Economic orthodoxy will face challenges in Argentina

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Exposure ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
High Poverty ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Primary Deficit

Significance The 2021 budget implies a significant fiscal adjustment, with the primary deficit falling from 7-8% of GDP in 2020 to 4.5% in 2021, mainly due to the end of the pandemic relief package, a reduction of energy and transport subsidies and slower pension increases. These measures are in line with recent moves towards more orthodox economic policies. Impacts More prudent policies could ease fears of populism, but investors will remain reluctant to increase their risk exposure. Given high poverty rates, austerity may drive social unrest, affecting the government’s prospects in 2021 mid-term ballots. While fiscal adjustment and structural reforms could aid medium-term sustained economic growth, they will cut short-term growth.

Angolan oil sector reform will require innovation

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sector Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Oil Company

Subject Sonangol priorities. Significance Early structural reforms by new President Joao Lourenco and more positive economic projections for 2018 suggest a potential uptick in Angola’s fiscal fortunes. Since assuming power in September, Lourenco has overhauled the leadership of state-owned oil company Sonangol and dismissed several prominent officials associated with his predecessor Jose Eduardo dos Santos. Separately, Lourenco has moved to tackle the overvalued kwanza. While this will raise debt-servicing costs, this will be partly ameliorated by the recent oil price of over 60 dollars per barrel. Impacts Scrapping the dollar currency peg will help ease the foreign exchange crisis and end payment constraints in the aviation and oil sectors. A more realistic exchange rate will fuel inflation in the short term but will likely improve medium-term economic prospects. Urban support for the People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) could decline further if reforms remain elite-focused.

Czech vote may raise chances of new ANO-led government

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Capacity Constraints ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Content Type

Significance Now that Zeman has successfully retaken the presidency with 152,000 more votes than his pro-Western rival Jiri Drahos after a campaign that was dominated by domestic issues, attention will focus once again on forming a majority government after the largest parliamentary party, ANO 2011, lost a vote of confidence on January 16. Impacts Consumer confidence may strengthen in the short term as the old ANO-CSSD government’s policies take effect, providing an economic boost. Robust household consumption and public- and private-backed investment may also contribute to stronger GDP this year. Although monetary policy is set to tighten, in response to signs of overheating, interest rates will remain at historic lows. The outlook for the economy in the short term is upbeat, with a strong outturn expected for the fourth quarter of 2017. Structural reforms will be required over the medium term to reduce the risk of capacity constraints, especially in industry.

New measures will provide temporary relief for Greece

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Temporary Relief ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Public Opposition

Significance The new forecast is based on strong results in the second quarter, better-than-expected tourism revenues over the summer months and the approval of the Greek Recovery and Resilience Plan by the European Commission in July. Mitsotakis also announced several new measures, including tax cuts to stimulate spending. Impacts High unemployment (14.2% of the labour force) and structural labour market weaknesses will constrain growth. Structural reforms lost momentum during the pandemic, dampening medium-term economic growth prospects. Public opposition to vaccination might necessitate new movement restrictions by year-end, inhibiting growth. Availability of a EUR30bn liquidity buffer will support sovereign ratings and investor interest in the short term. Short- and medium-term public debt refinancing risks remain low as 75% of debt stock is held by the official sector.

When social media traumatizes teens

2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 1169-1188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bridget Christine McHugh ◽  
Pamela Wisniewski ◽  
Mary Beth Rosson ◽  
John M. Carroll
Keyword(s):  
Risk Exposure ◽  
Ptsd Symptoms ◽  
Post Traumatic Stress ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Coping Responses ◽  
Online Risk ◽  
Post Traumatic ◽  
Explicit Content

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the extent to which negative online risk experiences (information breaches, explicit content exposure, cyberbullying and sexual solicitations) cause post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms in adolescents. The study also explores whether teens’ short-term coping responses serve to mitigate PTSD or, instead, act as a response to stress from online events. Design/methodology/approach The study utilized a web-based diary design over the course of two months. Data were analyzed using hierarchical linear modeling with repeated measures. Findings The study confirmed that explicit content exposure, cyberbullying and sexual solicitations (but not information breaches) evoke symptoms of PTSD. Analyses also indicated that teens engage in active and communicative coping after they experience post-traumatic stress, regardless of risk type or frequency. Practical implications The authors found that teens took active measures to cope with online risks soon after they felt threatened (within a week). Actively coping with stressful situations has been shown to enhance adolescent resilience and reduce long-term negative effects of risk exposure. If these early coping behaviors can be detected, social media platforms may be able to embed effective interventions to support healthy coping processes that can further protect teens against long-term harm from exposure to online risks. Originality/value This is the first study to examine situational PTSD symptoms related to four types of adolescent online risk exposure within the week exposure occurred. By applying two competing theoretical frameworks (the adolescent resilience framework and transactional theory of stress), the authors show empirical evidence that suggests short-term coping responses are likely a stress reaction to PTSD, not a protective factor against it.

