Graft scandal undermines Dominican re-election plans

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Construction Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
The Government ◽  
Protest Activity

Subject Anti-corruption protests. Significance Major anti-corruption marches in August underlined ongoing popular frustration with the slow progress of official investigations into the Odebrecht corruption scandal. While President Daniel Medina has pledged to investigate all wrongdoing and bring culprits to justice, few formal prosecutions have yet been launched. Popular disillusionment with the government could therefore threaten Medina’s plans for a constitutional reform to permit unlimited presidential re-election. Impacts Marcha Verde is likely to step up its protest activity as pre-campaigning begins for the 2020 elections. Ongoing political noise about corruption could deter some investment, particularly in the construction sector. US relations may suffer due to the OFAC action against Bautista, and the cutting of diplomatic ties with Taiwan.

Battle to stop Ecuador re-election reform intensifies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Public Institutions ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Election Reform ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Decision Making

Subject The outlook for constitutional reform and presidential re-election. Significance Since the government announced its intention to revise the constitution to allow President Rafael Correa to seek re-election in 2017, the opposition has resisted the move. Various parties and coalitions have attempted to call a referendum on the issue using mechanisms in the 2008 constitution to enable greater public participation in political decision-making. The government has used its influence over public institutions to block a referendum, fearing defeat at the polls. The outcome of the conflict remains unclear six months on from when the proposal was first announced. Impacts The fragmentation of the opposition will bolster government attempts to rebuff demands for a referendum. Denying the public the opportunity to vote on constitutional reform will undermine the legitimacy of the president and government. The economic fallout from low oil prices will complicate the government's political situation and allow for opposition gains.

Gabon's president will consolidate his power

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Term Limits ◽  
African Union ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
The Government

Subject Gabonese constitutional controversy Significance The Gabonese parliament and senate, dominated by the ruling Gabonese Democratic Party (PDG), unanimously passed a revised constitution on January 10. The new constitution will reportedly not include term limits, while providing President Ali Bongo with immunity from future prosecution. The opposition, led by former African Union (AU) Commission Chairperson Jean Ping, has rejected the document and described it as a setback for democracy. Impacts The legislative elections could face a fourth postponement given the slow progress in poll preparations. The government could enter the Eurobond market once more after raising 200 million dollars in an oversubscribed August issue. Bongo's administration will likely prioritise domestic over external debtors as part of a broader plan to stimulate the economy.

Ukraine talks will resume with glacially slow progress

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
External Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
Break Up ◽  
The Government

Significance French President Emmanuel Macron initiated the call, signalling a determination to revive the four-party 'Normandy format' talks which had ground to a halt. Kyiv lodged a formal protest with the UN on July 21 at what it called an "intensification of Russia's aggressive actions", following an upsurge in clashes with rebel forces that left nine Ukrainian soldiers dead. Impacts Kyiv's caution on making disadvantageous concessions exposes it to external pressure to contribute more to the peace process. If the government has to make concessions on the conflict, political push-back could break up the ruling bloc and force early elections. Lack of progress in resolving the conflict will preserve but not strengthen sanctions against Russia.

Tanzanian demands for constitutional reform will grow

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Review Process ◽  
Executive Branch ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future ◽  
Unstable Environment ◽  
The Government

Subject Tanzanian constitutional reform Significance Political, religious and civil society leaders are calling for constitutional reform before the 2020 elections. These demands are underpinned by rising fears for the future of Tanzania’s multi-party democracy, which add to existing concerns over the concentration of power in the executive branch. Impacts A new constitution will be an opportunity to enshrine popular resource-nationalist principles behind recent natural resources legislation. The issue of Zanzibar's place in the union will come to the fore, creating an unstable environment for the 2020 elections there. The government will likely ease repression of dissenting voices in order to give a review process credibility.

