Gabon's president will consolidate his power

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Term Limits ◽  
African Union ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
The Government

Subject Gabonese constitutional controversy Significance The Gabonese parliament and senate, dominated by the ruling Gabonese Democratic Party (PDG), unanimously passed a revised constitution on January 10. The new constitution will reportedly not include term limits, while providing President Ali Bongo with immunity from future prosecution. The opposition, led by former African Union (AU) Commission Chairperson Jean Ping, has rejected the document and described it as a setback for democracy. Impacts The legislative elections could face a fourth postponement given the slow progress in poll preparations. The government could enter the Eurobond market once more after raising 200 million dollars in an oversubscribed August issue. Bongo's administration will likely prioritise domestic over external debtors as part of a broader plan to stimulate the economy.

Slovenia will remain polarised, whatever Jansa’s fate

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
European Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Council Presidency ◽  
The Eu

Significance The government led by the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) is under mounting pressure as Slovenia prepares to take over the European Council presidency. This is due mainly to hostility in parliament and society to Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who promotes a popular but divisive form of national conservatism. Impacts A successful no-confidence vote in the government followed by early elections would complicate Slovenia’s handling of its EU presidency. The fall of the current government and its replacement by the centre-left would improve Slovenia’s relations with the EU and United States. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban would lose an ally at EU level if Jansa lost office.

'Corrective' coups in Africa introduce policy dilemmas

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Burkina Faso ◽  
Cost Savings ◽  
Party Politics ◽  
Term Limits ◽  
Diplomatic Relations ◽  
African Union ◽  
Military Leaders ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Recent Trends

Subject Trends in approaches to coups in Africa. Significance Following the introduction of multi-party politics in the 1990s, Africa gradually developed an anti-coup norm. This was institutionalised by the African Union (AU): regimes that came to power unconstitutionally were automatically suspended from membership. More recent trends are challenging this principle. Coups in Mali (2012), Burkina Faso (2014) and a recent failed attempt in Burundi have seen military leaders claiming to have intervened to 'save democracy', usually removing from office presidents failing to respect term limits. Impacts The role of African armies in peace-keeping can embolden military elites who do not have the same priorities as their Western funders. Dependence on African armies for peace-keeping acts as a bargaining chip for elites to neutralise external criticism of domestic issues. Donors still prefer African-led missions, given cost savings and the utility to bolster diplomatic relations with African states.

Mauritanian president looks to entrench rule

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Government ◽  
Term Limits ◽  
Constitutional Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Democratic Culture ◽  
Budget Support ◽  
The Government

Subject Implications of the proposal to abolish the Senate. Significance President Mohamed Ould Abdelaziz proposed abolishing the Senate in early May. The government lacks the two-thirds majority to implement a ministerial plan to scrap presidential term limits that would allow Abdelaziz to run for a third elected term in 2019. Although Abdelaziz promises to balance abolishing the Senate with creating new regional councils, his proposals sparked street protests. They also threaten to derail government efforts to initiate a broad dialogue with opposition groups that have hitherto boycotted constitutional politics. Impacts Abolishing the Senate would weaken democratic culture. It would also antagonise black citizens because it would entrench a regime that many feel is not interested in tackling discrimination. Western partners might reduce certain types of aid, particularly budget support for central government. Abdelaziz would try to offset any Western aid cuts by seeking more support from Gulf monarchies.

Graft scandal undermines Dominican re-election plans

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Construction Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
The Government ◽  
Protest Activity

Subject Anti-corruption protests. Significance Major anti-corruption marches in August underlined ongoing popular frustration with the slow progress of official investigations into the Odebrecht corruption scandal. While President Daniel Medina has pledged to investigate all wrongdoing and bring culprits to justice, few formal prosecutions have yet been launched. Popular disillusionment with the government could therefore threaten Medina’s plans for a constitutional reform to permit unlimited presidential re-election. Impacts Marcha Verde is likely to step up its protest activity as pre-campaigning begins for the 2020 elections. Ongoing political noise about corruption could deter some investment, particularly in the construction sector. US relations may suffer due to the OFAC action against Bautista, and the cutting of diplomatic ties with Taiwan.

