Early oil could stabilise Uganda’s economy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Convergence Criteria ◽  
East African ◽  
Tax Base ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Public Investments ◽  
Community Convergence ◽  
African Community ◽  
Near Term

Subject Uganda economic outlook. Significance Economic growth could improve to 5.8% in 2018, aided by a recovery in private consumption and increased spending on oil-related and public investments. However, the mounting external debt burden amid the US Federal Reserve’s interest-rate tightening cycle could pose near-term challenges, as the shilling’s weakness compounds the government’s growing debt-service obligations. Nevertheless, if managed well, these concerns should ease once oil begins to flow. Impacts Stubbornly high commercial lending rates despite lower policy rates pose the greatest impediment to long-term sustainable growth. The climbdown on potentially lucrative mobile money taxes suggests reluctance to widen the tax base at the risk of social unrest. Currency interventions will be limited by East African Community convergence criteria requiring reserves worth 4.5 months of imports.

Sovereignty fears may sink East Africa monetary union

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Convergence Criteria ◽  
East African ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Trade Dispute ◽  
Political Crises ◽  
African Community ◽  
The Eu

Subject Progress in towards an East African monetary union. Significance In November 2013, East African Community (EAC) partner states endorsed the East African Monetary Union (EAMU) Protocol, outlining plans for full monetary union by 2024. For the union to happen, at least three partner states must be willing to cede their monetary policy independence. Furthermore, EAC states have agreed to certain convergence criteria that they will need to meet. Impacts Closer economic and political integration will offer benefits to the EAC even without a monetary union. Domestic taxes will be insufficient to fund projects, forcing increased borrowing to the detriment of convergence criteria. Worsening political crises in South Sudan and Burundi may erode their regional standing and complicate diplomacy. Kenya and Tanzania’s current trade dispute with the EU foreshadows larger regional economic clashes ahead.

East African regional relations face a period of flux

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
East African ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Nile Basin Initiative ◽  
African Community

Significance This may have a profound effect on East Africa’s two main regional blocs -- the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the East African Community (EAC). Impacts Trade tensions fuelled by incompatible COVID-19 strategies could ease after Burundi and Tanzania changed tack. Tanzanian re-engagement could help reinvigorate stalled regional infrastructure projects. Ethiopia may try to revive region-wide Nile Basin Initiative water talks, partly to isolate Egypt, partly to restore its own standing.

Isolation and drift mar Kenya's foreign policy outlook

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Water Security ◽  
Criminal Court ◽  
East African ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Oil Pipeline ◽  
External Relations ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
African Community ◽  
The Eu

Subject Outlook for Kenya's external relations. Significance Last week, Uganda overrode its oil pipeline agreement with Kenya by agreeing a rival deal with Tanzania in a major setback for Kenya's ambitions to lead economic integration in the East African Community (EAC), while boosting its own oil export plans. It comes amid several other external challenges, notably the deputy president's case at the International Criminal Court (ICC) and overspill from the Somali conflict. Impacts Deals signed during the president's visit to Israel will likely result in skills and technology transfer to improve Kenya's water security. Recent US airstrikes against an al-Shabaab training site in Somalia will boost the AMISOM mission. However, the EU decision to cut AMISOM funding by 20% will pose longer-term difficulties unless regional states find substitute funding.

Burundi crisis is set to escalate

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East African ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East African Community ◽  
African Community ◽  
Financial Contributions

Significance Violence has increased significantly since President Pierre Nkurunziza was inaugurated in August. The country is under growing international spotlight as fears are growing that the crisis is adopting an ethnic dimension. However, there are more important factors shaping the chances for escalation. Impacts Nkurunziza is unlikely to take on the East African Community (EAC) chairmanship as scheduled at end-November, disrupting regional protocol. The EAC's budget faces strain as Burundi fails to clear its financial contributions and donors consider pulling some funding. Refugee flows from Burundi will rise, straining existing tensions with neighbouring states.

Kenya-Tanzania tensions will simmer

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
East African ◽  
Trade Disputes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East African Community ◽  
African Community

Significance The trade disputes are emblematic of the difficult relationship between Nairobi and Dodoma, which has been aggravated in recent years by mutual recriminations alleging interference in one another’s elections. These tensions are shaped by deeper rivalries between the two countries, as a rising Tanzania seeks to challenge Kenyan political and economic dominance. Impacts The Tanzanian president’s quick congratulations to Kenyatta, before Odinga has conceded, may take some heat out of interference claims. The East African Community (EAC)'s failure to end the bilateral trade rows will damage its claims to be able to resolve internal disputes. Tensions will slow EAC integration, making plans for currency integration even more remote.

