Romanian ruling party could limit post-Dragnea reforms

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Judicial Appointments ◽  
The Social ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
The Eu

Subject Romania after Dragnea. Significance For much of the last five years that Liviu Dragnea controlled the Social Democrats (PSD), he also dominated the Romanian state politically. His 42-month sentence for corruption, handed down on May 27, has opened up a vacuum in the ruling PSD, and there is no obvious successor. The verdict came immediately after two electoral blows -- massive defeat in the European Parliament (EP) elections; and a resounding rebuff in a non-binding referendum in which over 80% opposed PSD attempts to amend or cancel anti-corruption legislation. Impacts President Iohannis is likely to assert himself in foreign policy, but has lost leverage in deciding senior judicial appointments. The presidential election this autumn may not be crucial in the tussle for power, as the presidency has much-reduced powers. The EU will be highly critical of Romania’s fast-increasing budget deficit, a legacy of the Dragnea era.

Snap election may not end Austrian government crisis

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Critical Line ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vice Chancellor ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Eu

Significance This comes after the sudden resignation of Vice Chancellor Reinhold Mitterlehner as head of the OeVP, announced on May 10, precipitated a government crisis. His successor as party leader, 30-year-old Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz, two days later unilaterally declared the collapse of the grand coalition with the Social Democrats (SPOe) live on television, demanding a snap parliamentary election. Impacts Kurz is likely to represent a more critical line on the EU, pushing for reforms. Bad blood between the SPOe and the OeVP could open the door for a coalition with the FPOe even if it incurs losses. As in France, there is a trend towards personality politics in a country where political parties have traditionally been dominant.

New government will strengthen EU values in Lithuania

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Political Culture ◽  
Government Policy ◽  
Social Issues ◽  
Good Practice ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Social

Significance The Homeland Union-Christian Democrat (TS-LDK)-led government sworn in on December 11 will make no changes to Lithuania’s US- and EU-aligned and anti-Moscow foreign policy. The conservative-liberal cabinet is more coherent than its predecessor, the country’s youngest (average age 42) and its most female (six ministers out of 14). Impacts Government policy will absorb previous cabinets’ good practice. Lithuania’s democratic political culture will improve after the toxic rule of the LZVS-led coalition. The opposition will be divided on values but agree on social issues, with the Social Democrats contributing to human rights policies.

German-Turkish tensions put Merkel under pressure

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mass Migration ◽  
Limit Pressure ◽  
German States ◽  
The Social ◽  
Angela Merkel ◽  
The Eu

Significance Relations between Germany and Turkey have taken a turn for the worse since the attempted coup on July 15-16. Faced with a widening crackdown on the Turkish opposition, a spillover of tensions into Germany and signs of a party rebellion against her migrant policy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel cannot afford to push for new concessions to preserve the controversial migrant deal. Impacts Only partial suspension of the deal, with Turkey continuing to prevent mass migration, would contain tensions and limit pressure on the EU. Upcoming elections in two German states could see the populist AfD gain votes, strengthening Merkel's critics. A tougher stance on Tu rkey may increase abstention among German-Turkish voters, hurting primarily the Social Democrats and the Greens.

Budget will stabilise Portugal's minority government

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
The Social ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Asset Quality ◽  
The Eu

Significance The Portuguese government presented its 2017 budget to parliament on October 14. The EU agreed in August to waive fines over its excessive budget deficits, but Portugal remains under pressure to increase its budgetary consolidation efforts. Impacts A ratings downgrade by DBRS would exclude Portugal from the ECB's bond-buying programme. Portugal's banking sector remains a source of concern as low interest rates, high costs and low asset quality squeeze profit margins. The ruling Socialist Party is likely to maintain its lead in polls over the Social Democrats, the main opposition party.

Romania will target business in search of revenue

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Policy ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Developments ◽  
Wage Increases

Subject Romanian government policy in a slowing economy. Significance Economic developments have allowed the senior coalition party, the Social Democrats, to claim a measure of success in the last few years, despite acute cabinet instability and controversial judicial reforms. However, growth is widely expected to slow in 2019. Despite upbeat projections in the budget, passed belatedly and in the face of presidential opposition in mid-March, the government is struggling to fund ambitious wage increases, as the budget deficit comes perilously close to breaching EU limits. Impacts The banking and energy sectors are bearing the brunt of interventionist policies. Legal instability could damage investment. Long-term underinvestment in infrastructure and lack of institutional modernisation will become more evident and difficult to tolerate.

