Southern Thai insurgency may become internationalised

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Major Threat ◽  
Southern Thailand

Subject Risks associated with Thailand's southern insurgency. Significance Late last month, Malay-Muslim separatist insurgents in southern Thailand launched coordinated attacks across four provinces. Thailand’s southern insurgency, which was renewed in 2004, has to date been a local conflict, disassociated from international Islamist militancy. Countries across South-east Asia are facing security risks from Islamic State (IS)-affiliated groups. Impacts Signs of the insurgency becoming internationalised would raise the pressure on ASEAN to develop a coherent counterterrorism strategy. Thailand’s military-led government will be preoccupied with curbing anti-junta protests ahead of the elections. Violence in southern Thailand would not be a major threat to tourism in the country, with most tourist centres located elsewhere.

South-east Asia lacks unified riposte to Islamic State

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Civil Liberties ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Legal Frameworks

Subject South-east Asia's regional response to Islamic State. Significance South-east Asian countries face security risks from Islamic State (IS)-affiliated militants. States are seeking to coordinate action at a region-wide level, with the ASEAN-Australia Special Summit last month including a parallel Counter-Terrorism Conference. Impacts Washington will likely use support for counterterrorism to develop defence relations in South-east Asia. Tougher legal frameworks to combat terrorism could result in laws that constrain civil liberties. For Australia, stronger ties with ASEAN could encourage a more conciliatory approach to the region’s autocratic regimes.

Online extremism poses new threats to South-east Asia

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Suicide Bombings ◽  
The Military

Subject Online radicalisation. Significance On May 25, the Indonesian parliament unanimously passed stringent anti-terrorism laws allowing the military to be directly involved in counterterrorism operations. The vote followed a string of suicide bombings attributed to local jihadist networks that have pledged allegiance to Islamic State (IS). Jakarta joins other South-east Asian governments -- notably those of Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore -- in attempting to counter a new push in the region by IS, as it loses territory in Iraq and Syria. Impacts Rising anti-Shia sentiment in the region, a by-product of increased Saudi influence, will likely give IS new issues to exploit. The Rohingya crisis gives IS a regional boost, especially in terms of operations in Myanmar and more likely in Yangon than Rakhine State. Non-ideological, low-wage overseas workers, particularly from the Philippines and Indonesia, are most susceptible to IS.

Uighur militants complicate China-South-east Asia ties

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Refugee Status ◽  
Suicide Bomber ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Domestic Security ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
State Group

Subject Some Uighurs have developed links to Islamic State group and travelled to South-east Asia with terrorist intent Significance In December, Indonesia's counterterrorism force arrested eleven men on suspicion of having links to Islamic State group (ISG) and planning terrorist attacks against Indonesia. One of the suspects was a Chinese Uighur who had allegedly been trained as a suicide bomber, while two other Uighur suspects escaped. These developments question South-east Asian governments' assumption about the threat of 'home grown' terrorism by South-east Asian ISG fighters returning from the Middle East. The presence of Uighurs in potential attacks on South-east Asian targets underscores the region's particular vulnerability to ISG. Impacts Anti-Uighur measures carry limited political risks for South-east Asian leaders. China will demand the return of Uighur migrants even if they have applied for, or been granted, refugee status. South-east Asian regional governments will be uneasy with greater Chinese intrusion into their domestic security.

China vote will spur South-east Asian authoritarianism

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Political Systems ◽  
Major Barrier ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Illiberal Democracy ◽  
Human Rights Abuse ◽  
Democratic Systems ◽  
People's Congress

Subject Authoritarian drift in South-east Asia. Significance China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) on March 11 removed the constitutional limits on presidential tenure, enabling President Xi Jinping to remain in power indefinitely. Neighbouring South-east Asia has a broad spectrum of political systems, from democracies to one-party states, but several countries in the region are seeing a drift towards authoritarianism: enforcement of strict obedience to authority with curbs on individual freedoms. Impacts ASEAN will adhere to non-interference in the internal affairs of member states, eschewing its previous ‘flexible engagement’ doctrine. Popular tolerance for human rights abuse presages ‘illiberal democracy’ rather than the abandonment of formal democracy. Radical Islamist groups, partly inspired by an Islamic State presence, will challenge democratic systems in the region. The international community will step up criticism of Myanmar’s treatment of Rohingya Muslims to little avail. The Myanmar military’s unchallenged authority in Rakhine State will be a major barrier to resolving the Rohingya crisis.

