Puerto Rico faces rocky 2019 amid debt and aid needs

Significance Trump’s commitment to building a US-Mexico border wall means he may try to redirect additional funds from elsewhere for the purpose. Some of these could come from Puerto Rican disaster relief money. If this occurs, or if Trump rejects the bipartisan deal, it will add to Puerto Rico’s long-term fiscal pressures and aid needs, amid wider questions about the island’s constitutional status and development. Impacts Outward migration is likely to rise, especially as the US economy grows, constraining Puerto Rico’s economic diversification. The Democratic US House majority will raise Hispanic-American and Puerto-Rican American issues’ profile. New legislation for Puerto Rican US statehood may be introduced, but passage is unlikely. Puerto Rico will sue the Trump administration if it redirects money bound for Puerto Rico for wall-building.

Significance Fiscal pressures are causing controversy in Puerto Rico, but so too is fiscal policy-making. On July 5, Governor Ricardo Rossello announced that he would seek a court injunction that would prevent the budget he has signed from being disallowed in favour of the nearly 9-billion-dollar budget devised by the US-based federal fiscal control board. Impacts Domestic and foreign investor confidence in Puerto Rico is likely to fall further, complicating economic recovery and reform. The episode will further damage Puerto Rican politicians’ credibility when they make representations to Washington. The polarisation over Puerto Rico’s long-term future, and the US statehood question, will deepen. Delays in repairing the island’s economy, and then reforming it for the future, could see worker outflows.


Significance Puerto Rico is facing a severe fiscal crunch; its general obligation bonds are rated junk status and the government has said that a 2.9 billion dollar bond issuance -- at risk because of the congressional vote -- is required to prevent a shutdown in the next three months. Impacts There is little-to-no prospect of Puerto Rican statehood while Republicans control the US Congress. Puerto Rico would gain five representatives and two senators, likely to vote Democratic. However, this may encourage some Republicans to back federal intervention on debt, to ward off calls for statehood.


Significance While some of the larger tourism markets in the region such as the Dominican Republic, Cuba and Puerto Rico are attempting to follow suit, they face the risk that returning visitors could also drive increased transmission of COVID-19. Impacts A US maritime ‘no sail’ order, in place until at least October 31, will compound the already bleak prospects of cruise tourism this year. Caribbean economies will build up large fiscal deficits in the absence of tourism revenues. In the long term, the crisis will provide a further incentive for economic diversification beyond tourism.


Subject European and Middle East priorities in the Middle East. Significance The US killing of Iran’s Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani on January 3 focused international attention on continuing tensions between Tehran and Washington and revealed deep and ongoing fractures in the transatlantic alliance. These strains were not caused by Soleimani's death; they stem from fundamental strategic differences on Middle Eastern policy priorities between the transactional Trump administration and a multilaterally oriented Europe. Impacts Trump’s re-election could further divide European from US interests in the Middle East. Europe’s main focus in the Middle East will continue to be security and controlling migration, with less concern for human rights. Future EU-UK foreign policy unity will hinge on safeguarding security and defence cooperation post-Brexit. European efforts to reduce dependence on the dollar as a reserve currency, such as creating an independent SWIFT system, will gain support.


Subject Economic update. Significance Guatemala has been one of the better economic performers in Latin America in the last decade. Growth is expected to pick up this year, boosted by strong remittances and private consumption underpinned by a strong macroeconomic framework. Nevertheless, low living standards, high crime rates and a shortfall in infrastructure and human capital have triggered widespread popular disillusionment with the political establishment and driven high levels of outward migration. Impacts US threats of tariffs and remittance taxes will hinder efforts to renegotiate the controversial ‘safe third country’ deal. The highly fragmented political landscape leaves little hope for much-needed tax reform. A slowdown in the US economy would reduce remittances and export demand, weakening the external accounts and dampening growth.


Subject Politics and economics update for Puerto Rico. Significance The US Army Corps of Engineers expects to be conducting post-Hurricane Maria repair operations down to around April. Impacts Outmigration of working-age Puerto Ricans will constrain economic diversification. Puerto Rico faces competitive constraints with neighbouring islands, given US minimum wage legislation. Post-hurricane Puerto Rican police capacity shortages could see crime rise.


Significance Ensuing restrictions cast doubt on the prospects for sustaining the impressive third-quarter GDP rebound in the next two quarters. The recovery of employment and consumption could be reversed. Congress's failure thus far to extend economic support beyond 2020 is a looming threat. Impacts Extended remote working will have long-term effect, fuelling real estate activity as many workers seek larger homes from which to work. Travel related firms will struggle as the Center for Disease Control advises no travel to at least end-2020; most US travel is domestic. Intra- and intercontinental supply chains will remain under stress due to full lockdowns in parts of North America and Europe. A fragile, uneven initial recovery may promote discussion of new broad-based taxes among federal and state decision-makers.


1998 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 239-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim A. Dowd ◽  
Ralph M. Monaco ◽  
Jeffry J. Janoska

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (9) ◽  
pp. 32-35
Author(s):  
Mark Thomas

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze Lenovo’s successful acquisition of IBM’s PC division using Ghemawat’s (2001) CAGE framework. It was an acquisition that was so full of symbols that it is difficult to know where to begin. Lenovo’s purchase of IBM in 2005 was first seen as a sign of the rapid growth and expansion of the Chinese economy and its transformation away from the traditional manufacturing base to more high-tech areas. For doomsday merchants in the land of Uncle Sam, it foretold the end of the world domination of the US economy. Despite a considerable number of skeptics at the time, Lenovo was clearly up to the task. Such was the success of the acquisition that by 2015, Lenovo could claim to have grown into the world’s number 1 PC maker, number 3 smartphone manufacturer and number 3 in the production of tablet computers. Design/methodology/approach This paper is a case study. Findings Despite a considerable number of skeptics at the time, Lenovo was clearly up to the task. Such was the success of the acquisition that by 2015, Lenovo could claim to have grown into the world’s number 1 PC maker, number 3 smartphone manufacturer and number 3 in the production of tablet computers. Indeed, by 2014, the firm had enough confidence to add the IBM server business to its portfolio. Originality/value The briefing saves busy executives and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zahid Irshad Younas ◽  
Mahvesh Khan ◽  
Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan

Purpose The purpose of the study is to explore the misconception that in developed countries, macroeconomic performance lead to sustainable firms or improves stakeholder well-being. The results may be the opposite or even worse. Design/methodology/approach This study examined this misconception using balanced panel data from 1,122 firms from different sectors of the US economy and data on macroeconomic performance from the World Bank. Findings The results of the one-step generalised method of moments indicate that most macroeconomic performance indicators had significant and negative impacts on firm sustainability and stakeholder well-being. Practical implications From a societal perspective, the results illustrate that the fruits of macroeconomic performance of the US economy do not reach stakeholders through firms’ sustainability. Thus, linking the economy’s macroeconomic performance with firm sustainability is vital for sustainably uplifting society and for stakeholder well-being. Originality/value From a policy perspective, this study reveals that the greater focus on macroeconomic performance in the USA over the past decades has resulted in lower firm sustainability because of the malfunctioning of social, economic, environmental and governance factors. This has negatively influenced stakeholder well-being in the country.


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