Greece will seek to profit from pent-up tourist demand

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Construction Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Expected Performance ◽  
Hospitality Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Tourist Demand ◽  
High Level ◽  
Tourism Services

Significance Despite a stronger-than-expected performance by the Greek hospitality sector during the summer months, 2021 will be a challenging year. The government hopes that it will return to pre-pandemic levels ahead of its competitors as early as next year, when the season will be officially extended to March-November. Impacts A high level of uncertainty will delay new private investments in the Greek tourism sector. The rising number of tourists will necessitate additional infrastructure investment in 2022-23. An increased demand for tourism services will support the construction sector next year.

Reforms will strengthen Singapore opposition

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Local Politics ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Constitutional Changes ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Constitutional reform in Singapore. Significance Parliament is expected in August to receive recommendations on electoral and constitutional changes that will affect opposition politics and executive powers. The government raised the initiatives in parliament in January; Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said they would be beneficial to Singapore and its government. However, the measures are also likely to benefit the People's Action Party (PAP), which has ruled Singapore since independence in 1965. Impacts Presidential elections are unlikely to become more competitive. Opposition parties would gain parliamentary exposure if the reform recommendations are enacted. Government scrutiny of corporations' activities in the community and local politics will intensify.

Violence may weaken FARC's position in Colombia talks

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Forces ◽  
Public Image ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Confidence Measures ◽  
Colombian Government ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
The Government

Subject Colombia confidence measures Significance Following confidence-building measures (CBMs) and a rare period of cooperation between the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the Colombian government, a rebel attack in April has undermined the fragile trust. The government appears unmoved on the issue of a bilateral ceasefire and with each FARC attack damaging its public image, the rebels' acts of violence may prove counterproductive at the negotiating table. Impacts The FARC attack raises questions over the organisation's cohesion and its potential to fracture in the event of a peace agreement. Reduced trust between the government and the FARC could slow progress at the negotiation table and weaken the FARC's hand. Failure to secure a deal that mid-level commanders consider fair could encourage the group's fragmentation.

Burundian constitutional reform will deepen crisis

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Basic Needs ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Donors ◽  
The Government ◽  
Extrajudicial Killings ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Constitutional Changes

Subject Burundi constitutional reform Significance President Pierre Nkurunziza's third term has been marred by accusations of state-sponsored extrajudicial killings, a regional refugee crisis and international ostracism. Recently, he has launched a campaign to amend the constitution to allow him to run for the presidency again. The government has also hinted at other significant constitutional changes and restructurings of laws governing parties and politics. This would further contract Burundi’s democratic space, already in peril since a 2015 coup attempt and contested presidential election. Impacts Nkurunziza’s plans will face little opposition either from non-partisans within the ruling party or from the formal opposition. Despite deteriorating conditions, most international donors will provide only minimal levels of aid to meet basic needs. Without significant intervention, assassinations and disappearances linked to the regime will likely continue.

Thai military will try to avoid launching a coup

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Police Chief ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Protest Activity ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Beyond calling for Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s resignation, protesters have been challenging the military’s influence on politics and demanding reform of the monarchy. King Maha Vajiralongkorn and the army chief, Narongpan Jitkaewthae, have been silent on the protests since the decree was issued, while the police chief, Suwat Changyodsuk, has effectively been acting as a spokesman for the government. Impacts Continuing protests could set back plans to revive the tourism sector following its pandemic-related shutdown. Thai communities abroad will step up protest activity in solidarity with demonstrators in Thailand. Prayut will try to strengthen his governing coalition by encouraging defections from opposition parties.

Philippines tourism investment opportunities to grow

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Philippines ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Car Traffic ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Investment Opportunities ◽  
Metro Manila ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
The Government

Significance President Rodrigo Duterte's term ends in 2022; his administration is prioritising the development of the Philippines tourism sector. However, internal security could pose difficulties. Impacts Any infrastructure spending bottlenecks could undermine tourism development plans. New hotel construction will further concentrate tourist expenditure in Metro Manila, potentially worsening car traffic woes. The government is pushing for pro-foreign-investor constitutional reforms, but progress will likely be slow. The construction and ancillary sectors stand to gain from government tourism-sector spending. The Duterte tourism plans will likely achieve slow progress at best, partly over security concerns.

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