Intensified Kurdish attacks will not shake Tehran

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Level ◽  
External Support ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Border Areas

Significance Clashes between Iranian Kurds and the IRGC increased this year following the loss of territory by Islamic State (IS) in Iraq, a new Turkish military assault in Iraqi border areas where many groups were based and the emergence of wider protests in Iran. Washington’s rejection of the 2015 multilateral Iran nuclear deal in May has also opened up new opportunities for Iranian Kurdish parties to seek US backing. Impacts Sanctions combined with long-term economic and ecological crises will result in more national-level protests. Kurdish groups will increase military attacks, but this will not fundamentally change the security situation. Lack of unity among Iranian Kurdish groups will hinder their effectiveness, including in winning external support.

Iraq’s disputed Sinjar will be a long-term flashpoint

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Service Provision ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Border Areas ◽  
The Government

Significance Iraq’s president on March 8 ratified a law mandating reparations for Yazidi women enslaved and trafficked by Islamic State (IS). However, efforts to improve the security situation in Yazidi-majority areas such as Sinjar are floundering, amid deep disputes between Baghdad, Erbil and Ankara. Impacts Plans to boost federal-KRG cooperation in disputed border areas will focus on areas of stronger IS resurgence such as Diyala. Other minorities targeted by IS will push for reparations similar to those promised to Yazidis. Many Yazidis will remain displaced, and some will be unwilling to return while the YBS retains its dominant role. Returns and normalisation will depend on funds for infrastructure rebuilding and service provision, which have seen scant progress. If Ankara were to intervene directly in Sinjar, that would radically weaken the credibility of the government in Baghdad.

scholarly journals Winning the global talent war

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
William S. Harvey
Keyword(s):  
Institutional Environment ◽  
National Level ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Green Card ◽  
Cultural Roots ◽  
Talent Strategy ◽  
Recent Reform ◽  
International Comparative

Purpose – The purpose of this article was to discuss the phenomenon of international talent mobility and competition in relation to China's engagement in the “talent war” for attracting, retaining and managing global talents, from a policy perspective. Design/methodology/approach – The author adopts an approach combining literature review and international comparative analysis. Findings – Factors explaining global talent mobility have been predominantly economic. This paper argues that China should also focus on other critical non-economic aspects for attracting and retaining talents in the long-term. The Chinese Government may learn from the experience of other competing countries in developing a national strategy for attracting and retaining global talents. While China has an advantage in attracting overseas Chinese who are attached to its cultural roots and are other competing countries' residents or citizens, its existing talent policy may not be able to create effective local and institutional environment in attracting and retaining needed talents. Practical implications – An attractive policy is key to winning the global talent war and determining the future development path of a nation. The talent policy at a national level should address not only economic factors but also personal, professional and institutional factors. Originality/value – Winning the global talent war is a policy competition among countries. The Chinese Government may succeed in the war for talent by adopting a multi-pronged, multi-level and long-term talent strategy. This paper calls for China to reconsider its recent reform on permanent residence (green card) policy reform from a global talent competition perspective.

Russia is expanding its military options in Syria

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Training ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Active Role ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Support ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
State Group

Subject Russia's diversified military capacity in Syria. Significance Russian armed forces played an active role in the Syrian government's recapture of Palmyra in March, despite the partial withdrawal of Russian aircraft from Syria. As well as air strikes, months of Russian military training and arms deliveries enhanced the Syrian army's combat capacity, contributing to a rapid collapse of Islamic State group (ISG) resistance. The operation showed how Russia has widened the instruments available: it can scale conventional air strikes up or down, provide fire support from helicopters or artillery, and use these elements to compensate for deficiencies in the Syrian military, while supplying weaponry, training and coordination to local forces. Impacts Russian military support can ensure the Syrian regime's survival, but that will require a long-term presence. The recapture of Aleppo would constitute a near fatal blow to the Syrian rebel movement. The Russian military will learn lessons about weaponry and coordination from the Syrian operation. Elements of these lessons including control of proxy forces may be applied in future foreign interventions. The use of mercenaries, trialled in Syria, offers Moscow a useful and deniable instrument abroad.

Islamic State defeat would bolster Libya's government

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Militant Groups ◽  
The City

Significance Although resistance will likely be fiercer in the centre of the city, particularly from ISG snipers and booby traps, the spokesman was confident that they would take control of the city within days. Impacts Removing ISG bases from Libya is likely to benefit Tunisia in the long term -- most terrorist attacks there were organised in Libya. However, the dispersal of experienced ISG fighters could see them spread into the Sahel and join other militant groups. This could mean an increase in terrorist attacks elsewhere in the region, especially more vulnerable states such as Mali and Niger.

