Iran-US nuclear deal revival efforts will face hurdles

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Medical Supplies ◽  
President Elect ◽  
National Security Adviser

Significance US President-elect Joe Biden supports the agreement, from which his predecessor Donald Trump withdrew, and has named as his national security adviser Jake Sullivan, who under former President Barack Obama began the secret outreach that fostered the JCPOA. Impacts Biden will immediately lower the temperature by facilitating trade in medical supplies to fight COVID-19. An end to the ‘Muslim ban’ will likely mean Iranian citizens can again travel to the United States, pandemic permitting. Iran may halt or slow steps that violate JCPOA limits, such as the installation of advanced centrifuges.

Huawei 5G role prompts diplomatic pressures in Brazil

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Brazilian Government ◽  
Medical Supplies ◽  
Defence Industry ◽  
5G Network ◽  
Infrastructure Investments ◽  
Potential Option

Subject The politics of 5G in Brazil. Significance Brazil has started the process of choosing the supplier of its 5G network. The United States is a key player in this competition, and US President Donald Trump himself lobbied against the potential option of China’s Huawei during a March dinner with his Brazilian counterpart Jair Bolsonaro. While these efforts seek to reduce Huawei’s chances in the 5G auction, there is resistance within parts of the Brazilian government. Moreover, a diplomatic faux pas by Bolsonaro’s son may have favoured China’s position. Impacts US overtures may favour the Brazilian defence industry, with new partnerships on the cards. Beijing may seek to increase Huawei’s attractiveness with further Chinese infrastructure investments in Brazil. China will take advantage of its position as a provider of medical supplies and expertise to promote its position in Brazil. The result of the auction could prove to be a compromise arrangement grudgingly accepted by both sides.

Next US president will confront nuclear disorder

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Presidential Transition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nuclear Policy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Nuclear Response

Significance As Barack Obama eyes the January 2017 presidential transition, Washington's decades-long goal of a stable global nuclear order appears to be under threat from multiple quarters. Obama was mulling a US nuclear posture shift in August, whereby he would declare that the United States would only launch its nuclear deterrent in response to a nuclear strike by an adversary, ruling out a nuclear response to a conventional attack on US or allied forces. Impacts Deviation by Washington from support of disarmament and existing legal instruments could strain ties with some US allies. Trump's unorthodox positions on nuclear policy will promote defections by national security Republicans to Clinton's camp. A candidate's campaign trail rhetoric is likely to influence the credibility of the US nuclear deterrent once in office.

Canada’s Trudeau will welcome Biden’s US win

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Wall Street ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Middle Power ◽  
The World ◽  
Keystone Xl

Significance Canada-US ties have seen some friction under President Donald Trump; Biden’s administration is an opportunity for calmer ties. The change of president in the United States will have implications for Canada’s economy, trade, environmental policy and national security, and could help bolster Canada as a global middle power. Impacts Bay Street (Canada’s Wall Street) will monitor Biden’s economic policy appointees closely. Trudeau’s government will lobby Biden to support the Keystone XL pipeline. Canada will support Washington on the world stage, including as Biden returns Washington to international bodies. Trudeau could call an early election in 2021, though cancellation of Keystone XL would limit his support in Alberta.

Prospects for US foreign policy to end-2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mass Shooting

Subject Prospects for US foreign policy to end-2016. Significance The June 12 mass shooting in Orlando will sharpen US partisan divisions ahead of November's elections, making it more challenging for President Barack Obama to focus on international developments in his final months in office. Before his successor is inaugurated in January 2017, Obama will seek to build political support in Washington for his distinctive view of the United States' global role, convey steady stewardship of US national security ahead of the election, preserve the foreign policy achievements of his presidency and manage any regional challenges.

US financial reform efforts will wane under Trump

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Financial Regulation ◽  
Free Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Financial Reform ◽  
Regulatory Agencies ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
President Elect ◽  
Financial Regulatory

Subject US financial regulation outlook. Significance President-elect Donald Trump can make a decisive imprint on the financial regulatory institutions and practices of the United States. By selecting individuals who share the free-market principles he seeks to promote, he can reshape the personnel at key agencies. In tandem, he can work with the Republican-controlled Congress to enact new legislation delimiting regulatory agencies’ brief, authority and resources. Impacts Presidential appointees to head agencies will determine what issues are prioritised and how interventionist policy will be. A Trump SEC chair appointee is likely to encourage a return to industry self-policing over federal scrutiny and enforcement. Backsliding by US regulators could have a negative knock-on effect for international Basel IV negotiations.

