EU defence cooperation could make real progress

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
European Council ◽  
Hybrid Warfare ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Industry ◽  
Industry Consolidation ◽  
Significant Step ◽  
Funding Mechanisms ◽  
Defence Cooperation

Subject EU defence cooperation. Significance The adoption by the European Council on December 11, 2017, of the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) mechanism marks a significant step towards a European defence union as proposed by the Commission. How well this and other EU defence cooperation initiatives are implemented in 2018 will be crucial for their ultimate success. Impacts The latest EU defence initiatives could incentivise new cooperation frameworks between member states. New initiatives and funding mechanisms could help foster defence industry consolidation in Europe. Europe could gradually expand its ability to operate more independently of NATO and the United States. EU initiatives could complement NATO efforts by helping to counter hybrid warfare and in supporting military mobility across Europe.

Ties with India depend on Iran's normalisation

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Missed Opportunities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Trade Relationships ◽  
Defence Cooperation ◽  
Economic Ties

Significance The deal was one of a number of key agreements that Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed during his visit to Tehran on May 23. The visit aimed to advance relations following the lifting of sanctions on Iran in January, and a decade of missed opportunities and rising suspicion in relations between Tehran and Delhi. Impacts Expanding energy and trade ties will support Iran's efforts to diversify its economy and trade relationships. Building economic ties with India will help the normalisation of Tehran's international relations. India will limit security and defence cooperation with Iran in order to avoid alienating Israel, Gulf states and the United States.

United Arab Emirates military will use proxy warfare

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Islam ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Industry ◽  
The Us

Significance The UAE military is deeply concerned about both direct and indirect threats from Iran and from Sunni political Islam. It has therefore focused on building alliances with global and regional partner militaries, seen as more useful than developing unilateral capabilities. Impacts The UAE military will not engage in the current Qatar crisis which is political and economic. Abu Dhabi will prioritise alliances with the United States, Europe and Israel to deter Iran. Lobbying for the transfer of the US airbase from Qatar to the UAE is unlikely to succeed. The UAE will build its defence industry to function as an arsenal for regional allies.

Huawei 5G role prompts diplomatic pressures in Brazil

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Brazilian Government ◽  
Medical Supplies ◽  
Defence Industry ◽  
5G Network ◽  
Infrastructure Investments ◽  
Potential Option

Subject The politics of 5G in Brazil. Significance Brazil has started the process of choosing the supplier of its 5G network. The United States is a key player in this competition, and US President Donald Trump himself lobbied against the potential option of China’s Huawei during a March dinner with his Brazilian counterpart Jair Bolsonaro. While these efforts seek to reduce Huawei’s chances in the 5G auction, there is resistance within parts of the Brazilian government. Moreover, a diplomatic faux pas by Bolsonaro’s son may have favoured China’s position. Impacts US overtures may favour the Brazilian defence industry, with new partnerships on the cards. Beijing may seek to increase Huawei’s attractiveness with further Chinese infrastructure investments in Brazil. China will take advantage of its position as a provider of medical supplies and expertise to promote its position in Brazil. The result of the auction could prove to be a compromise arrangement grudgingly accepted by both sides.

Russia worries will promote closer Sweden-US ties

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Cooperation Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Baltic Sea Region ◽  
Defence Cooperation ◽  
Security Relationship ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Industrial Collaboration

Subject Sweden-US defence cooperation. Significance The defence cooperation agreement signed on June 8 between the United States and Sweden lends political weight and direction to a bilateral defence and security relationship that is rapidly changing and has taken on new importance in both Stockholm and Washington as the security situation in the Baltic Sea region continues to be turbulent and contested. The agreement will enable more direct bilateral cooperation between the United States and Sweden in the fields of training and exercises, capabilities development, research and development, and industrial collaboration. Impacts Regular exercises with NATO allies and security partners like Sweden will see greater numbers of US troops in the Baltic region. Industrial collaboration between Swedish and US defence firms will present commercial opportunities. Finland may pursue a similar bilateral framework for security cooperation with the United States.

