Haitian stability boosts aid and investment hopes

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Caribbean Community ◽  
Investment Plan ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The Eu

Subject Aid and development in Haiti. Significance On April 21, the EU announced a new aid package for Haiti. While part of this aid will be directed towards reconstruction projects, some will be allocated to the new government’s ambitious infrastructure investment plan. The scale of this plan means that the administration of President Jovenel Moise will also seek to win funding from other potential donors. Impacts While Moise's government provides some stability and leadership, it remains controversial and any mistakes could quickly trigger protests. Tenders will come under close scrutiny given heightened corruption suspicions in the wake of the regionwide Odebrecht scandal. If successfully funded, improved employment prospects could boost economic growth and relieve migrant pressure on the Dominican Republic. If US funding is reduced, Haiti could look to diversify its sources of aid, particularly within the Caribbean Community.

Dominican tourism sector set for strong growth

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Primary Driver ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Media Reports ◽  
The Government ◽  
Visitor Numbers

Subject Tourism growth. Significance The Dominican Republic has the largest tourism market in the Caribbean, with tourist arrivals and related investment comprising the primary driver of economic growth. The country is set to maintain this momentum in 2019, with the government of President Danilo Medina keen to ensure that it retains its leading status. Impacts Renewed US restrictions on visits to Cuba may see more tourists visit the Dominican Republic instead, boosting arrivals. Increased Chinese infrastructure investment is likely following Santo Domingo’s diplomatic switch from Taiwan. Political consensus on the importance of maintaining tourism growth will ensure policy continuity post-2020. Media reports of a series of recent US tourist deaths have raised some alarm but are unlikely to prompt a sharp drop in visitor numbers.

Dominican Republic tourism begins fragile recovery

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Health Minister ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Investment Programme

Significance Accounting directly and indirectly for 16-17% of GDP in 2019, tourism is a major plank of the Dominican economy and will be key to broader economic recovery in 2021. With that in mind, the government is striving to encourage visitors back as soon as possible. Impacts Cruises are less important to the Dominican Republic than some smaller islands, but the slow recovery of that sector will be a blow. The president plans to launch an infrastructure investment programme later this year to help boost employment. The dismissal of Health Minister Plutarco Arias over alleged procurement irregularities may undermine government anti-corruption pledges.

Weak consumption may thwart Slovak growth plans

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Consumption Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject The government's latest GDP expectations for 2016-19. Significance On September 19, days before surviving a parliamentary no-confidence vote, the government announced GDP projections for 2016-19, based on improvements in consumption growth and the labour market, where registered unemployment hovers at historically low levels. Despite its weakened position following the recent departure of junior coalition partner Siet, Smer-Social Democracy (SD) is upbeat about the prospects for robust GDP growth in 2016, revising its forecast upwards to 3.6% from 3.2%. Impacts Industrial output, GDP and inflationary pressures may pick up post-2018, as consumers spend more and auto industry investments create jobs. The government may miss its targets in the short term, but fiscal deficits should remain below the EU limit of 3% of GDP in 2016-18. More public-private partnerships, modelled on the Bratislava ring-road, plus EU funding, may support infrastructure investment after 2017.

'Juncker Plan' could mean EU investment bulge

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Commission ◽  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
High Grade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chinese Investment ◽  
Investment Plan ◽  
Eu Referendum ◽  
Commission President ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The possible economic impact of the EU investment plan (the 'Juncker Plan'). Significance The EU investment plan launched by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker just over a year ago has made a slow start. This will encourage doubts that have existed since the scheme's inception about its operation and likely impact. Impacts Even by 2020, the EU economy will still probably require every effort to boost growth and make up for lost investment. Given continuing strong demand for high-grade bonds and equity investments, it should be possible to achieve the fundraising target. The plan could become a vehicle for Chinese investment into the EU: China is talking of 5-10 billion euros in future investments. The geographical distribution of funded projects could be politically sensitive within the EU. The plan could come under scrutiny during the UK EU referendum campaign; UK projects may come too late to have an impact before the vote.

