Dominican tourism sector set for strong growth

Subject Tourism growth. Significance The Dominican Republic has the largest tourism market in the Caribbean, with tourist arrivals and related investment comprising the primary driver of economic growth. The country is set to maintain this momentum in 2019, with the government of President Danilo Medina keen to ensure that it retains its leading status. Impacts Renewed US restrictions on visits to Cuba may see more tourists visit the Dominican Republic instead, boosting arrivals. Increased Chinese infrastructure investment is likely following Santo Domingo’s diplomatic switch from Taiwan. Political consensus on the importance of maintaining tourism growth will ensure policy continuity post-2020. Media reports of a series of recent US tourist deaths have raised some alarm but are unlikely to prompt a sharp drop in visitor numbers.

Significance Accounting directly and indirectly for 16-17% of GDP in 2019, tourism is a major plank of the Dominican economy and will be key to broader economic recovery in 2021. With that in mind, the government is striving to encourage visitors back as soon as possible. Impacts Cruises are less important to the Dominican Republic than some smaller islands, but the slow recovery of that sector will be a blow. The president plans to launch an infrastructure investment programme later this year to help boost employment. The dismissal of Health Minister Plutarco Arias over alleged procurement irregularities may undermine government anti-corruption pledges.


Subject Aid and development in Haiti. Significance On April 21, the EU announced a new aid package for Haiti. While part of this aid will be directed towards reconstruction projects, some will be allocated to the new government’s ambitious infrastructure investment plan. The scale of this plan means that the administration of President Jovenel Moise will also seek to win funding from other potential donors. Impacts While Moise's government provides some stability and leadership, it remains controversial and any mistakes could quickly trigger protests. Tenders will come under close scrutiny given heightened corruption suspicions in the wake of the regionwide Odebrecht scandal. If successfully funded, improved employment prospects could boost economic growth and relieve migrant pressure on the Dominican Republic. If US funding is reduced, Haiti could look to diversify its sources of aid, particularly within the Caribbean Community.


Significance Despite a stronger-than-expected performance by the Greek hospitality sector during the summer months, 2021 will be a challenging year. The government hopes that it will return to pre-pandemic levels ahead of its competitors as early as next year, when the season will be officially extended to March-November. Impacts A high level of uncertainty will delay new private investments in the Greek tourism sector. The rising number of tourists will necessitate additional infrastructure investment in 2022-23. An increased demand for tourism services will support the construction sector next year.


Subject Costa Rican infrastructure. Significance After nearly three years of construction, Costa Rica inaugurated a new 1-billion-dollar cargo port at Moin, in the Caribbean province of Limon, in late February. The government hopes to turn Costa Rica into a major regional shipping centre and to use the project as a launchpad for an infrastructure investment push. Impacts Further delays in the Route 32 extension risk damaging the reputation of the new port, leading to long-term under-use. Employment from infrastructure investment should drive a continuing rebound in consumer confidence. There may be a growing focus on urban public transport over the next 3-5 years, particularly if this attracts investor interest.


Significance Belize’s economic slowdown is proving prolonged, driven by the sharp drop in tourist arrivals as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The government has reduced spending and announced an austerity budget for 2021-22. Tourism looks likely to pick up somewhat this year, but high public debt and unemployment will weigh on economic activity into 2022. Impacts Failure to agree a debt restructuring could force Belize to seek an IMF loan. Protracted debt negotiations will deter investment in the short term. Ongoing vaccine uptake in the United States will be crucial for Belize’s tourism sector, as it is the main tourism source country.


Significance Many areas of the Caribbean have trade, investment and family connections with communities in Florida. As the state now plays a pivotal role in US electoral politics, crises in the region can take on added political importance for parts of Florida’s electorate. Impacts Forecasts of short-term economic recovery for Florida remain highly uncertain given the continuing impact of the pandemic. Clashing interests across the Caribbean may demand greater coordination of US policy than the government can currently offer. Healthcare and disaster relief capabilities within the state are severely overstretched and could be overwhelmed by a new crisis.


