New Venezuela talks bring hope of gradual progress

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Regime Change ◽  
Economic Sanctions ◽  
Electoral Participation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Partisan Media

Significance Norwegian-led dialogue efforts are an opportunity for Maduro and Guaido to navigate the lifting of devastating US economic sanctions and a long-term electoral opening. Impacts Broader involvement including civil society groups would help overcome acute polarity and improve ‘buy in’ to any potential agreement. The new US government will strengthen Venezuelan opposition groups that emphasise electoral participation over abstention and regime change. Norway will aim to shield the talks from the leaks, irreconcilable demands and partisan media mobilisation that eroded previous processes.

Nicaragua protests signal dialogue, not regime change

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Regime Change ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Social ◽  
Social Security Reforms ◽  
Economic Slowdown

Significance The protests pose the greatest threat to President Daniel Ortega since he took power in 2007. The president’s eventual withdrawal of the social security reforms that had sparked the unrest has, instead of restoring order, emboldened protesters, who are now pushing for further political concessions and have called for a mass anti-government demonstration to be held tomorrow. Impacts Businesses may postpone investment decisions until after the national dialogue, posing a risk of economic slowdown. Damage to the reputation of the security forces threatens to foster long-term resentment, undermining law enforcement. The protests may spur anti-corruption protests in other parts of the region, such as Guatemala.

Virus will divert but not derail gender rights fight

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Sexual Harassment ◽  
Sexual Violence ◽  
Gender Equality ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Equal Pay ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cultural Shifts

Subject Gender rights movements. Significance Since 2017, a new wave of the fight for gender equality has spread globally as activists share tactics and build transnational networks through social media. From the online #MeToo Movement to massive women’s strikes, demands to end sexual harassment and violence are already leading to cultural shifts and a barrage of new legislation. Despite backlash, and disruption due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the global gender rights movement will give rise to significant legal, social and political change. Impacts Governments globally will see greater civil society pressure to pass new legislation on sexual violence and harassment. Companies will be required to abide by new regulations governing harassment and equal pay in a growing number of countries. COVID-19 will temporarily slow organising efforts, but in the long term bring new allies to the movement.

Rising Zimbabwean authoritarianism will dent Mnangagwa

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
The Uk

Significance A violent clampdown on the opposition and civil society groups in January and February prompted the US government to renew sanctions, while the UK government has put cooperation with Harare on hold. Impacts Despite regional unease at ZANU-PF’s approach, the opposition will fail to gain neighbouring countries’ official backing. The central bank will struggle to secure enough market confidence in a new de-facto local currency. Internal factionalisation within ZANU-PF could worsen between pro- and anti-Western factions.

Zimbabwean government clampdown could escalate

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Public Services ◽  
Pension Funds ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Potential Increase ◽  
To Come

Significance This was the second major protest banned by the authorities in recent days, amid deepening public dissatisfaction with the government's handling of the economy. As fears grow among the ruling ZANU-PF government of a popular uprising, the security forces are intensifying a clampdown on opposition and civil society figures. Impacts Recent violence will probably delay, but not necessarily scupper plans for a new IMF funding package over the medium-to-long term. A potential increase in public-sector wages has unnerved the IMF amid fears over renewed fiscal slippages. A recent scandal over the looting of pension funds by officials has undermined already fragile confidence in government. The current public services crisis will likely worsen over the short term, as strikes by workers increase. Opposition calls for a transitional government are likely to come to naught over the short term amid entrenched ZANU-PF resistance.

US inversion risk may mean long-term political trouble

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Electoral College ◽  
Content Type ◽  
College System ◽  
White Voters ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
College Educated

Subject US political enfranchisement and voter behaviour. Significance With eleven months until the 2020 federal elections, the Democratic Party celebrated some significant victories last month in elections in Virginia, Kentucky and Louisiana, reflecting gains among college-educated white voters in suburbs and perhaps foreshadowing Democratic gains next year. At the same time, the candidate field for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination is starting to narrow. The Democrats want to win back the US presidency, but recent polling suggests that Republican President Donald Trump maintains an advantage in the Electoral College system that determines who becomes president. Impacts Trump will focus on winning states with many Electoral College votes, such as Pennsylvania and Florida. Trump’s Democratic opponent will target the same states and will try to flip others to the Democrats. Voters’ faith in the electoral system will be eroded if there is further evidence of foreign interference efforts. Concerns about democracy at home could make promoting democracy overseas harder for the US government. Greater polarisation could increase the risk of direction action, protests and violence.

