Costa Rica port build inspires infrastructure drive

Subject Costa Rican infrastructure. Significance After nearly three years of construction, Costa Rica inaugurated a new 1-billion-dollar cargo port at Moin, in the Caribbean province of Limon, in late February. The government hopes to turn Costa Rica into a major regional shipping centre and to use the project as a launchpad for an infrastructure investment push. Impacts Further delays in the Route 32 extension risk damaging the reputation of the new port, leading to long-term under-use. Employment from infrastructure investment should drive a continuing rebound in consumer confidence. There may be a growing focus on urban public transport over the next 3-5 years, particularly if this attracts investor interest.

Subject Costa Rica election preview. Significance As campaigning enters its final stages ahead of the February 4 presidential and legislative elections, the opposition National Liberation Party (PLN) leads the polls. However, popular frustration with the established political parties has led to a surge in momentum for the National Integration Party (PIN), which looks likely to trigger a second round run-off. Impacts The legislative polls will dictate how much clout the president has in Congress, with no one party looking set for a majority. The incumbent Citizen Action Party (PAC) will perform poorly due to Solis’s perceived ineffectiveness and the ongoing ‘cementazo’ scandal. Renewed infrastructure investment could bring long-term benefits for trade and tourism.


Significance The news follows years of healthy growth in the sector and comes as the government launches a new tourism plan. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) announced the National Tourism Strategy 2019-24 in Chetumal on February 24, highlighting the government’s intention to use the sector as a vehicle for regional development, job creation, social inclusion and equality. Within this framework, the construction of a ‘Maya Train’ in the relatively poor south of the country will be the sector’s priority. Impacts The lack of a formal environmental impact assessment for the Maya Train puts the environment, and its long-term tourism potential, at risk. Business’s mistrust of AMLO, and the potential downgrading of Mexico’s sovereign ratings, threaten infrastructure investment hopes. SECTUR’s move to Quintana Roo feeds into the government’s decentralisation rhetoric but will not necessarily help boost sectoral growth. Plans to incentivise domestic travel by the poor may increase tourism numbers and quality of life but will bring few economic benefits.


Subject Costa Rica drugs. Significance Costa Rican police on February 15 seized more than five tonnes of cocaine in a single operation -- the country’s largest-ever drugs seizure. The haul underlines the extent to which transnational drug-trafficking organisations have infiltrated the country, compounding concerns about related impacts on crime. The government of President Carlos Alvarado is currently implementing a new security strategy, but it is unclear how effective this will be in combating drug gangs. Impacts Costa Rica will seek extra security funding from partners such as the United States. Violence in neighbouring Nicaragua will exacerbate the pressures facing security forces along the border. The Limon region will be a bellwether for security trends as new infrastructure opens up the region.


Subject Shortcomings in Brazilian infrastructure. Significance The quality of Brazil’s infrastructure is a key business complaint. Infrastructure is viewed as central to boosting the country’s long-term competitiveness, as well as a potential motor of recovery from the economic crisis. However, infrastructure investment remains low. This is due in part to the budgetary restrictions faced by the government, but also to the impact of corruption scandals on leading construction companies. Impacts Better roads, railways and ports will be central to boosting Brazil's exports, notably of primary commodities. Poor infrastructure will continue to affect both business and the daily life of ordinary citizens, particularly in remote regions. The execution of infrastructure investments could produce positive and long-lasting effects on the overall economy.


Subject Tourism growth. Significance The Dominican Republic has the largest tourism market in the Caribbean, with tourist arrivals and related investment comprising the primary driver of economic growth. The country is set to maintain this momentum in 2019, with the government of President Danilo Medina keen to ensure that it retains its leading status. Impacts Renewed US restrictions on visits to Cuba may see more tourists visit the Dominican Republic instead, boosting arrivals. Increased Chinese infrastructure investment is likely following Santo Domingo’s diplomatic switch from Taiwan. Political consensus on the importance of maintaining tourism growth will ensure policy continuity post-2020. Media reports of a series of recent US tourist deaths have raised some alarm but are unlikely to prompt a sharp drop in visitor numbers.


