Battles ahead over US executive orders used to reform

Significance President Donald Trump is a keen advocate of executive orders, as were former Presidents George W Bush and Barack Obama. However, executive orders can be legally dubious. Impacts There will be uncertainty over whether Trump’s executive orders to tackle COVID-19 can survive legal challenge. Biden would use executive orders to unpick Trump’s legacy on environmental regulation. There will be further executive orders on immigration reform and border security, and these will be legally challenged.

Subject Turkish-US relations under a Trump presidency. Significance The election of Donald Trump adds another unprecedented dynamic to the complex US-Turkish relationship. So far, both sides have made cautious overtures to each other in the hope of a ‘reset’, after the relationship greatly deteriorated under Barack Obama. Impacts Erdogan wants a bigger role for Turkey in the Middle East and will be looking for Trump’s support to achieve this. Ankara will work with Washington to counter Tehran’s influence in Iraq. Turkey is unlikely to go along with a broader anti-Iranian effort in the region for fear of damaging its strategic ties with Tehran. If Trump and Erdogan fail to reset the relationship, Ankara may tilt even more towards Moscow.


Significance President Donald Trump issued two executive orders on August 6 that effectively ban the Chinese-owned apps TikTok and WeChat. The impact of the TikTok ban will be limited, but targeting WeChat strikes at the heart of the China-US digital ecosystem. Impacts TikTok's likely takeover by a US business will generate strong negative feelings in China, possibly triggering boycotts. Tencent's deep involvement with international content producers will decrease, further limiting content availability on the Chinese market. Fears of WeChat’s use an instrument of Chinese state power are well-founded, but the cost of banning may still exceed the benefit.


Significance US President-elect Joe Biden supports the agreement, from which his predecessor Donald Trump withdrew, and has named as his national security adviser Jake Sullivan, who under former President Barack Obama began the secret outreach that fostered the JCPOA. Impacts Biden will immediately lower the temperature by facilitating trade in medical supplies to fight COVID-19. An end to the ‘Muslim ban’ will likely mean Iranian citizens can again travel to the United States, pandemic permitting. Iran may halt or slow steps that violate JCPOA limits, such as the installation of advanced centrifuges.


Subject Cuba tourism challenges. Significance The US State Department in March reduced tourist visas for Cuban nationals, in a further sign of cooling bilateral relations. Under US President Donald Trump, several confidence-building bilateral measures introduced under former President Barack Obama have been rolled back, with limits on tourist visits and investment in Cuba by US firms reinstated. This is set to have a major impact on the tourism industry, one of the main drivers of Cuba’s economic growth and a key sector for investment by US companies. Impacts The Venezuela crisis will exacerbate Cuba-US tensions, with Washington blaming Havana for supporting Caracas. The government will prioritise tourism investment over social spending, potentially reducing incomes for Cubans. Conversely, tighter US rules may trigger a brief surge in US tourism to Cuba, for fear that the window of opportunity to visit is closing.


Significance Trump declared the emergency to access funding to build his campaign-pledged US-Mexico border security barrier. Impacts Trump’s base will welcome his continuing commitment to building the US-Mexico border wall. Democrats might need to offer Trump more wall-building money to avoid the risk that the courts side with him. Greater use of emergencies would destabilise policymaking; private firms would face higher risks supplying the government. Trump wants to work with Democrats on major immigration reform; success is possible but pre-2020, time and goodwill are limited.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ger Rijkers
Keyword(s):  

With the aid of the Nexis Uni database of newspaper, magazine and online articles, an analysis was made of Beatles songs associated with either Barack Obama or Donald Trump. The Beatles song most often associated with Donald Trump is "Helter Skelter", for Barack Obama this is "All Together Now"


Author(s):  
V. Iordanova ◽  
A. Ananev

The authors of this scientific article conducted a comparative analysis of the trade policy of US presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump. The article states that the tightening of trade policy by the current President is counterproductive and has a serious impact not only on the economic development of the United States, but also on the entire world economy as a whole.


Significance Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is preparing to welcome a more predictable and stable partner in Biden than outgoing Republican President Donald Trump. However, Biden is also expected quickly to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, cutting another lifeline to Canada’s oil industry and creating some strain in Canada-US ties. Impacts Improved Canada-US ties will persist even if Trudeau loses the next federal election to Conservative Erin O’Toole. Canada will re-engage militarily with UN peacekeeping and NATO deployments. Trudeau will encourage Biden to end US prosecution of Meng Wanzhou, allowing Canada to release her; Biden may agree. Canada’s border with the United States will open in stages as COVID-19 recedes. Ottawa will push Biden to end ‘Buy American’ procurement policies, with little success.


Headline UNITED STATES: Trump shows command of his party


Significance However, the departure of former US President Donald Trump -- who was an enthusiastic supporter of Brexit and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson -- has made this harder to achieve. Impacts Johnson will consider holding a snap election in 2023 to capitalise on the successful vaccination campaign and economic reopening. The failure to conclude a US-UK FTA would increase the prospects of an EU-UK veterinary agreement. Without a UK-EU veterinary agreement, the chances of persistent disruption on trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland will grow.


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