Hong Kong media will become more constrained

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Political Violence ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lone Wolf ◽  
Mainstream Media ◽  
News Source ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government

Significance The first sentencing on July 30 established the principle that language alone can be punished as illegal if interpreted as secessionist. The law's most dramatic use so far has been against the senior leadership of Apple Daily, Hong Kong's most widely read tabloid and one of the most outspoken critics of its government. Impacts Public distrust of the mainstream media could fuel greater reliance on social media as a news source, deepening political polarisation. In the long term, narrowing the range of views expressed in the mainstream media could subtly influence public opinion in Beijing's favour. There is a small risk of lone-wolf or small-scale, organised political violence against government targets. The US government may put more pressure on US firms and institutions to scale back their presence in Hong Kong. US companies (others less so) may reduce their presence in Hong Kong to avoid mutually exclusive legal responsibilities around sanctions.

Assembly may bring Venezuela crisis to a head

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Sanctions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
International Pressure ◽  
Constituent Assembly ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Heads Of State ◽  
Foreign Ministers

Significance On July 31 the US government announced sanctions against President Nicolas Maduro, one of only four heads of state to face a US travel ban and asset freeze. Maduro is claiming an implausible turnout of 8.1 million voters in the elections for 545 delegates to the Constituent Assembly. The vote went ahead amid violent opposition protests and despite strong international pressure to reverse the presidential initiative. Impacts US threats of "swift economic sanctions" may follow if the new Constituent Assembly dissolves the National Assembly. Peru has convened a meeting of regional foreign ministers for August 8 to discuss responses to the Venezuelan crisis. The Constituent Assembly is likely to begin meeting this week.

New law will boost Indonesian mining in the long term

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Mining Industry ◽  
Environmental Groups ◽  
Mining Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Society Organisations ◽  
Mining Law

Subject New mining law in Indonesia. Significance Parliament last month passed revisions to a 2009 mining law. The new legislation considerably eases restrictions on the size of mining operations and allows automatic permit extensions for operators of up to 20 years. However, activists fear it does not do enough to ensure miners protect the environment. Impacts Opposition to the legislation from environmental groups and other civil society organisations will intensify. Watchdogs will push for more accountability and transparency in the mining industry. Mine operators will gradually expand their operations.

Pandemic will test not topple authoritarian leaders

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Regime Change ◽  
International Community ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile

Significance Yet poor handling of the pandemic, combined with the prolonged economic downturn that has come in its wake, is testing their grip in states ranging from Belarus to Thailand and Zimbabwe. Impacts High-profile opposition and civil society mobilisation will draw greater attention to the repressive tactics of authoritarian states. The stress of the pandemic and divisions within the international community militate against foreign interventions for regime change. Prolonged economic slumps in large parts of Africa and Asia will fuel public anger against incompetent autocrats.

Sanctions of the USA and the Policy of Bank of Russia:double Blow to the National Economy

2014 ◽  
pp. 13-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Glazyev
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Economic Sanctions ◽  
Capital Flight ◽  
Practical Advice ◽  
The Us ◽  
Monetary Authorities ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Simultaneous Adoption ◽  
The Eu

This article examines fundamental questions of monetary policy in the context of challenges to the national security of Russia in connection with the imposition of economic sanctions by the US and the EU. It is proved that the policy of the Russian monetary authorities, particularly the Central Bank, artificially limiting the money supply in the domestic market and pandering to the export of capital, compounds the effects of economic sanctions and plunges the economy into depression. The article presents practical advice on the transition from external to domestic sources of long-term credit with the simultaneous adoption of measures to prevent capital flight.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document