Significance Admission to the group demonstrates international confidence in Costa Rica’s economic management, even as the government struggles with the prolonged negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. OECD accession should provide an economic boost for Costa Rica, alongside domestic stimulus measures. Impacts The benefits of OECD membership will be felt well beyond the immediate post-pandemic period. OECD accession will help encourage more foreign investment into Costa Rica, potentially giving it advantages over neighbouring Panama. Costa Rican economic recovery may spur more migration from Nicaragua, especially if repression there worsens as November’s elections near.


Kybernetes ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salman Ahmad ◽  
Razman bin Mat Tahar

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide an assessment of Malaysia's renewable capacity target. Malaysia relies heavily on fossil fuels for electricity generation. To diversify the fuel-mix, a technology-specific target has been set by the government in 2010. Considering the complexity in generation expansion, there is a dire need for an assessment model that can evaluate policy in a feedback fashion. The study also aims to expand policy evaluation literature in electricity domain by taking a dynamic systems approach. Design/methodology/approach – System dynamics modelling and simulation approach is used in this study. The model variables, selected from literature, are constituted into casual loop diagram. Later, a stock and flow diagram is developed by integrating planning, construction, operation, and decision making sub-models. The dynamic interactions between the sub-sectors are analysed based on the short-, medium- and long-term policy targets. Findings – Annual capacity constructions fail to achieve short-, medium- and long-term targets. However, the difference in operational capacity and medium- and long-term target are small. In terms of technology, solar photovoltaic (PV) attains the highest level of capacity followed by biomass. Research limitations/implications – While financial calculations are crucial for capacity expansion decisions, currently they are not being modelled; this study primarily focuses on system delays and exogenous components only. Practical implications – A useful model that offers regulators and investors insights on system characteristics and policy targets simultaneously. Originality/value – This paper provides a model for evaluating policy for renewable capacity expansion development in a dynamic context, for Malaysia.


1996 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 465-493 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcia Olander

The years following World War Two produced a strong resurgence of U.S. intervention in Central America and the Caribbean couched in Cold War terms. Although the U.S. intervention in Guatemala to overthrow the government of Jacobo Arbenz in 1954 has generally been seen as the first case of Cold War covert anti-Communist intervention in Latin America, several scholars have raised questions about U.S. involvement in a 1948 Costa Rican civil war in which Communism played a critical role. In a 1993 article in The Americas, Kyle Longley argued that “the U.S. response to the Costa Rican Revolution of 1948, not the Guatemalan affair, marked the origins of the Cold War in Latin America.” The U.S. “actively interfered,” and achieved “comparable results in Costa Rica as in Guatemala: the removal of a perceived Communist threat.” Other authors have argued, even, that the U.S. had prepared an invasion force in the Panama Canal Zone to pacify the country. The fifty years of Cold War anti-Communism entitles one to be skeptical of U.S. non-intervention in a Central American conflict involving Communism. Costa Ricans, aware of a long tradition of U.S. intervention in the region, also assumed that the U.S. would intervene. Most, if not all, were expecting intervention and one key government figure described U.S. pressure as like “the air, which is felt, even if it cannot be seen.” Yet, historians must do more than just “feel” intervention. Subsequent Cold War intervention may make it difficult to appraise the 1948 events in Costa Rica objectively. Statements like Longley's that “it is hard to believe that in early 1948 … Washington would not favor policies that ensured the removal of the [Communist Party] Vanguard,” although logical, do not coincide with the facts of the U.S. role in the conflict.


Significance Many areas of the Caribbean have trade, investment and family connections with communities in Florida. As the state now plays a pivotal role in US electoral politics, crises in the region can take on added political importance for parts of Florida’s electorate. Impacts Forecasts of short-term economic recovery for Florida remain highly uncertain given the continuing impact of the pandemic. Clashing interests across the Caribbean may demand greater coordination of US policy than the government can currently offer. Healthcare and disaster relief capabilities within the state are severely overstretched and could be overwhelmed by a new crisis.


Significance In January, the Central Bank of Argentina restricted access to the official exchange market for imports of some luxury goods, while the government asked companies to present their foreign trade estimates for 2021 and suggested that it would not approve any rise in imports unless this was offset with higher exports. Importers are facing mounting delays, which raise costs and hamper domestic production by restricting access to inputs. Impacts Higher import costs due to red-tape delays and shortages of product availability will fuel already high inflation. Frequent regulatory changes will discourage long-term investments and damage importers’ relations with foreign suppliers. Import controls will hit the auto sector hard, with a negative spillover effect in manufacturing more broadly.


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