2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Medha Pirthee

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand the trend and forecast the number of tourists from different regions of the world to Mauritius. Design/methodology/approach The paper adopts two grey system models, the even model GM(1,1) and the non-homogeneous discrete grey model (NDGM), to forecast the total number of international tourism to Mauritius and its structure from different regions tourist arrivals to Mauritius for the next three years. Grey system theory models were used to account for uncertainties and the dynamism of the tourism sector environment. The two models were applied as a comparison to obtain more reliable forecasting figures. Findings The results demonstrate that both of the grey system models can be successfully applied with high accuracy for Mauritian tourism prediction, and also the number of tourist arrivals to Mauritius shows a continued augmentation for the upcoming years. Practical implications Forecasting is meaningful since the Government of Mauritius, private companies or any concerned authority can adopt the forecasting methods exposed in this paper for the development of the tourism sector through managerial and economic decision making. Originality/value Mauritius is a charming travel destination. Through this paper, it can be seen that future tourism travel to Mauritius has been successfully predicted based on previous data. Moreover, it seems that the grey system theory models have not been utilised yet as forecasting tools for the tourism sector of Mauritius as opposed to other countries such as China and Taiwan.


1960 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 484-485 ◽  

Following an investigation resulting from the request by the government of Venezuela that the Council of the Organizationof American States (OAS) ask the Inter-American Peace Committee to look into the flagrant and widespread violations of human rights by the government of the Dominican Republic, the Committee, in a special report, allegedly concurred with the charges, stressing its opinion that international tensions in the Caribbean had increased and would continue to increase, so long as the Dominican Republic persisted in its repressive policies. On the basis of evidence collected during its four-month investigation, the Committee condemned such practices as the denial of free assembly and free speech, arbitrary arrest, cruel and inhuman treatment of political prisoners, and the use of intimidation and terror as political weapons. Despite reports of 1,000 arrests for subversive activities, the Dominican Republic had accounted for only 222 such arrests and had pointed to acts of elemency granted to many of these people; the Committee had, however, been barred from visiting the country. Desirous nevertheless of avoiding any step which might adversely affect the fate of the political prisoners, and in the hope that the Dominican Republic would decree an amnesty on Easter, April 17, the Committee postponed making a pronouncement on the case; instead, it merely issued a general report on April 14 on the relationship between violations of human rights and the political tensions affecting the peace of the Hemisphere. In the later special report the Committee noted that the hope of an amnesty had turned out to be unfounded, and that it had therefore decided to examine all the information available to it, mosdy in the form either of testimony from exiles and other nationals who had recently been in the Dominican Republic or of extensive and reliable press material.


Subject The fall in foreign investment last year. Significance The government has launched a new Foreign Investment Promotion Agency (APIE) to buck a sharp drop in foreign direct investment (FDI) last year. Breaking with the country's long-standing sector-agnostic approach, the agency will seek to attract investment to specific sectors, including energy, public infrastructure and the food industry. Impacts A more business-friendly administration in Argentina could potentially divert FDI from Chile. Critics of the new FDI regulation maintain that it will dampen inflows. Efforts to attract investment in food and mining services represent a bid to diversify from mineral exports.


Significance The non-party government of former EU Commissioner Dacian Ciolos took office on November 17 after the Ponta government stood down. Much of the previous administration's budget projections have been carried over, but the new draft also raises spending on investment, education and health, widening the projected deficit to 2.95% of 2016 GDP from 1.8% in 2015. Impacts PSD could insist on the budget including a rise in the minimum wage, but the government wants to assess its impact first. Parliamentary parties back the government publicly, but are manoeuvring for advantage with an eye to elections in late 2016. Key economic policies include infrastructure investment, improved administrative standards and tax collection, and absorption of EU funds.


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