ASEAN summits will build anti-ISG capacity

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
East Asia ◽  
South China ◽  
Code Of Conduct ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Sea ◽  
Intelligence Sharing ◽  
State Group

Significance This year's summits, which conclude on November 22, will have particular resonance following soon after the November 13 coordinated massacres in Paris, claimed by Islamic State group (ISG). Impacts Despite rising pressure on China, a deal on a South China Sea Code of Conduct remains distant. A Paris-style 'mass marauder' attack could occur in South-east Asia. ASEAN states will probably use the Defence Ministers' Meeting to expand anti-ISG intelligence-sharing and defence collaboration.

International jihadist terrorism is still potent

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
East Asia ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Combat Experience ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Jihadist Terrorism

Subject Jihadist terrorism in the past year. Significance Developments in terrorist groups in the past year were marked by Islamic State (IS)’s military 'defeat' in Syria and, in parallel, expansion into South-east Asia and West Africa via the emergence of new ‘provinces’; al-Qaida (AQ)’s consolidation and growing capabilities via opportunistic local collaborations; and concerns over Jemaah Islamiyah (JI)’s resurgence in Indonesia. Impacts Targeting of places of worship in South-east Asia may become an entrenched trend. AQIM will keep trying to exploit socio-political grievances in the Maghreb region and Mali. Despite its losses, IS has more money, better media profile and more combat experience than AQ.

Islamic State threat to Indonesia is changing

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
East Asia ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group

Subject Islamic State threat in Indonesia. Significance The attack against a police post and a Starbucks on Thamrin Road in Jakarta on January 14 has resulted in tighter counterterrorism measures, including arrests of suspects and a crackdown against media outlets promoting Islamic State group (ISG). More controversially, the government is considering harsher counterterrorism laws. Impacts The ISG threat in South-east Asia exists independently of a future wave of returning fighters. Greater powers for security forces will be unpopular as these agencies have previously been accused of human rights abuses. Security agencies are likely to be under-resourced.

Washington will engage more with South-east Asia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Asia ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Key Issues ◽  
Set Up

Significance She addressed two key issues during her trip: tensions in post-coup Myanmar and China’s growing regional footprint. Shortly after she left the region, the United States announced that it would donate unused COVID-19 vaccines abroad, including to South-east Asia. Impacts Washington will tighten its sanctions on the Myanmar military while supporting ASEAN’s five-point plan to ease the country’s crisis. The National Unity Government, a parallel administration to Myanmar’s junta set up by its opponents, will try to attract greater US backing. Manila and Washington may extend negotiations over renewing their Visiting Forces Agreement to prevent the pact expiring in August.

Parts of South-east Asia may adopt nuclear post-2030

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Energy Development ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electricity Grid ◽  
Renewable Energy Development

Significance It is the only country in South-east Asia with a large-scale nuclear plant, although this was never loaded with fuel. Other countries in the region have tentative plans to develop nuclear power programmes. Impacts The current absence of nuclear power programmes will help avert the diversion of capital from renewable energy development in the region. South-east Asian countries with small, non-power reactors, built for research, will try to maintain these facilities. Across the region, the need for electricity grid investment will increase as more decentralised generation sources are deployed.

London will deepen engagement with South-east Asia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
East Asia ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Aircraft Carrier ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Defence Cooperation

Significance The United Kingdom eyes a strategic tilt to the Indo-Pacific, with South-east Asia a key focus because of its economic dynamism and the convening power of ASEAN. The aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth will deploy to the Indo-Pacific for six months later this year. Impacts The United Kingdom’s view of China as a systemic challenger makes a trade pact between the two countries unlikely. UK efforts to conclude a trade deal with India will be frustrated by Delhi’s protectionist approach. London will pursue closer defence cooperation with Tokyo.

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