Political restructuring is on the way in Brazil

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
General Election ◽  
The Political ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movements ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
President Elect

Subject Changes to the political landscape. Significance This year’s general election has transformed the political landscape that prevailed for over two decades in Brazil. The centre-right Social Democrats (PSDB) were pushed away from the mainstream by a surging far-right led by President-elect Jair Bolsonaro. After winning four straight presidential elections, the Workers’ Party (PT) was defeated in the runoff. It retains some leverage, but now faces increasingly serious challenges to its hegemony on the centre-left. Impacts Ineffective management of relations with Congress could undermine Bolsonaro’s ability to pass key legislation. Protest movements not aligned to established parties could proliferate in the coming years. Bolsonaro’s Social Liberal Party (PSL) will fail to establish itself as a leading party in the longer term.

Brazil's political risk may rise sharply post-2018

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Political Reform ◽  
The Political ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Broad Agreement ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
Structural Risk ◽  
Severe Recession

Subject The longer-term outlook for political stability. Significance Between the 1994 and 2014 presidential elections, Brazil was governed under a complex but functional 'coalition presidential system', with the presidency controlled by either the centre-left Workers' Party (PT) or the centre-right Social Democrats (PSDB). Both parties had much in common -- from a broad agreement on economic policy to a strategy of forming large and heterogeneous coalitions to deal with the highly atomised Congress. In recent years, this system suffered an implosion provoked by the severe recession and the corruption investigations that have undermined the electoral prospects of much of the political mainstream. Impacts A focus on Rousseff's impeachment misses the key political risks in Brazil. Without a comprehensive political reform, politics will tend to instability. This structural risk is often not on the radar of key economic players.

Tensions will simmer in Ecuador despite subsidy U-turn

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Unions ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Action ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Indigenous Groups ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance The move, designed to help meet IMF loan conditions, triggered two weeks of protests by indigenous movements, trade unions, students and others, which brought the country to a halt and threatened to topple the government. Heavy-handed police and military action exacerbated the violence, which resulted in hundreds of arrests and at least eight deaths. Moreno’s U-turn has put an end to the unrest for now but deep divisions (and IMF requirements) remain. Impacts Correa and his supporters will seize on Moreno’s inability to maintain order and his decision to back down in the face of protests. Indigenous groups will be emboldened by Moreno’s U-turn and will continue resisting key elements of the government’s economic programme. Relations with the IMF have returned to centre stage and will shape the political landscape as the 2021 presidential elections approach.

Hollande may stand again but right look stronger

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
New Generation ◽  
Nicolas Sarkozy

Subject The political outlook after the 'departement' elections. Significance Following the March 2015 'departement' elections, four candidates are emerging as front-runners for the 2017 presidential election in their respective camps. After enjoying a political comeback in recent months and seeing internal Socialist Party (PS) and other left-wing opposition sidelined, President Francois Hollande will now almost certainly be able to run for re-election as the PS candidate. Former Prime Minister Alain Juppe and former President Nicolas Sarkozy are battling for control of the centre-right, divided principally by strategy towards immigration, Islam and the National Front (FN). FN leader Marine Le Pen has emerged from a decisive showdown with her father as an even stronger far-right candidate. The political landscape has shifted to the right. Impacts Having re-established some stability around his presidency, Hollande is now unlikely to risk it by pursuing economic reforms. Hollande could aggravate divisions among the Greens and on the far left by including Green ministers in the government in coming months. As potential presidents, both Juppe and Sarkozy appear willing to engage in substantial structural reform. Jean-Marie Le Pen's final political exit will allow a new generation to take definitive charge of the FN and complete its 'detoxification'.

Romanian centre-right will struggle to form coalition

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
General Election ◽  
Social Democratic Party ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Democratic ◽  
Minority Party

Significance They have enough seats along with the Hungarian minority party to form a government. But the former communist Social Democratic Party (PSD) and fringe politicians are the main beneficiaries of the general election held on December 6, which revealed deep dissatisfaction with the outgoing minority National Liberal Party (PNL) government, amid a far-right comeback and low turnout. Impacts The COVID-19 crisis has deepened the gulf between much of society and a poorly performing state. Whoever held office in 2020 was likely to have been punished by voters but elite figures' self-serving behaviour continues regardless. If PNL and USR-PLUS do not bury their mutual animosity, PSD or some populist may capture the presidency in 2022.