Uganda-Rwanda tensions will inflame regional relations

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Consensus Building ◽  
African Union ◽  
East African ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
Border Trade ◽  
Republic Of The Congo ◽  
African Community

Subject Uganda-Rwanda bilateral relations. Significance Rwanda and Uganda have held a series of meetings aimed at defusing tensions following a string of controversial deportations of Rwandans from Uganda. The highest profile saw Rwandan President Paul Kagame meet Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni on the sidelines of the African Union Summit on January 28. Following the discussion, exchanges of hostile rhetoric have eased. However, relations remain fragile, and the recent friction has inflamed deep-seated antagonisms. Impacts Regional crises in Burundi and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) could become a further point of contention. Uganda-Rwanda frictions may hamper consensus-building in the already-divided East African Community. A spike in tensions could impact cross-border trade and tourism.

East Africa politics mars region's crisis role

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
East African ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East African Community ◽  
African Community ◽  
Step Down

Significance Opposition parties reject the new dates, stating that their main demand is for Nkurunziza to step down before polls take place. The new dates adhere to East African Community (EAC) recommendations to delay elections. While the regional bloc may have more influence over Burundi than other external players, it will struggle to play an effective diplomatic role in ending the political crisis. Impacts A prolonged crisis will worsen a poorly performing economy, which is heavily dependent on foreign support. Belgium, the largest donor, may cut further bilateral support should Nkurunziza secure a third mandate. Economic disruption continues to hurt agricultural supply chains across the country, risking food security.

Economic goals will deepen Kenyan-Tanzanian divide

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Agreement ◽  
East African ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Bilateral Agreements ◽  
Cast Doubt ◽  
African Community ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Eu

Subject Outlook for Kenyan-Tanzanian relations. Significance The Kenyan and Tanzanian governments in early September continued disagreements over a trade agreement with the EU. The deteriorating relationship comes at a time when the stability of the East African Community (EAC) is already strained by other crises. Impacts Attempts to forge bilateral agreements within the bloc or with non-EAC states could cast doubt on the EAC's future. Uncertainty over the long-term future of the EAC will worry investors and could reduce investment. Tensions lower the probability of instating a common currency in East Africa by 2024. Domestic political pressures could push Kenyan and Tanzanian leaders to demonise each other as a distraction.

Regional lead could be key to Burundian peace efforts

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Threat ◽  
East African ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Security Services ◽  
High Profile ◽  
African Community ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Partnership Agreement ◽  
The Eu

Subject Burundian peace efforts. Significance On May 25, efforts to renew the Inter-Burundian Dialogue (IBD) ended in failure after chairperson Benjamin Mkapa, former president of Tanzania, refused to allow several high-profile Burundian civil society leaders to take part. The decision is the latest reason why opposition groups believe Mkapa should be removed from his position. Meanwhile, current Tanzanian President John Magufuli has argued that members of the East African Community (EAC) should refuse to back the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the EU until sanctions against Burundi are scrapped. Impacts President Pierre Nkurunziza may further purge the security services of ‘disloyal’ officers. Armed opposition groups based in the DRC will pose an increasing security threat. The ongoing crisis will hinder Bujumbura’s ability to respond to food and fuel shortages. The ruling party’s youth wing, the Imbonerakure, may intensify both violent actions and rhetoric.

Rwanda-Burundi tensions threaten regional stability

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Political Integration ◽  
East African ◽  
Regional Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Republic Of The Congo ◽  
African Community ◽  
Armed Opposition Groups

Subject Rwanda-Burundi tensions. Significance Following months of angry exchanges, in late January, Rwanda issued a series of arrest warrants against individuals allegedly involved in armed opposition groups based in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). It accuses Burundi of supporting those groups. Burundi in turn accuses Rwanda of supporting Burundian armed opposition groups in the DRC. Impacts The tensions will put more strain on the East African Community, which has struggled to strengthen security and political integration. The tensions will be especially detrimental to Burundi’s economy, which has been crippled by years of turmoil and isolation. Rwanda-Uganda tensions have also risen over recent years, but there are indications that Rwanda may look to de-escalate here.

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