Worsening US relations weigh on Cuba tourism prospects

Subject Cuba tourism challenges. Significance The US State Department in March reduced tourist visas for Cuban nationals, in a further sign of cooling bilateral relations. Under US President Donald Trump, several confidence-building bilateral measures introduced under former President Barack Obama have been rolled back, with limits on tourist visits and investment in Cuba by US firms reinstated. This is set to have a major impact on the tourism industry, one of the main drivers of Cuba’s economic growth and a key sector for investment by US companies. Impacts The Venezuela crisis will exacerbate Cuba-US tensions, with Washington blaming Havana for supporting Caracas. The government will prioritise tourism investment over social spending, potentially reducing incomes for Cubans. Conversely, tighter US rules may trigger a brief surge in US tourism to Cuba, for fear that the window of opportunity to visit is closing.

Significance President Donald Trump wants to use DHS money to build a wall on the US-Mexico border to improve security and tackle crime. Yet Democrats say a wall is ineffective and ‘immoral’, partly as they disagree with Trump that there is any border crime or security crisis or emergency. This disagreement caused the longest federal government shutdown in history (35 days), which ended when Trump signed a Continuing Resolution to fund the government to midnight on February 15-16. Impacts Federal workers (but not contractors) will be fully reimbursed, benefitting consumption, and social spending will resume. Recently re-elected House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s leadership acumen will be further boosted among House Democrats. Trump will likely give his State of the Union Address to Congress on February 5, where he can bolster his political capital.


Significance Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has strived to maintain cordial relations with incumbent US President Donald Trump, despite his aggressive rhetoric towards Mexico. A Biden win would improve bilateral relations significantly. Impacts Biden’s interest in Mexico may stretch beyond trade and the border to a wider range of issues, leading AMLO to see him as interventionist. A Republican-dominated US Senate would increase attention on issues of interest to businesses, such as investor-state dispute settlement. Any easing of the US-China trade war could weaken the perceived urgency of the need to re-shore supply chains, to the detriment of Mexico. Mexico’s economic dependence on the United States will ensure AMLO maintains a pragmatic approach towards any bilateral disputes.


Significance The withdrawal is unlikely to bring the government down, but the ongoing constitutional crisis risks a return to the civil violence seen in the Terai region in late 2015, which resulted in over 40 fatalities. Impacts Nepal’s political gridlock will impede the actualisation of Chinese and Indian investment pledges. Economic growth is likely to falter in 2017, while post-earthquake reconstruction is still incomplete. A return of violence would damage Nepal’s tourism industry, but probably only temporarily.


Significance In an earlier meeting, the Iranian vice-president told Zeybekci that he distinguished between the positions of Ankara and Riyadh. Rising Iran-Turkey economic links and political rapprochement are of deep concern to Saudi Arabia. Despite friendly rhetoric, partially reflected in official media, the contradictory regional alliances of Saudi Arabia and Turkey have complicated their bilateral relations. Impacts The US election victory of Donald Trump will reshuffle complex regional alliances. A tougher US approach to Iran could empower Saudi Arabia, and may push Turkey firmly back into the Sunni camp. Saudi Arabia will seek Turkish diplomatic support for its military campaign against the Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen. Turkey's choice of allies in Syria will depend on their attitudes to Kurdish territorial aspirations.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanjay Sharma ◽  
Rekha Sharma

Purpose India is edging China to become the most populous country by 2028. More than 60 per cent of the current population of India is between 15 and 59 years of age, whereas domestically, its relatively youthful profile is seen as the biggest challenge for the government, as India is the largest employable manpower base globally. In the past two decades, the rate of population growth in India has reduced, but the skilled labor force is expected to grow almost 2 per cent annually for the next couple of years. Historically, the Indian economy has been mainly agriculturally based, but, with urbanization, the labor is drifting toward service sectors, and people are increasingly looking to develop their skills in sectors such as hotels, restaurants, airlines, retail and health care. To sustain economic growth, there is an urgent need to develop vocational training programs that address current needs. In spite of all the favorable numbers, the question that must be answered by employers and policymakers remains: Is the available labor being skilled appropriately to be employable? The mushrooming of educational and training institutes in India has imparted professional skills to youth, but industry leaders tend to talk about the unavailability of skilled labor, especially in the culinary skills arena. In a country like India, the labor market tends to alternate between the availability and shortage of skilled labor, and so it seems ironic that on the one hand, there is a shortage of staff and at the same time graduates from various colleges and professional institutes remain unemployed; the reason could be lack of employability skills, especially culinary skills. Given this, the hospitality and tourism industry has emerged as the main driver of the service sector in India; it contributes 6.23 per cent to National GDP and 8.78 per cent of the total employment in India, contributing to significant economic growth. In this context, it is imperative for the government to take appropriate steps in devising strategies to address the problem and also secure successful implementation. This paper aims to analyze the Skill India initiative for the hospitality sector and compare it with the realities on the ground, with particular reference to culinary skills. Design/methodology/approach The research reported here was conducted using primary and secondary sources. Industry data were collected through focused groups and roundtable discussions. Online sources, magazines, newspapers and books are referred to as secondary sources, and the data collected are critically analyzed to reach a conclusion. Findings There is a significant increase in foreign and domestic tourists, and the subsectors discussed are very closely linked to food, health, traditional cooking, regional and seasonal cuisines. The demand for Indian food and slow cooking is increasing; however, despite various government initiatives, there is no significant improvement in the skill set of the available labor. As food is an important component of all tourism packages, there is a particular need for public–private partnerships to take the Skill India initiative to the next level. That said, academic standards and curriculum must align with international quality frameworks and be in sync with current and future industry demands and benchmarks. Research limitations/implications The dependence on the sources available online and their credibility remains the biggest challenge; however, increasing the sample size and more participation from nodal bodies and government officials would have broadened the base of the study. Originality/value The research adds value for industry leaders and policymakers at large. Educational institutions, students and hoteliers will find it useful as they attempt to bridge the gap and plan a roadmap according to industry requirements.