New Romanian coalition will retreat from reform

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Government

Significance This autumn, bitter conflict between the National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Save Romania Union (USR) ended a brief period of centre-right rule, after years of domination by the Social Democrats (PSD). Former army chief Nicolae Ciuca heads the government, which the PSD dominates alongside a much-weakened PNL. Impacts The government may struggle to persuade a suspicious populace to back vaccination, given previous PSD reluctance for anti-COVID-19 measures. The pandemic may deter civil society from mobilising against abuses of power to the extent it did during the last PSD government. The government's dilemma will be curbing the justice system's independence without provoking a strong EU reaction.

Power and the poisoned chalice: A provocation

Leadership ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-132
Author(s):  
Keith Grint
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Leaders And Followers

Power, however defined, is something we usually consider as indelibly linked to leadership, as something all leaders and followers seek to obtain, retain, and deploy for good or ill, for themselves or others. But there are occasions when power might be something to avoid, especially when it comes tainted with deleterious consequences, rather like the Christian fable of the poisoned chalice. In this brief provocation, I provide examples where this is self-evident but often only in retrospect. Thus, the infamous ‘stab-in-the-back’ saw the German Social Democrats take power, just before the armistice was signed in 1918. At the time of writing (October 2019), the British are on the verge of a General Election and whoever wins, whoever becomes Prime Minister, will also be held responsible for the fallout from BREXIT – irrespective of their role in generating the political crisis; sometimes, it might be better not to seek power.

Prospects for Turkey in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Regional Economies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Justice And Development Party ◽  
Global Liquidity

Subject Prospects for Turkey in 2016. Significance This month's decisive electoral victory for the Justice and Development Party (AKP) has re-established President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's grip over the political landscape. In the economy, another challenging year lies ahead, wıth global liquidity tightening under way and European and regional economies still weak.

Denmark's weak new government faces complex alliances

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Political Strategy ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Spectrum ◽  
The Right

Significance The new government will have only 34 of the 179 seats, because policy differences among the right-wing parties, and the political strategy of the electorally strengthened anti-immigration, Euro-sceptic Danish People's Party (DF), mean DF will remain outside. Policy-making will be difficult. The government will be more economically liberal and pro-EU than it would have been with DF, but to make policy it will rely on partners across the political spectrum, especially the ousted Social Democrats -- who remain the largest party -- and DF. Impacts If DF is seen as a welfarist protector of ordinary citizens, it is more likely to repeat, at least, its 22% vote in the next election. The much-tighter immigration regime which is in prospect could taint Denmark's image and make it less attractive to foreign investment. The new government is likely to be an ally for much of UK Prime Minister David Cameron's EU reform agenda.

Disenchanted voters tilt strongly right in Brazil

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Off ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Electoral Performance ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Brazilian Politics

Subject The makeup of the new Congress. Significance The October 7 general elections reconfigured Brazilian politics. On the back of the success of presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro -- who fell just short of being elected in the first round --- the far right saw its representation expand significantly in a Congress where several established leaders lost seats they had held for decades. Gubernatorial candidates close to Bolsonaro also reached the run-off in key state races. Meanwhile, the traditional centre-right Social Democrats (PSDB) recorded their worst electoral performance since the party's foundation in the late 1980s. Impacts Bolsonaro's economically liberal credentials are unproven. Some of Bolsonaro's allies may oppose key economic reforms. A highly fragmented Congress will make governance challenging over time.

Brazil security policy proposals will prompt fears

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Police Officers ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Public Security ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Security Issue ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
President Elect ◽  
Policy Proposals

Subject Public security policy under the incoming government. Significance The new political landscape following the recent elections has accelerated the trend towards militarisation of public security responses to crime. President-elect Jair Bolsonaro has pledged to increase the focus on imprisonment and make it easier for police officers to shoot criminals. This is especially worrying in Rio de Janeiro, where a key Bolsonaro ally was elected governor and promised to form sniper teams to shoot suspected criminals, including from helicopters. Impacts The armed forces’ representation in the future cabinet will reinforce the narrative of crime as a ‘national security’ issue. The army may be deployed more frequently on the streets. Bolsonaro’s public security promises will require negotiations with state governments with direct responsibility for crime fighting. Disputes over the constitutionality of a plan to free police officers from prosecution may prompt fierce political and juridical debate.

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