Germany’s coalition faces division on several fronts

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Public Image ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Strong Emphasis ◽  
Investment Agreement ◽  
Policy Decision Making ◽  
The Eu

Significance The three parties successfully negotiated a coalition agreement with a strong emphasis on modernising Germany’s economy. Throughout the negotiations, the parties presented a public image of stability and harmony, yet several divisive issues will test the new government's stability and effectiveness. Impacts The composition of the new government will make it harder for Berlin to win approval for the EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement. Chancellor Olaf Scholz will seek to prioritise more unity at the EU level when it comes to foreign policy decision-making. The spread of the Omicron variant will slow economic recovery and potentially delay the transition to a greener economy.

New Romanian coalition will retreat from reform

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Government

Significance This autumn, bitter conflict between the National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Save Romania Union (USR) ended a brief period of centre-right rule, after years of domination by the Social Democrats (PSD). Former army chief Nicolae Ciuca heads the government, which the PSD dominates alongside a much-weakened PNL. Impacts The government may struggle to persuade a suspicious populace to back vaccination, given previous PSD reluctance for anti-COVID-19 measures. The pandemic may deter civil society from mobilising against abuses of power to the extent it did during the last PSD government. The government's dilemma will be curbing the justice system's independence without provoking a strong EU reaction.

Adjudicating the European Social Market

2018 ◽  
pp. 51-106
Author(s):  
Oliver Gerstenberg
Keyword(s):  
Fundamental Rights ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
The Social ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
Charter Of Fundamental Rights ◽  
Consumer Contracts ◽  
Unfair Terms ◽  
The One ◽  
Social Market ◽  
The Eu

At a first glance, to many observers the EU may appear to be an improbable illustration of the possibility of an extension of legitimacy and democratic justice beyond the state. In contemporary European constitutional debate constitutionalism and social democracy have become antagonists, with the survival of the one seeming to require sacrifice of the other. Authors in the tradition of ordoliberalism have celebrated the Europeanization process because it seemed to ultimately disconnect constitutionalism from democratic practice and to firmly entrench a logic of market evolution that marginalizes politics. Social democrats, by contrast, have come to believe that democracy can only flourish if the solidary politics of the nation retains its sovereignty against cosmopolitan, ‘constitutional’ intrusions from without. Proposals to deepen constitutional integration therefore give rise to the social-democratic objection. This chapter offers a stylized account of both views, which more or less mirror one another. This chapter then also provides an in-depth analysis of the CJEU’s jurisprudence in various domains regarding the efficacy of the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the EU (CFREU) in European private law: employment law and unfair terms in consumer contracts in particular. The chapter concludes that, contrary to expectations and concerns about a constitutional asymmetry between economic freedoms and fundamental social rights, the CJEU has in fact in many cases raised the standard of protection beyond the standard envisaged by national legal orders, thereby unblocking development.

The Government and the Prime Minister

2020 ◽  
pp. 106-123
Author(s):  
Martin Ejnar Hansen
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Coalition Governments ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Government

The formation of Danish governments and their governance continues to be of interest both on their own and comparatively. Minority coalition governments are the norm in Denmark, increasing the importance of support parties for the government to pass its policies. Danish politics can increasingly be seen as two blocs: the ‘red’ bloc led by the Social Democrats and the ‘blue’ bloc led by the Liberals (although it was the Conservatives in the 1980s). This division may have increased the tendency of the presidentialization of Danish politics, not least with the prime minister’s increasing engagement in the day-to-day running of the government, especially with regard to foreign policy. Similarly, the minister of finance is ever more important as well for the day-to-day running of other departments. Ministerial turnover through reshuffles happens during the tenure of most governments, but portfolio redesign mostly occurs when governments are formed. The distribution of portfolios is proportional, but there is much variation in which portfolios parties prefer, with some valuing importance over number of portfolios. Overall, the Danish government and prime minister is a well-researched area, although there is still significant scope for research innovation.

Nazarbayev's re-election will boost Kazakh 'siloviki'

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Strategic Alliance ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Intention To Stay ◽  
The West ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Office ◽  
High Degree

Significance Three candidates competed for the country's supreme political office in the election on April 26. Unsurprisingly, Nazarbayev (74) won by a landslide, obtaining 97.7% of the total votes cast; the official turnout was 95.2%. This is the fifth presidential election in Kazakhstan since it gained independence in 1991. Nazarbayev's triumphant re-election suggests he intends to stay in power so long as his health permits. The prospect of an early succession is, therefore, again indefinitely delayed. Impacts Nazarbayev's re-election and apparent intention to stay in power are positive signs for foreign investors interested in political stability. His win may facilitate implementing anti-crisis measures thanks to domestic stability and a high degree of political centralisation. Kazakhstan's strategic alliance with Russia in the Eurasian Union is unlikely to experience major changes after Nazarbayev's re-election. Astana will continue to pursue a multi-vector foreign policy aimed at good relations with Russia, China, the West and Islamic countries.

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