Comparative analysis of the trade policy of Barack Obama and Donald Trump

2020 ◽  
pp. 59-71
Author(s):  
V. Iordanova ◽  
A. Ananev
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Scientific Article ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Entire World

The authors of this scientific article conducted a comparative analysis of the trade policy of US presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump. The article states that the tightening of trade policy by the current President is counterproductive and has a serious impact not only on the economic development of the United States, but also on the entire world economy as a whole.

Canada-US ties will see fewer irritants under Biden

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Keystone Xl ◽  
Keystone Xl Pipeline

Significance Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is preparing to welcome a more predictable and stable partner in Biden than outgoing Republican President Donald Trump. However, Biden is also expected quickly to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, cutting another lifeline to Canada’s oil industry and creating some strain in Canada-US ties. Impacts Improved Canada-US ties will persist even if Trudeau loses the next federal election to Conservative Erin O’Toole. Canada will re-engage militarily with UN peacekeeping and NATO deployments. Trudeau will encourage Biden to end US prosecution of Meng Wanzhou, allowing Canada to release her; Biden may agree. Canada’s border with the United States will open in stages as COVID-19 recedes. Ottawa will push Biden to end ‘Buy American’ procurement policies, with little success.

Crises and 'pivot' will boost US intelligence agencies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Intelligence Community ◽  
National Security Agency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Public Scrutiny

Subject The US intelligence community in a year after purported reforms. Significance On December 29, an agreement between the United States, Japan and South Korea to share intelligence on North Korea went into effect. This ended a year in which the US intelligence community was the subject of broad domestic public scrutiny in the light of continued fallout from former National Security Agency (NSA) contractor Edward Snowden's leaks to a Senate report on the CIA's use of torture. The White House's support for reforms has been watched by tech and telecoms businesses that have lost considerable revenue from reputational damage as a result of the growing awareness of requirements on them of US intelligence activities. Impacts The Obama administration will rely on the US intelligence community as its main counterterrorist instrument. A Republican Congress will be less likely to support intelligence reforms, though only marginally so. There is no indication that the balance of power on intelligence issues between the executive and legislative branches has shifted.

US armed UAV precedent will hinder global rules-making

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles ◽  
Policy Reform ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
International Norms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Intelligence Sharing ◽  
Aerial Vehicles ◽  
Wide Range

Subject Post-Obama armed UAV policy. Significance As President Barack Obama prepares to leave office in January 2017, his administration has called for the United States to lead development of a set of international norms to govern the use of armed UAVs ('unmanned aerial vehicles' or 'drones'). The international proliferation and military use of armed UAVs by nations outside the circle of trusted US allies have highlighted the urgency of formulating clearly articulated international rules to govern an otherwise vaguely defined arena of international behaviour dominated by US precedent. Impacts Congressional aversion to supporting ground interventions abroad will enable the next president further to delay UAV policy reform. A wide range of countries frustrated with restrictions from Washington may turn to China as a key supplier of armed UAVs. Failed US efforts to reform the covert drone programme may complicate intelligence-sharing with European allies.

Russia prioritises ties with West despite its rhetoric

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Cooperation ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
The West ◽  
Policy Document ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term

Subject Russia's new foreign policy document. Significance A new foreign policy concept presents Russia as a nation facing a range of security threats but nevertheless willing to play a global role in a multipolar, chaotic and unpredictable world. Replacing the 2013 foreign policy concept, the document also attempts to assuage fears of Russian expansionist intent. Impacts Assumptions about the United States may change rapidly under President Donald Trump. Moscow will strengthen its foothold in Syria as a bargaining chip with the West and to show its resolve not to back down under pressure. Russia will refuse to relax control over Ukraine's eastern regions. Asian policy will consist partly of courting China and partly of seeking alliances to counterbalance this. Economic cooperation with Japan will be constrained by lack of a near-term deal on territorial issues.

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