Colombia’s infrastructure expansion faces major delays

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rates ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Caribbean Coast ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Opportunities ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
New Infrastructure

Significance The claims follow the ANI’s announcement on February 22 that it would cancel the contract of an Odebrecht-led consortium to build the Ruta del Sol 2 highway, linking central Colombia to the Caribbean coast. Impacts The risk of potentially intrusive investigations will remain high for firms with commercial or contractual links to Odebrecht. Delays in completion of infrastructure projects could bring Colombia’s GDP growth rates for 2017 below the current forecasts of 2.7%. Later in the year, new infrastructure investment opportunities will open as corruptly awarded contracts are resubmitted for tender. Allegations that Santos’s 2014 election campaign received Odebrecht funding could harm his Party of the U in the 2018 election.

Economic growth will boost Portugal’s government

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political System ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
The Political ◽  
Turn Of The Millennium ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mediterranean Countries ◽  
The Eu

Significance Portugal is set for the best five-year period of growth since the turn of the millennium, unemployment is falling and public finances are showing positive signs. The upswing is reflected in the remarkable stability of the political system. Impacts The economic recovery is likely to drive down yields on government bonds. Centeno’s appointment as Eurogroup president will raise Portugal’s standing in the EU. Security concerns in many Mediterranean countries are likely to boost Portugal’s tourism industry.

Divisions over EU defence integration look set to grow

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
National Level ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Defence Policy ◽  
Arms Exports ◽  
Security Relationship ◽  
Industry Integration ◽  
The Eu

Subject Future EU defence integration. Significance The Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) and the European Defence Fund (EDF) have become key pillars of EU defence policy, but divergence between member states is increasingly making defence integration slow and limited. In addition, opposition towards third-party participation and arms exports, and uncertainty about the future EU-UK security relationship, threaten to diminish the capabilities of future EU defence projects. Impacts London’s exclusion from the EU’s Galileo project suggests Brussels does not want close UK collaboration in future EU initiatives. The EU will likely prioritise steps to enhance European defence industry integration in order to reduce duplication and overspending. National-level defence spending could stall over the coming years as a result of slowing economic growth across the euro-area.

Europe’s populist parties may shift climate debate

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Cultural Integration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Western European ◽  
The Eu

Significance While most attention has fixed on populist parties’ views on immigration and cultural integration, their rhetoric often targets other policy areas, notably climate and energy. Impacts Populist parties are likely to remain a significant force in many Western European countries, particularly if economic growth remains slow. Commitments to clean energy are vulnerable to concerns about affordability and competitiveness. These challenges are likely to impact on the EU and blunt the Commission’s ambition to pursue its own energy and climate strategies.

Urban-rural linkages could foster growth in Uganda

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Middle Class ◽  
Informal Economy ◽  
Urban Population ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Employment Opportunities ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Urban Rural

Significance Planned infrastructure expansion comes amid shifts in Ugandan demographics with economic implications. The urban population is expected to grow to over 20 million people by 2040, while only 15% of new employment opportunities generated in the capital city are in the tradeable sector. Many urban jobs remain part of the informal economy, complicating efforts to raise domestic revenue. Impacts Economic growth will increase consumption through rising middle-class demand. Current urban demand is met through imported, processed commodities, leading to the growth of less-productive, 'consumption' cities. Productivity will depend on infrastructure investment; however, failure to raise domestic revenue could raise the risk of debt distress.

Brexit will have mixed impact on the Caribbean

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Export Market ◽  
Regional Economies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Decision To Leave ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Subject The impact of Brexit on the English-speaking Caribbean. Significance The Caribbean is a region with strong links to the United Kingdom that will be affected significantly by the UK voters' decision to leave the EU ('Brexit'). The region includes sovereign and non-sovereign countries and both groups will be affected, albeit in different ways. Impacts Caribbean concerns will not be a priority for either the United Kingdom or the EU. Uncertainty may further undermine already weak regional economies. CARICOM will need a new trade accord with the United Kingdom, its main export market.

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