New USAID head will strengthen its foreign policy role

Significance The choice of Power, a former ambassador to the UN, indicates that the Biden administration intends a robust approach to international assistance that will incorporate her background in human rights. The appointment has largely been welcomed in foreign policy circles. Impacts The Biden administration will use aid programmes in its efforts to re-establish ties with partners and multilateral institutions. Congressional control of appropriations for the agency will limit any major increase in levels of foreign assistance. The breadth of issues within its remit means USAID risks spreading its resources too thinly to achieve the desired impact.

Significance Any Trump-Rouhani meeting would undoubtedly involve discussion of religion and politics, since these issues have set both governments at odds since the Iranian Islamic revolution in 1979. This is important, since the nature of the influence that religion is having on US foreign policy is changing under Trump’s administration. The administration has often downplayed the role of ‘values’ (understood to be the promotion of democracy and human rights) in foreign policy. Now, religious freedom is emerging as a values framework. Religion is also used more frequently to justify the administration’s policies towards complicated issues including Iran and Syria, and counterterrorism. Impacts Defense Secretary James Mattis would likely oppose any attempt at regime change in Iran. Emphasising religious freedom will play well to pro-evangelical voters, likely most benefitting Republicans. The administration will increase funding for anti-genocide and anti-religious-persecution measures. Perceptions that the Trump administration is ‘anti-Muslim’ could constrain it advancing foreign policy in Muslim countries. US sanctions could be imposed on religious grounds, which could affect US and other investors.


Significance This comes after the formal withdrawal of the Dutch ambassador to Turkey in early February and the resignation of Foreign Minister Halbe Zijlstra on February 13 marked new lows in the Netherlands’ relations with Ankara and Moscow, respectively. Impacts Poor bilateral relations could hit Dutch tourism to Turkey. Tension with Russia combined with shrinking domestic reserves may encourage the Dutch to move away from gas as the main energy resource. The Netherlands is likely to reject any further talks about Turkey’s EU accession for the foreseeable future. The Netherland’s foreign policy focus on human rights, particularly of minority groups, could further sour relations with Turkey and Russia.


Significance Pompeo launched the commission on July 8, charging it with providing “fresh thinking” on human rights where concepts of rights have “departed from our nation’s founding principles of natural law and natural rights”. However, the body’s precise activities are left vague. The commission is also widely interpreted as an effort to infuse the current framework for human rights in US foreign policy with more conservative social values. Impacts The commission could be a flashpoint in budget negotiations down to September/October and beyond. The body will likely reinterpret rights more conservatively, including on abortion and LGBT issues, and elevate religious liberty. The pro-Israel lobby will welcome the commission, partly as the UN has been criticised as being ‘anti-Israel’.


Significance Brazil’s international standing has been undermined this year by a series of controversies that reflect both the worldview and the domestic agenda of far-right President Jair Bolsonaro. Brasilia has reacted with aggressive and nationalistic responses to objections to its environmental policies, as well as the erosion of democracy and human rights in the country. Impacts Brasilia believes it has lost a ‘communication war’ over Amazonia, but better communication will not ease global concerns. Brazilian agribusinesses will become increasingly preoccupied with the trade and climate consequences of deforestation. Regional clashes risk undermining Brazil’s export markets and diplomatic influence. EU reactions to Bolsonaro's Amazon policy make rejection of the Mercosur-EU trade deal even more likely.


Significance The investigations relate to concerns that Trump abused his office by seeking to have a political rival, former Vice President Joe Biden, investigated by Ukraine, which Trump denies. It has brought into the spotlight the conduct of US policy towards Ukraine, and that has seen criticism of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. It also comes as the Trump administration’s senior foreign policy team has seen personnel shifts. Impacts Pence will focus on foreign policy issues that resonate with evangelical voters, notably Israel and Middle Eastern Christians. Pence will also focus on promoting security and human rights abroad, leaving trade policy to Trump and trade officials. Pence will throw his support and influence behind getting the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement passed, and a US-China trade deal.


Significance The report is intended to guide future thinking on human rights in US foreign policy and to emphasise a global battle for values versus China and Russia. It also has a clear electoral aspect, as the selected rights will appeal to religious conservatives and strict constructionists in the legal sector, two groups that President Donald Trump will rely on as he seeks re-election this November. Impacts A Democratic president would discard the Commission on Unalienable Rights and the report. A Democratic president would focus on a wide range of ‘new’ human rights areas. The report will curtail Trump's scope to downplay rights disputes with Russia and China.


Significance A more functional US-EU collaboration will have collateral effects on elite behaviour and agendas in Central-Eastern Europe (CEE). The emphasis of the Biden administration's foreign policy will shift to balancing security commitments with promoting liberal values such as democracy, human rights, anti-corruption measures and rule of law, but the region will not be high on his agenda. Impacts The Biden administration will backpedal on the Trump policy on Serbia and Kosovo and concentrate on preserving Balkan territorial integrity. EU pressure on eastern member states to transition away from coal industries will attract more US firms in the energy sector. The importance of the US diplomatic corps in pushing Biden's liberal-values agenda in CEE will be magnified.


Significance The Homeland Union-Christian Democrat (TS-LDK)-led government sworn in on December 11 will make no changes to Lithuania’s US- and EU-aligned and anti-Moscow foreign policy. The conservative-liberal cabinet is more coherent than its predecessor, the country’s youngest (average age 42) and its most female (six ministers out of 14). Impacts Government policy will absorb previous cabinets’ good practice. Lithuania’s democratic political culture will improve after the toxic rule of the LZVS-led coalition. The opposition will be divided on values but agree on social issues, with the Social Democrats contributing to human rights policies.


Significance The advent of a new US administration has presented Egypt with an opportunity to reaffirm its regional strategic importance, but also created new risks. Impacts The United States will remain an important factor in Egyptian foreign policy and military procurement, but it is no longer central. An accommodation between Egypt and Turkey may be feasible, and Saudi Arabia could support it, but the UAE might oppose it. Sisi will ignore Western criticisms of Egypt’s human rights record, calculating that the risk of any effective sanctions is low.


Significance Separately, his administration on February 11 announced a sanctions regime to pressure the Myanmar military to reverse the recent coup. It has also instigated a return to membership of the Geneva-based UN Human Rights Council, which the former US administration left in 2018. Impacts A values-based foreign policy will connect with Congress, where there is support for human rights and democracy promotion. Biden will exacerbate some political tensions over Israel as he increases US participation in international human rights foruns. Under international law, the designation of China’s treatment of Muslim Uighurs as genocide would require action from Washington.


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