Libya's premier will struggle to garner support

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
External Interference ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Turkish Foreign Policy ◽  
International Policies ◽  
The Government ◽  
Will Force ◽  
Opposing Camp

Significance Serraj assumed his post shortly after the Government of National Accord (GNA) came into existence in December 2015. However, four years on and the prime minister has failed to overcome divisions. Partly, this is the result of external interference in Libya and deep divisions within the country, but Serraj’s own personality means he has not managed to build bridges. Impacts The longer the conflict continues, the higher the risk of outside forces dictating the outcome. Turkey’s role as the GNA’s key backer will force Serraj to acquiesce to Turkish foreign policy. In the opposing camp, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates will continue to try to influence international policies towards Libya.

Prospects for India in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Government

Subject Prospects for India in 2016. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has accelerated its agenda of piecemeal and sequential reform following his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s defeat in the Bihar elections last month. As difficult state elections approach in the first half of 2016, the government is banking on these reforms and headline growth to secure voter and investor support. In foreign policy, the government is likely to focus on regions of strategic importance, especially Russia and the Middle East.

Gulf pressure will force southern Yemenis to deal

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Living Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Will Force ◽  
The City

Significance The fighting started on January 28, when the secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) acted on its threat to topple the Saudi-backed government, taking control of most of the city and besieging the prime minister. The STC draws support from militias including salafi fighters recruited, trained and equipped by the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Impacts The STC will struggle to build its support outside Aden in areas such as Abyan. STC efforts to put forward a political programme could create disunity, given the wide range of ideologies among its supporters. The Saudi-led coalition will invest more resources in improving living conditions in southern Yemen. Crisis contained, the coalition will refocus military efforts to capture the long-disputed central town of Taiz.

Watershed Thai election is unlikely

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Appeal ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Significance The next election will be the first since the military, led by then general, now Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, deposed Yingluck Shinawatra’s administration in May 2014. Impacts The prime minister’s Washington visit later this month will be portrayed as a pre-election display of foreign policy strength. The government will increase public investment for the remainder of this year, at least. This, it hopes, will maintain economic momentum, and strengthen the junta’s popular appeal. The post-election possibility of fresh political interventions by the military will concern investors.

United Kingdom's Corbyn unlikely to face coup soon

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Labour Party ◽  
General Election ◽  
Leadership Positions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Government ◽  
Parliamentary Support

Significance The centrist, 'Blairite' section of the party has been defeated and largely excluded from leadership positions. Corbyn's past statements and policy stances are widely believed to render him implausible as a potential prime minister, and thus the Labour Party unelectable with him as leader. The likelihood of the governing Conservatives winning the 2020 general election has increased. Impacts Corbyn is likely to back continued UK EU membership in the referendum, helping to protect him from an early party coup. Because of his previous ambivalence, Corbyn's backing for continued EU membership will make it harder for the left to back 'Brexit'. Foreign policy issues will be among the most difficult under Corbyn, both within the party and with the government. Given the government's small majority, Corbyn's win will make parliamentary support for air strikes against Syrian targets harder to secure. Corbyn's win is unlikely to restore Labour's fortunes in Scotland, potentially boosting support for independence.

Foreign policy shift will be limited in Brazil

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Shift ◽  
The Government ◽  
Will Force ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Foreign Ministry

Subject Foreign policy in the Michel Temer government. Significance New Foreign Minister Jose Serra seeks to signal a radical departure from policy under the centre-left governments of suspended President Dilma Rousseff and her predecessor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Nowhere is this more visible than in trade, where the Foreign Ministry has taken over policy responsibility from the Ministry for Development, Industry and Foreign Trade. The governing idea is that Brazil should abandon its focus on multilateral negotiations under the WTO framework and embrace regional trade deals from which it has largely abstained. Impacts As a political 'heavyweight', Serra boosts the role of the Foreign Ministry in the government. His apparent ambition to use the ministry as a launching pad for a 2018 presidential bid will not necessarily undermine his performance. However, it will force him to show significant results quickly.

Migrant crisis to complicate Cameron's EU negotiation

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Labour Party ◽  
House Of Commons ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Government

Significance As intended, the changes will temporarily ease the Conservative Party's internal atmosphere, most importantly before the October annual party conference. However, they are unlikely to alter the fundamentals of the referendum or its outcome. The more significant internal party battle will be over the terms of Prime Minister David Cameron's EU membership renegotiation. Impacts The government could still face a September 7 House of Commons defeat over 'purdah', despite its reversal on the issue. This would boost eurosceptic elements in the Labour Party before the September 12 leadership election result. Cameron's wish to discourage migration from the Middle East could intensify his foreign policy focus on the region.

Morocco challenges Algeria’s Gulf neutrality policies

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Steel Plant ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
International Arbitration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Subject Algeria's policy towards the Gulf. Significance The Algerian government in April concluded an agreement with a United Arab Emirates (UAE) company to invest in a steel plant in the eastern region of Annaba. The announcement of the deal comes amid friction with the UAE arising from the perception that Algeria is cultivating excessively friendly relations with Qatar, thereby taking sides in the bitter rivalry among Gulf Arab states that emerged in June 2017. Impacts Algeria will maintain its principle of non-interference and keep a low-key foreign policy. The government is looking to attract foreign investment generally as a result of low oil prices that have shrunk Algeria's revenues. The country’s restrictive business environment could see investors resort to international arbitration.

Spanish foreign policy will concern traditional allies

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Government

Subject Spanish foreign policy. Significance Spain does not see itself replacing the United Kingdom as one of the ‘Big 3’ in driving EU policymaking and cooperation after Brexit. Instead, the government of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will seek to prioritise Spanish interests in the Mediterranean and on Brexit, and will become less preoccupied with EU cooperation and integration. Spain is seeking a more balanced and broader relationship with the United States, but there is tension over the political crisis in Venezuela and trade issues. Impacts Relations with the United States will become more difficult, especially if President Donald Trump is re-elected. Although Spain would like to shift its regional emphasis towards Asia, Venezuela and the coronavirus could nullify that ambition. Immigration is now a priority, as further illegal inflows would fuel support for the far-right Vox party.

Unsettled Libyan politics may fuel violence in Tripoli

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Commander ◽  
The Government

Significance The violence is indicative of growing friction between local Tripolitanian militias under the influence of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and forces now loyal to the Government of National Unity (GNU), which in 2019 rallied from across western Libya to defend the capital from eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar’s siege. Impacts This is a last-ditch act by the UAE’s only remaining military assets in western Libya, and could provoke conflict with Turkish proxies. Violence involving Turkish-backed forces would refocus European attention on Ankara’s role in Libya and reignite pressure for a withdrawal. Renewed violence would end a recent economic revival in Tripoli, created by a period of peace and many reconstruction contracts.

Creeping authoritarianism is a real risk in Tunisia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Risk ◽  
Chief Prosecutor ◽  
Moderating Role ◽  
The Eu

Significance He did not name a new prime minister. Over July 25-26, Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hicham Mechichi, dissolved his government, suspended parliament for 30 days, lifted parliamentary immunity and declared himself chief prosecutor, triggering Tunisia’s worst political crisis in a decade. Impacts The Ennahda party could be persecuted once again, this time on corruption charges, as the reconciliation offered excludes its members. Tunisia may become a new ideological battleground, pitting Turkey and Qatar against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The EU, the United States and Algeria have some influence on Tunisia and could perhaps play a moderating role.

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