Iraq’s disputed Sinjar will be a long-term flashpoint
Significance Iraq’s president on March 8 ratified a law mandating reparations for Yazidi women enslaved and trafficked by Islamic State (IS). However, efforts to improve the security situation in Yazidi-majority areas such as Sinjar are floundering, amid deep disputes between Baghdad, Erbil and Ankara. Impacts Plans to boost federal-KRG cooperation in disputed border areas will focus on areas of stronger IS resurgence such as Diyala. Other minorities targeted by IS will push for reparations similar to those promised to Yazidis. Many Yazidis will remain displaced, and some will be unwilling to return while the YBS retains its dominant role. Returns and normalisation will depend on funds for infrastructure rebuilding and service provision, which have seen scant progress. If Ankara were to intervene directly in Sinjar, that would radically weaken the credibility of the government in Baghdad.