Dutch ties with Turkey and Russia may not recover soon

Significance This comes after the formal withdrawal of the Dutch ambassador to Turkey in early February and the resignation of Foreign Minister Halbe Zijlstra on February 13 marked new lows in the Netherlands’ relations with Ankara and Moscow, respectively. Impacts Poor bilateral relations could hit Dutch tourism to Turkey. Tension with Russia combined with shrinking domestic reserves may encourage the Dutch to move away from gas as the main energy resource. The Netherlands is likely to reject any further talks about Turkey’s EU accession for the foreseeable future. The Netherland’s foreign policy focus on human rights, particularly of minority groups, could further sour relations with Turkey and Russia.

Subject Mexican foreign policy. Significance Representatives of Mexico on February 6 called upon Venezuela’s government and opposition to enter into dialogue to resolve their country’s deepening political crisis. Mexico has refused to join regional powers in condemning the Venezuelan government, or in recognising opposition congressman Juan Guaido as interim president, as President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) attempts to refocus Mexico’s foreign policy stance on the principles of non-intervention, pacific conflict resolution and development cooperation. According to Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard, Mexico will limit its role in the international sphere to work on three key issues -- protection of human rights, strengthening of democratic values and action on climate change. Impacts Migration increasingly will be a source of US tensions, as Trump pushes his objective of containing Central American migrants in Mexico. The reduction in the foreign ministry's budget will hinder its ability to carry out its traditional and added responsibilities effectively. Mexican isolationism may limit international scrutiny in areas where Mexico has significant shortcomings (particularly human rights).


Significance The decision followed Mexico’s hosting in June of the forty-seventh General Assembly of the Organization of American States (OAS), during which a Mexico-led proposal to condemn the Venezuelan government of President Nicolas Maduro for anti-democratic practices failed to secure the necessary votes. Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray said that despite this outcome, Mexico would maintain a critical stance towards the Maduro regime due to its human rights abuses and refusal to respect social and political liberties. His statement confirms a recent shift in Mexico’s traditional non-interventionist foreign policy posture. Impacts Washington’s hostility will add urgency to Mexico’s efforts to redefine its foreign policy stance. The mismatch between Mexico’s foreign policy positions and its domestic reality will raise awkward questions for the government. Lopez Obrador will face increasing pressure to condemn Maduro, and assertions that his leftist presidency would ruin Mexico.


2002 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 992-1010 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. R. (Peter R.) Baehr ◽  
Monique C Castermans-Holleman ◽  
Fred Grunfeld

Subject Brazilian foreign policy under Aloysio Nunes. Significance Senator Aloysio Nunes, who took office as foreign minister on March 7, is an experienced politician from the centre-right Social Democrats (PSDB). He led the bloc supporting the government of President Michel Temer in the Senate, where he was also since 2015 head of the Commission of Foreign Affairs and National Defence. Nunes replaces Jose Serra at the foreign ministry and will seek overall continuity of Serra's agenda focused on the pursuit of trade opening and border security. Impacts Brazil lacks a clear strategy for its crucial relationship with China. Border security, a key issue for Serra, will remain important for Nunes. Domestic politics may divert Nunes’s attention as the 2018 elections approach.


Significance Any Trump-Rouhani meeting would undoubtedly involve discussion of religion and politics, since these issues have set both governments at odds since the Iranian Islamic revolution in 1979. This is important, since the nature of the influence that religion is having on US foreign policy is changing under Trump’s administration. The administration has often downplayed the role of ‘values’ (understood to be the promotion of democracy and human rights) in foreign policy. Now, religious freedom is emerging as a values framework. Religion is also used more frequently to justify the administration’s policies towards complicated issues including Iran and Syria, and counterterrorism. Impacts Defense Secretary James Mattis would likely oppose any attempt at regime change in Iran. Emphasising religious freedom will play well to pro-evangelical voters, likely most benefitting Republicans. The administration will increase funding for anti-genocide and anti-religious-persecution measures. Perceptions that the Trump administration is ‘anti-Muslim’ could constrain it advancing foreign policy in Muslim countries. US sanctions could be imposed on religious grounds, which could affect US and other investors.


Significance Pompeo launched the commission on July 8, charging it with providing “fresh thinking” on human rights where concepts of rights have “departed from our nation’s founding principles of natural law and natural rights”. However, the body’s precise activities are left vague. The commission is also widely interpreted as an effort to infuse the current framework for human rights in US foreign policy with more conservative social values. Impacts The commission could be a flashpoint in budget negotiations down to September/October and beyond. The body will likely reinterpret rights more conservatively, including on abortion and LGBT issues, and elevate religious liberty. The pro-Israel lobby will welcome the commission, partly as the UN has been criticised as being ‘anti-Israel’.


Significance Brazil’s international standing has been undermined this year by a series of controversies that reflect both the worldview and the domestic agenda of far-right President Jair Bolsonaro. Brasilia has reacted with aggressive and nationalistic responses to objections to its environmental policies, as well as the erosion of democracy and human rights in the country. Impacts Brasilia believes it has lost a ‘communication war’ over Amazonia, but better communication will not ease global concerns. Brazilian agribusinesses will become increasingly preoccupied with the trade and climate consequences of deforestation. Regional clashes risk undermining Brazil’s export markets and diplomatic influence. EU reactions to Bolsonaro's Amazon policy make rejection of the Mercosur-EU trade deal even more likely.


Significance Reunion of the island is now an option, for the first time since the Turkish invasion of 1974. There is strong international support, but designing a deal acceptable to both sides may be more difficult than some politicians and public opinion on both sides suppose. Tough choices and sophisticated compromises will be necessary in the next few months and may not be forthcoming. Yet among both Greek and Turkish Cypriots, there are expectations that a settlement could revitalise the island, where both sides' economies are stagnating. Impacts Agreement would ease decades-old tensions between Greece and Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean, benefiting NATO and the EU. However, a settlement would not significantly unblock the path of Turkey's EU accession bid. Cyprus would become a more appealing destination for foreign investment and tourism. With left-wing politicians on both sides deciding the deal, NATO and US interests would have to be safeguarded during talks. Turkey must decide how to respond to the unwinding of a four decades-old foreign policy.


Subject Prospects for Russian foreign policy in 2017. Significance President Vladimir Putin and senior Russian officials have hailed Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election. Putin acknowledged that repairing bilateral relations would not be easy. Although some of Trump's campaign remarks will have pleased Moscow, the lack of clarity on what he will do in office means that a rapid 'reset' is not in sight. Moscow aspires to being treated as an equal superpower with its own spheres of interest, and has deployed military power and strong rhetoric to win this. The result is a deteriorating relationship with Western governments.


Subject Recent developments in Japanese foreign policy. Significance This month has seen a flurry of high-level diplomatic activity. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has visited Germany, France, Italy, Belgium and the United Kingdom and Russia. Over the same period, Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida visited China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos and Vietnam. Impacts Except for Washington, G7 governments have more interest in economic ties with Beijing than in Tokyo's concerns about territorial issues. Japan's willingness to engage Russia may draw the West's ire in due course. The process of relocating the Futenma airbase may drag on for another decade. TPP ratification will be slower than Abe wanted, but US politics is the greatest obstacle. A weakened South Korean administration could find itself pushed into a more hostile approach to Tokyo.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document