Ukraine talks will resume with glacially slow progress

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
External Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
Break Up ◽  
The Government

Significance French President Emmanuel Macron initiated the call, signalling a determination to revive the four-party 'Normandy format' talks which had ground to a halt. Kyiv lodged a formal protest with the UN on July 21 at what it called an "intensification of Russia's aggressive actions", following an upsurge in clashes with rebel forces that left nine Ukrainian soldiers dead. Impacts Kyiv's caution on making disadvantageous concessions exposes it to external pressure to contribute more to the peace process. If the government has to make concessions on the conflict, political push-back could break up the ruling bloc and force early elections. Lack of progress in resolving the conflict will preserve but not strengthen sanctions against Russia.

Guinea’s constitutional crisis may escalate further

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
International Investment ◽  
Education Sector ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
National Front ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Climate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC) coalition, a grouping of opposition parties and civil society groups, has vowed to continue protests until the government drops its plans. A referendum over a new constitution could be held as early as December alongside planned legislative elections. Impacts The crisis could put the economy under growing pressure, resulting in reduced international investment and potential aid freezes. The worsening economic climate could see public-sector strikes intensify, particularly in the education sector. Persistent protests may trigger defections from the governing Rally of the Guinean People (RPG) and its allies. A potential compromise is that Conde pursues a new constitution as a legacy project, while agreeing to abandon any third-term bid.

Moon’s legacy will last as his presidency winds down

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
North Korea ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
The Government

Significance Despite all this, his ruling Democratic Party (DP) has used its rare parliamentary majority to force through a raft of far-reaching legislation affecting politics, the economy and relations with North Korea. Impacts Labour and ‘fair economy’ legislation will increase costs for businesses. A third wave of COVID-19 -- the largest yet -- may finally force the government to impose a lockdown. Hopes that banning cross-border propaganda balloon launches by activists will lure Pyongyang back to engagement are unduly optimistic.

Morena pressure on Mexico’s INE raises democracy risks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Council ◽  
The Political ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
New Members ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
General Secretary ◽  
Chamber Of Deputies

Subject Government-INE tensions. Significance The National Electoral Institute (INE) on February 6 ratified Edmundo Jacobo Molina as its general secretary for another six-year term. The decision, taken with the support of eight of the INE’s eleven-member General Council, has reignited tensions between the government of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) and the INE leadership, particularly Council President Lorenzo Cordova. Several government officials have accused Cordova and his fellow councillors of undemocratic behavior for having brought forward the vote, which was originally scheduled for April 10 -- six days after the Chamber of Deputies is due to appoint four new members to the Council. Impacts The fact that AMLO’s name will not be on the ballot in next year’s legislative elections could be a disadvantage for Morena. In its current weakened state, the political opposition is unlikely to put up an effective fight to uphold the INE’s independence. The four new INE Council members appointed in April will help organise elections in 2024 and 2027, as well as the 2021 midterms.

Kidal will be test of the state's return to north Mali

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Far North ◽  
The North ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Northern City

Subject Kidal's significance. Significance In mid-February, the government deployed 600 soldiers and auxiliary forces to the far north-eastern city of Kidal and 200 more to Timbuktu, another key northern city. There are also plans to deploy troops to Menaka and Taoudenit. All these towns have been under the de facto control of shifting constellations of rebels, former rebels and militias since April 2012. The return of the military as part of a ‘reconstituted army’ consisting of one-third government soldiers, one-third former rebel fighters and one-third government-aligned militia members indicates a softening of tensions. Impacts The Kidal deployment may blunt some Western criticism of the Malian government’s performance. Legislative elections in March and talks with jihadists could yet change political balances in Kidal. Relations between the government and former rebels in the north are better now than in years. The Algiers Accord’s different provisions are so interconnected that the success of any one depends on agreement on multiple other elements.

Italian stability hinges on M5S future and Salvini

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Private Sector Investment ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Coalition ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Litmus Test

Subject Italian political outlook. Significance On January 26, Italy’s co-ruling Democratic Party (PD) defeated Matteo Salvini’s far-right League party by 51.4% to 43.6% in elections in Emilia Romagna, a prosperous region of northern Italy. In what was a litmus test for the fragile national coalition between PD and the Five Star Movement (M5S), the PD victory has reduced the risk of a government collapse. Impacts Risk-averse investors will remain cautious about Italy over the next year. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte hopes the result will give the government the stability to cut taxes to boost private sector investment. Salvini’s support could decline if he continues to personalise the League’s election campaigns.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document