Uneven reform stays Belgium's competitiveness

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Unions ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Public Deficit ◽  
Islamist Terrorism ◽  
The Government ◽  
Government Coalition

Subject Political situation in Belgium. Significance The centre-right Belgian government coalition, led by Prime Minister Charles Michel, has pursued a reformist agenda since it came into power in 2014. However, this has been met with opposition from trade unions and the public. While the government has implemented some of its planned reforms, more work is required to reform the country’s welfare system and increase employment. Meanwhile, regional tensions between Flanders and Wallonia remain an issue. Impacts The modest economic recovery will probably continue, with GDP growth forecast to reach 1.4% this year. The government's reforms are expected to lead to the creation of 120,000 jobs in 2017. Although the public deficit is expected to be below 3% of GDP this year, the consolidation of public finances will remain a priority. Islamist terrorism continues to pose a threat and the country remains on high alert.

Battle to stop Ecuador re-election reform intensifies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Public Institutions ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Election Reform ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Decision Making

Subject The outlook for constitutional reform and presidential re-election. Significance Since the government announced its intention to revise the constitution to allow President Rafael Correa to seek re-election in 2017, the opposition has resisted the move. Various parties and coalitions have attempted to call a referendum on the issue using mechanisms in the 2008 constitution to enable greater public participation in political decision-making. The government has used its influence over public institutions to block a referendum, fearing defeat at the polls. The outcome of the conflict remains unclear six months on from when the proposal was first announced. Impacts The fragmentation of the opposition will bolster government attempts to rebuff demands for a referendum. Denying the public the opportunity to vote on constitutional reform will undermine the legitimacy of the president and government. The economic fallout from low oil prices will complicate the government's political situation and allow for opposition gains.

Political pressure mounts on Japanese media

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Freedom Of Expression ◽  
Press Freedom ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Media ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Media ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Government

Significance The issue of media independence has become a fraught one under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's administration, with perceptions rising among journalists and the public that the government is subjecting the media to political pressure. Critics of the administration speak of censorship and threats to freedom of expression. Japan's ranking in the World Press Freedom Index has fallen from 22nd in 2011-12, before Abe took office, to 61st in 2015. Impacts The government seems likely to try to marginalise the criticisms of constitutional scholars, like it marginalises its other critics. International media as well as domestic journalists are likely to feel some pressure from the authorities. In the near term, the issue is unlikely to destabilise the government, or derail passage of security legislation.

French trade union rivalry is likely to intensify

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Movement ◽  
Trade Union ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Power Struggle ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Subject French trade unions. Significance French trade unions have found themselves at the centre of a continuing and powerful social movement against the labour reform proposed by the government under President Francois Hollande and Prime Minister Manuel Valls. However, the strong opposition is not just driven by the content of the reform but also by the power struggle among trade unions which are now split into 'reformist' and 'non-reformist' camps. Impacts The division between trade unions is likely to lead to a radicalisation of the non-reformist unions with violent strikes continuing. The government will be held responsible for the lock-down, which will weaken Hollande's re-election bid further. The labour reform dispute could relegitimise non-reformist trade unions in the long term, complicating future reform attempts.

Israel may be heading for its third election in a year

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Not Given ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Government

Significance On October 23, President Reuven Rivlin passed on the task of forming the government to Benny Gantz, leader of the centrist Blue and White alliance, after incumbent Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu failed. Neither the centre-left bloc nor the bloc of religious and right-wing parties (led by Netanyahu's Likud) has a majority without Yisrael Beiteinu, but so far Gantz and Netanyahu have failed to find an acceptable compromise despite pressure from Lieberman and Rivlin to form a unity administration. Meanwhile, Netanyahu himself faces an impending indictment on corruption charges. Impacts Consecutive rounds of elections will create a strain on the public finances. Netanyahu will refuse any power rotation deal where he is not given the premiership first. Another election, especially if coupled with an indictment, will accelerate a trend of public fatigue with Netanyahu.

Thailand’s Prayut may keep power in a civilian regime

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
National Council ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Thailand's long-delayed election. Significance More than 40 new political parties have been registered in Thailand since March 2, and established parties will be allowed to begin registering members on April 1, as Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) begin a process of preparing for a long-delayed general election. The 2017 constitution initiated by the NCPO allows the (to be re-established) House of Representatives to select an ‘outsider’ as prime minister if it is unable to decide on a party-affiliated figure. Impacts Persistent election delays will not affect Thailand’s current economic recovery. Despite mounting political pressure on the government to commit to a poll, anti-government protests will not grow. Improving relations with the United States could insulate the government from EU pressure on delayed elections.

Thai government infighting may hurt economic recovery

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Legal Cases ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Thai Government ◽  
The Government

Significance Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha remains under pressure to carry out a cabinet reshuffle to contain government infighting. At the same time, the government is trying to spur a recovery from the economic slump caused by the COVID-19 crisis. Impacts The departure of technocratic ministers from the cabinet would set back investor confidence. A COVID-19 state of emergency could be extended beyond end-July, even though Thailand appears to have the pandemic under control. The government will continue to direct legal cases against opposition leaders to hamper their parties.

Moldovan government will prioritise Western assistance

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Governance System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
The Creation ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance The government is headed by Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita, a leading PAS figure and former finance minister. This completes the creation of a strong functioning governance system under President Maia Sandu and her PAS allies. Impacts The budget deficit will encourage the government to accept conditions set by the IMF and EU. Unprecedented political synergies should foster swift, more cohesive reforms. A comprehensive campaign against corruption will be disruptive for the public sector. Finding competent, uncorrupt people to take senior positions and staff institutions will be a challenge.

1MDB fund probe may trigger mass protests in Malaysia

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Life ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
The Political ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Position ◽  
The Government ◽  
Auditor General

Subject The political and economic consequences of the 1Malaysia Development Berhad fund controversy. Significance Police raided 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB)'s offices yesterday under a wider investigation into allegations of mismanagement of the state-owned investment fund. Meanwhile, today the auditor general submitted a provisional report on the fund to the Public Accounts Committee.The 1MDB case is dominating Malaysian political and economic life, and undermining Prime Minister Najib Razak's political position. Further allegations against 1MDB, or popular perceptions that the government is insufficiently investigating criticisms of the fund, could trigger mass protests. Impacts Snap elections are unlikely. The 1MDB controversy will continue to erode investors' confidence in Malaysia. A future 1MDB default is possible without further credit support, posing risks for financial institutions linked to the fund.

Unions will push back on labour reform in India

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Work Training ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Government

Subject Indian government's plans for labour reform. Significance Several trade unions earlier this month held protests over labour codes introduced into parliament by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Unemployment reached a 45-year high in 2017-18. Modi, who recently won a second term, came to power in 2014 promising to create 10 million jobs per year, focusing especially on manufacturing. Impacts The government will aim to expand work training, hoping to upskill the population. Critics will press the government to bolster employment by prioritising investment stimuli. Rising numbers of educated but jobless youths could express their frustrations through political violence.

Prospects for India in the second quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Big Bang ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Government

Subject Prospects for India in the second quarter. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) suffered a major defeat in Delhi elections in February, denting the party's perception of electoral invincibility. This has cast a shadow over Modi's economic agenda just when investor pressure is mounting for 'big bang' reforms. Nonetheless, signs of economic recovery -- visible in the uptick in GDP growth, moderating inflation and strengthening balance of payments -- promise the government room for manoeuvre in the second quarter of 2015 (the first quarter of fiscal 2015-16).

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