External interference raises risk of Libya escalation

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
External Support ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
External Interference ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Production

Significance The report outlines that the UAE expanded Haftar's airpower significantly. Egypt has also been a staunch supporter: in late May it carried out airstrikes against positions held by the LNA's enemies. External support for Haftar has bolstered his position and arguably eroded chances for dialogue. Impacts A siege situation could emerge around cities like Misrata. Extremist jihadis, such as al-Qaida and Islamic State (IS), could take advantage of new fighting to stage a comeback. The country's crude oil production will be volatile, especially if violence disrupts oil production in western Libya.

Middle East jihadist splits will widen despite defeats

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
The Other ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Syrian Conflict ◽  
Hostile Attitude

Significance However, even in this extremity, it maintains a hostile attitude to old enemy Islamic State (IS). In Yemen, the other regional country where the two come into close contact, the local al-Qaida branch in its August 28 newsletter also strongly attacked IS, accusing it of fomenting intra-Muslim divisions. Impacts Even those al-Qaida supporters claiming to see a more ‘moderate’ trend in IS only identify a long-term possibility of rapprochement. As the Syrian conflict winds down, IS and HTS may step up competition, as insurgent cells launch terrorist attacks from desert bases. Splits between the different al-Qaida branches could worsen as some seek more pragmatic alliances and others prioritise ideological purity. In Yemen, al-Qaida’s deeper societal roots will give it greater long-term resilience than IS.

Burkina Faso’s government may explore peace talks

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Burkina Faso ◽  
National Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Initiatives

Significance Re-elected President Roch Marc Christian Kabore, who previously opposed the idea, has indirectly sent signals through surrogates that he is open to exploring dialogue. Nowhere in the Sahel, however, has there yet emerged a promising formula for national-level dialogue with jihadists over issues other than very narrow, transactional matters such as hostage releases. Impacts Momentum towards negotiations in Burkina Faso and Mali could spur renewed conversations about negotiations in Niger. Whether national-level conversations about dialogue can align with and bolster local initiatives in Mali and elsewhere could prove pivotal. Sahelian leaders may rethink their long-term security strategies given the sense that France's 'Operation Barkhane' will end at some point.

Middle East Islamist movements fragment under pressure

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Islam ◽  
The Political ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Term Stability ◽  
Sudden Rise ◽  
The One ◽  
State Group ◽  
Islamist Movements

Significance Almost two years on from Morsi's removal from office in 2013 mainstream Islamist movements in the region find themselves caught between an authoritarian crackdown led by Egypt and the Gulf on the one hand, and the sudden rise of Islamic State group (ISG) on the other. With political participation discredited, these two pressures are forcing Muslim Brotherhood-inspired movements to revise ideology and strategy as they compete to maintain and expand their constituencies. Impacts Mainstream Islamists will remain a significant political force in the region, but take years to regroup. Long-term stability will depend on allowing non-violent Islamists access to the political sphere. Younger Islamists will be increasingly attracted to radical ideologies. Egypt's slide into a more oppressive police state will continue. Saudi Arabia has put aside differences with Qatar and Turkey over political Islam for now -- but the dispute could resurface.

War against Islamic State to last years in Iraq, Syria

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
International Terrorism ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
The Us ◽  
Terrorism Threat ◽  
Foreign Fighters

Significance Zamili's remarks appear to signal Iraqi government concerns that the US-led international air campaign against the group is not going well. The effectiveness of airstrikes has been constrained by poor intelligence and strict rules of engagement; efforts to support local ground forces are at a standstill; and Iraqi offensive operations have virtually ground to a halt. Impacts Russia's strong intervention into Syria will not break the stalemate in either the fight against ISG or the Syrian civil war. The huge costs of a protracted campaign against ISG will further weaken Iraq's medium-term fiscal outlook. ISG's survival will limit Syrian Kurdish ambitions to establish a contiguous territory across northern Syria. It will also contain Syrian rebel forces, ensuring that the stalemate in the Syrian civil war continues. Continued flow of foreign fighters to Iraq and Syria will ensure international terrorism threat persist over the long term.

World-class broadband

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 189-209
Author(s):  
Ewan Sutherland
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
National Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Design Improvement ◽  
Governance Systems ◽  
National Performance ◽  
World Class ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This paper aims to examine the aspiration to world-class broadband in a number of countries. Design/methodology/approach This study includes a review of the various approaches taken by countries, consultants and intergovernmental organisations. Findings The term “world class” is used relatively vaguely, without any significant link to long-term improvements in national performance, rather to an aspiration to being close to the leaders. Research limitations/implications The use of benchmarking in lobbying needs further study, as does the quality of lobbying. Practical implications Governments need to make explicit their policy aims in addition to any world-class headline and need to aim for design improvement in their governance systems. Originality/value This is the first review of benchmarking of broadband at the national level.

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