a paralysing cycle of demonstration and repression. As the OAS flounders, the United States will likely move unilaterally to impose new sanctions on Venezuelan officials. Changes to military figures in the government will deepen political rifts between different elements and factions in the security sector. Yesterday's attack suggests that, in the event of a serious military intervention, this would be violent and bloody.

Where is Saudi Arabia's economy heading?

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre Rostan ◽  
Alexandra Rostan
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Content Type ◽  
West Texas ◽  
Vision 2030 ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of the paper is to forecast economic indicators of the Saudi economy in the context of low oil prices which have taken a toll on the Saudi oil-dependent economy between 2014 and 2017. Trades and investments have plummeted, leading to significant budget deficits. In response, the government unveiled a plan called Saudi Vision 2030 in 2016 which has triggered structural economic reforms leading to an unprecedented strategy of transition from an oil-driven economy to a modern market economy.Design/methodology/approachThis paper forecasts with spectral analysis economic indicators of the Saudi economy up to 2030 to provide a clearer picture of the future economy assuming that the effects of recent reforms have not yet been traced by most of the economic indicators.Findings2018–2030 forecasts are all bearish except West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price expected to average $64.40 during the period 2019–2030. Two additional exceptions are the Saudi population that should grow to 40 million in 2030 and the swelling gross domestic product (GDP) generated by the non-oil sector resulting from bold actions of the Saudi government who is willing to become less dependent on revenues generated by the oil sector.Research limitations/implicationsGovernment policymakers, economists and investors would have with spectral forecasts better insight and understanding of the Saudi economy dynamics at the early stage of major economic reforms implemented in the country. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has brutally hurt the Saudi economy following a collapse in the global demand for oil and an oversupplied industry. The impact on the Saudi economy will depend on the optimal response brought by its government.Social implicationsSaudi Vision 2030 plan has already triggered a deep transformation of the Saudi society that is reviewed in this paper.Originality/valueThe forecast of Saudi economic indicators is a timely topic considering the challenges facing the economy and reforms being undertaken. Applying an original forecasting technique to economic indicators adds to the originality of the paper.

Algeria to raise spending despite revenue squeeze

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
Target Date ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Stabilisation Fund

Significance The government has depleted the Fonds de Regulation des Recettes (FRR -- Algeria's oil stabilisation fund) that it set up in 2000 to help finance fiscal deficits, and announced plans to use “unconventional financing”, or direct borrowing from the central bank, to cover the deficit and meet domestic debt obligations during a five-year period of structural reforms, aimed at achieving budget equilibrium. Impacts Unblocking funds for social investment projects such as housing will help to generate growth and jobs in the non-oil sector. The government aims to keep a lid on current spending, and is garnering more non-oil revenue from tax hikes that went into effect in 2017. The projected fiscal deficit will be 9% of GDP in 2018, and the target date for balancing the budget has been extended from 2019 to 2023.

Spanish foreign policy will concern traditional allies

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Government

Subject Spanish foreign policy. Significance Spain does not see itself replacing the United Kingdom as one of the ‘Big 3’ in driving EU policymaking and cooperation after Brexit. Instead, the government of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will seek to prioritise Spanish interests in the Mediterranean and on Brexit, and will become less preoccupied with EU cooperation and integration. Spain is seeking a more balanced and broader relationship with the United States, but there is tension over the political crisis in Venezuela and trade issues. Impacts Relations with the United States will become more difficult, especially if President Donald Trump is re-elected. Although Spain would like to shift its regional emphasis towards Asia, Venezuela and the coronavirus could nullify that ambition. Immigration is now a priority, as further illegal inflows would fuel support for the far-right Vox party.

Opposition to China will grow in UK politics

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
The United States ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Government ◽  
Set Up

Subject UK opposition to China. Significance Conservative Party MPs are becoming increasingly concerned with China. They have set up the China Research Group (CRG), a backbench group dedicated to highlighting what they see as the increasing threat China poses to the health, wealth and security not just of the United Kingdom but to the West as a whole. Impacts Parliament will vote to reject Huawei’s involvement in the building of UK 5G unless the government reduces Huawei’s role substantially. The United Kingdom will look to cooperate with other large democracies in finding alternatives to Huawei. The government’s growing opposition to Huawei will make it somewhat easier to strike a free trade deal with the United States.

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