Significance The surge in fighting that started on January 29 was the worst since early 2015, but seems to have died down for now. The causes are unclear, although it began a day after the first phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump since the US president's inauguration. The geopolitics are complicated by local issues such as disputes over trade with the rebel territories. Impacts Unless Kyiv caves in, Russia's refusal to return control of the border to Ukraine will block implementation of the Minsk 2.0 agreement. If Kyiv introduces martial law in eastern regions, this is likely to be seen as the death of the Minsk peace process. The government will be discredited if it cannot stop or regulate trade with rebel areas, but this will not be enough to force an election.


Significance The budget was subsequently presented to parliament for discussion on October 18. The 2022 budget was increased to USD27bn, up from USD25.4bn in 2021. Akhannouch’s Five Year Plan is expansive and comes against a backdrop of renewed projected economic growth for 2022. Impacts COVID-19 will complicate the revival of Morocco’s tourism industry, a large and quick source of hard currency. The government has publicised the social welfare components of the plan, but it is unlikely to have the capacity to implement them. Disparity between the human capital of urban centres such as Rabat and Casablanca and the hinterland will impede wide reforms.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 7164
Author(s):  
Guillermo Vázquez Vicente ◽  
Victor Martín Barroso ◽  
Francisco José Blanco Jiménez

Tourism has become a priority in national and regional development policies and is considered a source of economic growth, particularly in rural areas. Nowadays, wine tourism is an important form of tourism and has become a local development tool for rural areas. Regional tourism development studies based on wine tourism have a long history in several countries such as the US and Australia, but are more recent in Europe. Although Spain is a leading country in the tourism industry, with an enormous wine-growing tradition, the literature examining the economic impact of wine tourism in Spanish economy is scarce. In an attempt to fill this gap, the main objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of wine tourism on economic growth and employment in Spain. More specifically, by applying panel data techniques, we study the economic impact of tourism in nine Spanish wine routes in the period from 2008 to 2018. Our results suggest that tourism in these wine routes had a positive effect on economic growth. However, we do not find clear evidence of a positive effect on employment generation.


Significance The RBA has cut its growth forecasts amid rising job losses, weakening demand and increasing signs that the latest COVID-19 lockdowns will continue to slow the economy until the pace of the vaccine roll-out programme can be increased. Impacts Although the RBA is independent, the government will hope it keeps rates low ahead of the elections due next year. Commercial lenders could raise interest rates independently of the RBA if inflation remains high. Wage pressures will re-emerge as labour markets tighten but may be mitigated by the extent of underemployment. Economic growth will be uneven across the country in coming months as pandemic-related restrictions vary by location.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Zia Wahdat ◽  
Michael Gunderson

PurposeThe study investigates whether there is an association between climate types and farm risk attitudes of principal operators.Design/methodology/approachThe study exploits temperature variation in the diverse climate types across the US and defines hot- and cold-climate states. Ordered logit and generalized ordered logit models are used to model principal operators' farm risk attitudes, which are measured on a Likert scale. The study uses two datasets. The first dataset is a 2017 survey of US large commercial producers (LCPs). The second dataset provides a Köppen-Geiger climate classification of the US at a spatial resolution of 5 arcmin for a 25-year period (1986–2010).FindingsThe study finds that principal operators in hot-climate states are 4–5% more likely to have a higher willingness to take farm risk compared to principal operators in cold-climate states.Research limitations/implicationsIt is likely that farm risk mitigation decisions differ between hot- and cold-climate states. For instance, the authors show that corn acres' enrollment in federal crop insurance and computers' usage for farm business are pursued more intensely in cold-climate states than in hot-climate states. A differentiation of farm risk attitude by hot- and cold-climate states may help agribusiness, the government and economists in their farm product offerings, farm risk management programs and agricultural finance models, respectively.Originality/valueBased on Köppen-Geiger climate classification, the study introduces hot- and cold-climate concepts to understand the relationship between climate types and principal operators' farm risk attitudes.


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