Africa's 'oil price winners' face mixed prospects

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Africa ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Political Space ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
Sub Saharan

Subject Africa's oil price winners. Significance Despite traditionally being winners during periods of oil price decline, the medium-term outlook is mixed for sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) oil importing countries -- reflected in the IMF's recent downgrade of its SSA outlook from 5.75% to 4.9%. Short-term gains reduce the fuel import bill, but uncertainty looms over energy investments in eastern African, while idiosyncratic risks cloud the outlook for southern Africa. While oil exporters may also reap some benefits, much will depend on the degree of oil dependency, political space to make the necessary policy retrenchments, and the extent of government financial buffers. Impacts If sustained, low oil prices could provoke civil unrest, rather than reforms, in oil exporting countries. Most oil exporters will struggle to maintain macroeconomic stability if oil remains low for more than a year. However, economic diversification to some degree helps to shield the region from sharp global slowdowns.

Politics set to slow Pakistan's divestment drive

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Political Patronage ◽  
The Government ◽  
Core Condition

Subject Pakistan's divestment drive. Significance Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government describes divestment of public sector enterprises (PSEs), involving 69 firms, as an essential part of its 2013-18 economic reform agenda. Progress thus far is limited, but the government faces rising pressure from the IMF, which made divestment a core condition of its 6.6-billion-dollar, three-year loan in September 2013. Impacts Another government led by Sharif would continue gradual divestments after 2018. Since PSEs are an important vector for distributing political patronage, structural reforms will face stiff resistance. Divestment of profitable PSEs defeats the purpose of the exercise, but the government will use them for a short-term cash boost.

Nigerian government's self-sufficiency goals will lag

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Small Scale ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Farming Practices ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Core Inflation ◽  
Parboiled Rice ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Grey Market ◽  
The Government

Subject Nigerian self-sufficiency push. Significance The government has renewed efforts to prioritise food self-sufficiency and modernise farming practices. However, despite the impetus to drive sector growth and diversify away from oil, necessary wider structural reforms have stalled. Impacts Big-ticket programmes will attract most international focus despite the investment potential in Nigeria's mainly small-scale holdings. Growth in agricultural output will remain low in the medium term as inefficiencies persist and core inflation remains elevated. The government’s import ban may aid domestic production targets but will further encourage a flourishing ‘grey market’ (eg, parboiled rice).

Vaca Muerta development could disappoint in Argentina

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vaca Muerta ◽  
Shale Formation ◽  
Positive Results ◽  
Attention Shifts

Subject The Vaca Muerta shale formation. Significance Argentina’s huge Vaca Muerta shale formation is now beginning to be exploited. With the recovery in global oil prices likely to be sustained over the short-to-medium term, the international oil industry is cautiously and selectively regaining its investment appetite. Impacts Falling conventional hydrocarbons investments as attention shifts to Vaca Muerta may affect output if shale does not meet expectations. If the government’s investor-friendly approach fails to yield positive results, reversal of its often-unpopular economic policies is likely. Failure to meet output aspirations would sustain heavy dependence on energy imports.

Contradictory Argentine policies mar stability hopes

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Policy Making ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Public Works ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tax Amnesty ◽  
Primary Deficit

Subject The difficulties of economic policy-making. Significance The first-quarter primary deficit reached 0.4% of GDP, below the quarterly goal of 0.6%. The rise in revenues, mainly due to the tax amnesty that ended in March, helped offset higher spending in areas such as social security payments and capital investment, driven by the pre-election revival of public works. However, in the absence of extraordinary revenues during the rest of the year, it will be harder to meet fiscal targets. Impacts The lack of coordination between fiscal and monetary policies raises concerns over macroeconomic stability. This will further discourage consumption and investment, preventing a sustained economic recovery. Growing fiscal and external deficits will raise risks of a balance-of-payments crisis in the medium term.

Monetary tightening carries high cost in Argentina

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Volatility ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Debt Default ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government

Significance Despite its commitment to a floating exchange rate, the government has been forced to prioritise exchange rate stabilisation. After the change of Central Bank (BCRA) authorities in mid-June failed to stop the latest currency run, the government further tightened monetary policy. Aiming to alleviate fears of a new medium-term debt default, the government is emphasising its commitment to fiscal adjustment, even including the possibility of new taxes, which runs counter to efforts to reduce tax pressure. Impacts Interest rate rises and closer control of monetary aggregates may prompt a recession. Depreciation will help to reduce the current account deficit in 2018 but will worsen debt indicators. Growing political uncertainty and difficulty in cutting public spending will sustain financial volatility.

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