Puerto Rican budget and statehood wrangles will worsen

Significance Fiscal pressures are causing controversy in Puerto Rico, but so too is fiscal policy-making. On July 5, Governor Ricardo Rossello announced that he would seek a court injunction that would prevent the budget he has signed from being disallowed in favour of the nearly 9-billion-dollar budget devised by the US-based federal fiscal control board. Impacts Domestic and foreign investor confidence in Puerto Rico is likely to fall further, complicating economic recovery and reform. The episode will further damage Puerto Rican politicians’ credibility when they make representations to Washington. The polarisation over Puerto Rico’s long-term future, and the US statehood question, will deepen. Delays in repairing the island’s economy, and then reforming it for the future, could see worker outflows.

Significance Trump’s commitment to building a US-Mexico border wall means he may try to redirect additional funds from elsewhere for the purpose. Some of these could come from Puerto Rican disaster relief money. If this occurs, or if Trump rejects the bipartisan deal, it will add to Puerto Rico’s long-term fiscal pressures and aid needs, amid wider questions about the island’s constitutional status and development. Impacts Outward migration is likely to rise, especially as the US economy grows, constraining Puerto Rico’s economic diversification. The Democratic US House majority will raise Hispanic-American and Puerto-Rican American issues’ profile. New legislation for Puerto Rican US statehood may be introduced, but passage is unlikely. Puerto Rico will sue the Trump administration if it redirects money bound for Puerto Rico for wall-building.


Significance Puerto Rico is facing a severe fiscal crunch; its general obligation bonds are rated junk status and the government has said that a 2.9 billion dollar bond issuance -- at risk because of the congressional vote -- is required to prevent a shutdown in the next three months. Impacts There is little-to-no prospect of Puerto Rican statehood while Republicans control the US Congress. Puerto Rico would gain five representatives and two senators, likely to vote Democratic. However, this may encourage some Republicans to back federal intervention on debt, to ward off calls for statehood.


Significance The announcement would mark the largest subnational bankruptcy in US history, with Puerto Rico facing debt obligations of 73 billion dollars from an array of public entities and 49 billion dollars of unfunded pension liabilities. Demonstrators on May 1 in the capital of San Juan criticised Puerto Rico Governor Ricardo Rossello’s administration, US lawmakers, the island’s federal fiscal control board and budgetary austerity. Impacts Mulled port improvements and electricity liberalisation reforms could offer some economic bright spots for Puerto Rico. A June referendum on Puerto Rico’s status is unlikely to clarify a path from the status quo as an indebted and unincorporated US territory. US President Donald Trump will oppose any congressional efforts to boost federal transfers to Puerto Rico. However, Democrats may attempt to secure greater funding in legislative negotiations to cater to urban expatriate Puerto Rican voters.


Significance The missed payment marks the island’s second default of 2017 after missing payments in January. The federal fiscal control board imposed by the US Congress has given the indebted Puerto Rican government until February 28 to formulate new budget proposals for the next two years and a ten-year fiscal plan. The control board also extended a temporary stay on creditor litigation to May 1. Impacts A public health or migration crisis involving Puerto Rico’s US citizens would present the White House with political difficulties. Holders of bonds from the highly indebted US Virgin Islands will watch congressional action on Puerto Rico closely. Cuts to employee benefits and tuition increases at the University of Puerto Rico are likely to spark protests.


Significance Achieving this goal will require discipline in keeping increases in public sector wages to their projected levels -- no easy task in the face of still-restless labour at a time of division within the ruling party, Nidaa Tounes. Impacts A good relationship with the IMF could facilitate other lending -- from both the public and private sectors. However, troubles within the ruling coalition could undermine foreign investor confidence. Political divisions could also hinder crucial economic reforms, further delaying recovery.


Significance Vazquez did not seek the role, but it fell to her after the August 2 resignation of Ricardo Rossello, followed by the nine-member Puerto Rican Supreme Court’s unanimous ruling yesterday that his handpicked successor Pedro Pierluisi’s succession to the governorship was unconstitutional. This political turmoil comes as the island faces economic difficulty and other long-standing challenges. Impacts The experience of effective mass protests to remove Rossello could dent faith in formal politics and bring more protests. The unrest, and potential for more, may undermine business confidence and investor sentiment. Puerto Rico will factor in the 2020 US election, given the 5 million Puerto Rican voters on the mainland, many in Florida. Any broad agreement on political and regulatory reforms is unlikely to be crafted before 2021. The earliest timetable for any real economic recovery has been set back to the second half of the 2020s.


Significance Despite this, Biden indicated no change in the US position after a bilateral agreement with Germany effectively paved the way to completing the pipeline. Technically, Nord Stream 2 could begin partially operating in October. Impacts The recent spike in European gas prices to levels unseen since 2008 reinforces the case for Nord Stream 2's speedy completion. EU energy diversification, with a focus on renewables, poses long-term questions about the viability of both the Nord Stream pipelines. From October, Hungary will switch to Gazprom gas supplied via Serbia and Austria instead of through Ukrainian pipelines.


Significance His government is in an impasse with the conservative parliament over the draft budget for the new fiscal year beginning on March 21. Rouhani needs the US sanctions to be lifted fast and a COVID-19 vaccination campaign to allow for an exit from the pandemic in order to meet his economic promises. Impacts The supreme leader will become even more closely involved in shaping economic policy, with the autarkic ‘resistance’ narrative dominant. Khamenei may seek a new ‘jihadi manager’ president, linked to the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), who follows his economic vision. Progress with vaccinations, which began on February 8, will likely be slow, as supplies have become highly politicised.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Kaganiec-Kamieńska

Borders and Boundaries, Real and Symbolic: The Case of Puerto RicoThe aim of this article is to outline the real and symbolic borders and boundaries, of geographical, political, cultural and racial nature, in the history and present of Puerto Rico, and their role in shaping and transforming the Puerto Rican identity. The main part of the article focuses on the borders and boundaries between Puerto Rico and the United States. The second part looks at the lines dividing the population in the island and the Puerto Rican diaspora in the US. Granice rzeczywiste i symboliczne. Przypadek PortorykoCelem artykułu jest zarysowanie rzeczywistych i symbolicznych granic, geograficznych, politycznych, rasowych i kulturowych, wpisujących się w historię i współczesność Portoryko oraz ich roli w kształtowaniu się i przekształcaniu tożsamości portorykańskiej. Główna część artykułu skupia się na granicach biegnących między Portoryko a Stanami Zjednoczonymi. W drugiej części wskazano linie podziału powstałe między mieszkańcami wyspy a diasporą portorykańską w USA.


Author(s):  
Amílcar Antonio Barreto

Puerto Ricans, US subjects since 1898, were naturalized en masse in 1917. Congress did so to eliminate the possibility of independence from the US. That citizenship is the cornerstone of island-mainland relations for those advocating a continued relationship with the United States—either in the form of the 1952 Commonwealth constitution or statehood. The epicenter of Puerto Rican partisan life remains the status question. This remarkably stable political party system featured two strong parties of near-equal strength—the pro-Commonwealth PPD and its statehood challenger, the PNP— and a small independence party, the PIP. A core feature of the PNP’s platform has been estadidad jíbara—"creole statehood.” In theory, a future State of Puerto Rico would be allowed to retain its cultural and linguistic autonomy while attaining full membership as the 51st state of the Union.


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