Deeper Finnish-US defence ties would irritate Russia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cooperation Agreement ◽  
Joint Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Baltic Sea Region ◽  
Bilateral Cooperation ◽  
Defence Cooperation ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Ukraine Crisis

Subject Finnish-US defence agreement. Significance In response to growing Russian assertiveness in the Baltic Sea region since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, Finland has pursued closer cooperation with NATO and the United States. It signed a bilateral cooperation agreement with the United States on October 7. Impacts Cooperation in areas such as training and exercises, information sharing and joint research and development will increase. The agreement does not include any binding mutual defence commitments. Finland is likely to push for greater defence cooperation with the EU.

Wargames show Russian power in wilful Belarus

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eastern Partnership ◽  
Short Notice ◽  
Defence Cooperation ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
North Western ◽  
Different Parts ◽  
The Eu

Significance The Zapad-2017 exercises, held in Belarus and north-western Russia, ended without incident on September 20. They underlined Moscow's capacity to wage conventional war in Europe and its ability to deploy large number of troops in Belarus at short notice. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin attended different parts of the exercises in their own countries, symbolising (even if inadvertently) the gulf between them. Impacts The scale and relevance of the Zapad exercises will encourage the United States to strengthen its presence on NATO's eastern fringes. The Eastern Partnership offers the EU and Belarus a framework for building closer ties. Ukraine will seek opportunities for greater defence cooperation with NATO, although accession is not an option.

Informal regulatory approach could boost US innovators

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Technological Innovation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Regulatory Role ◽  
Soft Law ◽  
Department Of Transportation ◽  
Regulatory Evolution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Significant Step ◽  
Regulatory Approach

Subject US 'soft law' regulation. Significance The Department of Transportation (DOT) announced in September its intent to issue new non-binding guidelines for the development of self-driving automobiles. Although they do not carry the full weight of law, the guidelines are a significant step toward establishing new laws and regulations, as well as signalling intent by some agencies to pursue more 'soft law' approaches to regulating technologies that evolve faster than traditional laws can be enacted. Impacts Congress will come under pressure to legislate better regulatory evolution with respect to technological innovation. However, partisan suspicion of the government's regulatory role is likely to hold back innovation-friendly shifts in US legislation. State and municipal regulation will shape the rollout of self-driving vehicles in the United States.

EU defence may focus on cooperation, not integration

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Research And Development ◽  
The United States ◽  
Development Cooperation ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Sector ◽  
Defence Cooperation ◽  
Fresh Impetus ◽  
The Eu

Significance The debate around European defence integration has surfaced periodically over past decades, but progress has fallen short of expectations. Brexit and the elections of Presidents Emmanuel Macron in France and Donald Trump in the United States have given fresh impetus to attempts to strengthen EU cooperation. Impacts Countries such as Italy and Poland will press the EU to devote more resources to their specific security-related challenges. For now, Brexit appears unlikely to affect the strong UK-French industrial arrangements in the defence sector. Defence cooperation will proceed primarily through further research and development cooperation.

End to Philippine-US security pact will benefit China

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Military Personnel ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The United States ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Defence Cooperation

Subject Philippine-US security ties. Significance President Rodrigo Duterte’s government earlier this month notified Washington that Manila was withdrawing from the 1998 Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), which provides a legal framework for US military personnel to deploy to the Philippines on a temporary basis. The withdrawal will come into effect 180 days from notification. Impacts Fallout from abrogating the VFA could include increased tensions between the United States and China. Washington will count on certain South-east Asian countries such as Singapore to increase defence cooperation with the United States. US military ties with Japan, South Korea and Australia will remain strong.

Japan’s F-35s will confer air superiority

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fighter Aircraft ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Industry

Subject Japan's procurement of F-35 fighter jets from the United States. Significance Japan is to purchase 105 additional F-35 stealth fighter aircraft from the United States, giving it the world’s second-largest fleet. Impacts Deployment of F-35s sends China a strong message that Japan will not be coerced by its neighbour’s growing maritime power. Buying the aircraft will help Tokyo cultivate Washington at a time of heightened tension over trade. There is a risk that Japan’s defence industry might lose some capabilities since it will not produce the planes itself.

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