The risks surrounding ECB stimulus withdrawal are high
Subject Monetary divergence Significance After reaching multi-year highs in the second half of 2017, euro-area manufacturing and services surveys are now signposting slower growth. Meanwhile, euro strength is dampening inflation pressures. Thus the ECB will be cautious in its plans to ‘normalise’ its ultra-loose monetary policy. Impacts The euro has gained 15% against the dollar over the past twelve months; growing divergence with US policy will fuel further strength. Further euro strength is likely to put more downward pressure on euro-area core inflation and could damage export competitiveness. Markets are likely to remain volatile; the S&P 500 equity index is experiencing its second-most volatile year outside a bear market. Investors’ appetite for ‘risk assets’ will remain strong; 65 billion dollars has gone into emerging market bond and equity funds in 2018.