Deeper Finnish-US defence ties would irritate Russia

Subject Finnish-US defence agreement. Significance In response to growing Russian assertiveness in the Baltic Sea region since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, Finland has pursued closer cooperation with NATO and the United States. It signed a bilateral cooperation agreement with the United States on October 7. Impacts Cooperation in areas such as training and exercises, information sharing and joint research and development will increase. The agreement does not include any binding mutual defence commitments. Finland is likely to push for greater defence cooperation with the EU.

Subject Sweden-US defence cooperation. Significance The defence cooperation agreement signed on June 8 between the United States and Sweden lends political weight and direction to a bilateral defence and security relationship that is rapidly changing and has taken on new importance in both Stockholm and Washington as the security situation in the Baltic Sea region continues to be turbulent and contested. The agreement will enable more direct bilateral cooperation between the United States and Sweden in the fields of training and exercises, capabilities development, research and development, and industrial collaboration. Impacts Regular exercises with NATO allies and security partners like Sweden will see greater numbers of US troops in the Baltic region. Industrial collaboration between Swedish and US defence firms will present commercial opportunities. Finland may pursue a similar bilateral framework for security cooperation with the United States.


Baltic Region ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 4-22
Author(s):  
V. N Konyshev ◽  
E. M. Skvortsova

Defence cooperation between Poland and the United States significantly affects the security agenda of Russia, the Baltic region, and Europe as a whole. On the one hand, Poland intends to become a key partner of the US in ensuring European security. On the other hand, it has ambitions to take the leading position in the security area among the Baltic States. The Polish leadership sees an additional advantage in expanding military cooperation with the United States, regarding it as a jumping board to accelerating its economic and technological development. This article examines a mechanism underlying defence cooperation between the US and Poland, i.e. lobbying Poland’s interests in another state. This allows Warsaw to actively promote its interests in the US. The research methodology employed includes the periodisation of Polish lobbying activities in the US and an empirical study of lobbying based on analysis of original documents, many of which have been analysed for the first time. It is shown that, under the existing party system, Poland will not abandon strategic partnership with the United States, primarily in security and defence. Over the study period, Poland quickly gained experience in promoting its interests in the US through direct lobbying, showing flexibility in negotiations, relying on the two-party support in the US Congress, successfully coordinating the activities of its governing bodies and various corporations which are submitted to tight state control.


Significance The deal was one of a number of key agreements that Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed during his visit to Tehran on May 23. The visit aimed to advance relations following the lifting of sanctions on Iran in January, and a decade of missed opportunities and rising suspicion in relations between Tehran and Delhi. Impacts Expanding energy and trade ties will support Iran's efforts to diversify its economy and trade relationships. Building economic ties with India will help the normalisation of Tehran's international relations. India will limit security and defence cooperation with Iran in order to avoid alienating Israel, Gulf states and the United States.


Subject Outlook for Nordic-NATO defence cooperation. Significance The Russian intervention in Ukraine and assertive stance against NATO -- particular in the Baltic Sea region -- has pushed the Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden to reassess their defence and security policies in order to be better prepared to manage crises and deter aggression in northern Europe. This constitutes a sharp change in strategic outlook, as the Nordic-Baltic region has been characterised by low tensions, stability and continued economic and political integration since the end of the Cold War. Impacts Nordic participation in multilateral international operations may wane as their defence focus shifts to the Baltic region. Scandinavian procurement programmes present commercial opportunities to defence and aerospace firms. Prioritising bilateral security arrangements may fragment a unified US-Nordics approach to regional security. Closer security ties with the West are likely to compromise Scandinavia's negotiating position with Moscow on other issues.


Subject Swedish and Finnish defence policy. Significance Sweden and Finland have intensified defence cooperation in recent years, most recently by signing a defence pact on July 9. This comes on top of other efforts to promote stronger Nordic defence collaboration with neighbouring Denmark and Norway, the Baltic states, as well as with the United States and NATO around regional security issues. Impacts Russia is likely to use airspace violations to test Swedish and Finnish military readiness. While Sweden and Finland will deepen collaboration with NATO, membership remains off the table for the foreseeable future. Finland supports stronger EU defence initiatives such as PESCO. Sweden has traditionally been sceptical of EU efforts but has adopted a more positive view over the past two years.


Significance The deployment of Russia's latest tactical missile in Kaliningrad adds to the destabilising risks in a region encompassing the Baltic states, Poland and Belarus. The Polish defence ministry has asked the United States to deploy an armoured division there on a permanent basis. Impacts The July 11-12 NATO summit may offer clearer direction on East European strategy if members can reach agreement. Nordic states will shape their defence policies with a view to Russia's Baltic build-up. Moscow's view of whether reinforcing Kaliningrad is sufficient will dictate future policy towards Belarus.


Subject EU defence cooperation. Significance The adoption by the European Council on December 11, 2017, of the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) mechanism marks a significant step towards a European defence union as proposed by the Commission. How well this and other EU defence cooperation initiatives are implemented in 2018 will be crucial for their ultimate success. Impacts The latest EU defence initiatives could incentivise new cooperation frameworks between member states. New initiatives and funding mechanisms could help foster defence industry consolidation in Europe. Europe could gradually expand its ability to operate more independently of NATO and the United States. EU initiatives could complement NATO efforts by helping to counter hybrid warfare and in supporting military mobility across Europe.


Significance The Zapad-2017 exercises, held in Belarus and north-western Russia, ended without incident on September 20. They underlined Moscow's capacity to wage conventional war in Europe and its ability to deploy large number of troops in Belarus at short notice. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin attended different parts of the exercises in their own countries, symbolising (even if inadvertently) the gulf between them. Impacts The scale and relevance of the Zapad exercises will encourage the United States to strengthen its presence on NATO's eastern fringes. The Eastern Partnership offers the EU and Belarus a framework for building closer ties. Ukraine will seek opportunities for greater defence cooperation with NATO, although accession is not an option.


Significance The debate around European defence integration has surfaced periodically over past decades, but progress has fallen short of expectations. Brexit and the elections of Presidents Emmanuel Macron in France and Donald Trump in the United States have given fresh impetus to attempts to strengthen EU cooperation. Impacts Countries such as Italy and Poland will press the EU to devote more resources to their specific security-related challenges. For now, Brexit appears unlikely to affect the strong UK-French industrial arrangements in the defence sector. Defence cooperation will proceed primarily through further research and development cooperation.


Subject Outlook for India-US ties. Significance US President Donald Trump’s visit to India last month provided a boost to India-US ties. The trip came at a time when bilateral relations are coming under some strain over trade, defence and Kashmir. Impacts India and the United States may soon sign a Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement, paving the way for greater military cooperation. A commitment that Washington and Delhi made to work together on disease outbreaks will provide opportunities for cooperation over COVID-19. Intensifying street protests and violence in India could dissuade some US investors from doing business there.


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