Brazil corruption probe may mar able Maia's ambitions

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
National Politics ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Speaker Of The House ◽  
Political Scene

Subject A profile of Speaker of the House Rodrigo Maia. Significance Speaker of the House Rodrigo Maia has quickly become a key name in a Brazilian centre-right landscape that is otherwise short of skilled leaders, and in national politics more widely. In a country bitterly divided between the far-right of President Jair Bolsonaro and the centre-left, Maia has increasingly positioned himself as a moderate conservative, fiscally responsible but also socially sensitive. Impacts Maia will be crucial to the success of passing Bolsonaro’s ambitious reform agenda. Maia’s unusual ability to negotiate effectively with politicians beyond his ideological field will be an asset going forward. The political scene could be gradually changing in favour of Maia’s centre-right camp.

Bosnia's problematic party scene will delay reform

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Political Culture ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Pluralism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Government Institutions ◽  
Political Scene

Subject Party congresses' ratcheting up of political tensions. Significance Many of the divisions and problems present in executive, legislative, judicial and other institutions at all administrative levels in Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) derive from structural weaknesses in the political scene and poor political culture. All main parties are likely to maintain or further radicalise their positions, destabilising an already difficult political situation. This, in turn, could bring down the reform agenda which is under a tight, year-end deadline, jeopardising financial liquidity and challenging an EU breakthrough. Impacts The easy re-election of party leaders with little or no opposition shows the continuing low level of democracy and political pluralism. Some parties' congress declarations clearly show the further advance of radical nationalist and separatist agendas. BiH's patronage system will continue to impair the capacities of political parties and the effectiveness of government institutions.

Garcia's death will not revive APRA's fortunes in Peru

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Political Support ◽  
The Political ◽  
Judicial Activism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Construction Company ◽  
The Face ◽  
Car Wash ◽  
Political Scene

Significance Garcia’s death removes from the political scene one of Peru’s most influential politicians. The twice former-president had been closely identified as a recipient of bribes from the Brazilian construction company Odebrecht, although he consistently denied allegations against him. He was one of several senior political figures, both in Peru and in Latin America more broadly, to be embroiled in the so-called ‘Car Wash’ investigation. Impacts APRA’s ability to rebuild political support in the country is doubtful. The Peruvian and Brazilian examples of judicial activism will not necessarily be paralleled elsewhere. President Martin Vizcarra will push ahead with his reform agenda in the face of congressional opposition.

Internal splits will hold back rising Polish far right

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
The Political ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Law ◽  
Law And Justice ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Scene

Subject The rise of the far right in Poland. Significance The Law and Justice (PiS) government initially tried to work with far-right organisations to increase its own support. However, the recent political successes of the far-right Confederation coalition are making PiS see it as more and more of a threat. Impacts The political scene in Poland will become ever more polarised in coming years, with the far right benefiting the most. As PiS turns towards a more moderate, modernising conservatism, radicals will agitate against the government becoming too centrist. Incumbent Andrzej Duda has PiS backing for next May’s presidential election, which could reveal shifts in party strengths.

Moldovan armed forces will need continued NATO support

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Capacity Building ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Political Agenda ◽  
The Political ◽  
Military Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Political Scene

Subject Moldova's armed forces. Significance Russia's military build-up in Crimea and other parts of the continent, combined with its intervention in Syria, continue to alarm nations in Eastern Europe. With Moscow maintaining a military contingent in Transnistria and its growing military presence regionally, Moldova's armed forces and their relations with NATO will come under greater focus. However, Moldova's financial plight will make military reform and boosting defence spending difficult. Impacts The banking scandal that has rocked the political scene will push defence reform lower down the political agenda. A more militarily capable Moldova would be a useful partner for Ukraine in the future. Moldova may be invited to participate in more NATO exercises to enhance capacity-building measures.

Denmark's weak new government faces complex alliances

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Political Strategy ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Spectrum ◽  
The Right

Significance The new government will have only 34 of the 179 seats, because policy differences among the right-wing parties, and the political strategy of the electorally strengthened anti-immigration, Euro-sceptic Danish People's Party (DF), mean DF will remain outside. Policy-making will be difficult. The government will be more economically liberal and pro-EU than it would have been with DF, but to make policy it will rely on partners across the political spectrum, especially the ousted Social Democrats -- who remain the largest party -- and DF. Impacts If DF is seen as a welfarist protector of ordinary citizens, it is more likely to repeat, at least, its 22% vote in the next election. The much-tighter immigration regime which is in prospect could taint Denmark's image and make it less attractive to foreign investment. The new government is likely to be an ally for much of UK Prime Minister David Cameron's EU reform agenda.

Political restructuring is on the way in Brazil

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
General Election ◽  
The Political ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movements ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
President Elect

Subject Changes to the political landscape. Significance This year’s general election has transformed the political landscape that prevailed for over two decades in Brazil. The centre-right Social Democrats (PSDB) were pushed away from the mainstream by a surging far-right led by President-elect Jair Bolsonaro. After winning four straight presidential elections, the Workers’ Party (PT) was defeated in the runoff. It retains some leverage, but now faces increasingly serious challenges to its hegemony on the centre-left. Impacts Ineffective management of relations with Congress could undermine Bolsonaro’s ability to pass key legislation. Protest movements not aligned to established parties could proliferate in the coming years. Bolsonaro’s Social Liberal Party (PSL) will fail to establish itself as a leading party in the longer term.

Iraq’s elections point to broad-based unity cabinet

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Government ◽  
The Political ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Government Formation ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Reforms ◽  
Political Scene

Significance Iraq is struggling to finalise the results of national elections on May 12. However, the probable broad outlines of the next parliament are already visible, with the political scene still deeply fractured. Impacts Postponement of the 2019 budget will put off much-needed fiscal reforms. Sub-national elections due later in 2018 may be disrupted by national government formation. Any attempt to exclude militia factions from government could drive up security risks.

Mauritania opposition crackdown aims at 2019 election

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
The Political ◽  
Gold Mine ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Scene

Significance Journalists say the move is part of a wider crackdown that includes a judicial campaign against senate members who dispute the government’s right to abolish the upper house after winning a constitutional referendum on August 5. Officially, the focus of the crackdown is concern that an exiled businessman, Mohamed Bouamatou, may be financing opponents of the regime. However, the strategy also has a wider intimidatory effect on opponents and independent voices that might scrutinise the government. Mohamed Ould Ghadda, one of the most prominent critics, is already in jail, journalists and trade unionists have been subjected to questioning and the state prosecutor is pursuing other senators. Impacts The senate’s abolition removes a key institutional channel through which opponents can try to hold the government to account. Abdelaziz will become even more dominant on the political scene now that the senate has been shut down. The start of gas exports from the Tortue field in 2021 and expansion of the Tasiast gold mine will boost the government’s confidence.

Right-wing coalition would test Austria’s stability

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Welfare Benefits ◽  
Government Role ◽  
International Attention ◽  
Border Controls

Significance Kurz has said he wants a coalition agreement by the end of the month -- probably with the far-right populist Freedom Party (FPOe). Impacts Austria is likely to push for EU reforms on migration, border controls and social welfare benefits. The SPOe is struggling to find a niche in the party system and could face a long spell in opposition. The FPOe's rise to a potential government role will attract unwanted international attention. The political elite could be rejuvenated as younger Kurz supporters are promoted to top jobs in ministries and parliament.

French reform drive could slow down

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Trade Disputes ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Government

Subject France's reform agenda. Significance On September 7, yellow vest protests resumed in French cities, albeit in small numbers. It is, however, a warning for President Emmanuel Macron that social unrest is still a threat as the government seeks to drive ahead with stage two of its controversial reform agenda. Impacts While France is less exposed to trade disputes than such countries as Germany, recession in the latter would slow France's growth further. Reducing unemployment and avoiding a public sector backlash will be crucial for Macron’s expected re-election bid in 2022. Marine le Pen’s far-right National Rally remains Macron’s only significant political rival, which increases his chances of re-election. Domestic stability will enable Paris to pursue a more assertive foreign policy.

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