Central Europe's slow rate rises will aim at growth

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Slow Rate ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Equity Funds ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Eu

Significance The MNB’s first rate rise in a decade responds to headline inflation rising to the highest rate in the EU. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) decision to bring forward raising interest rates to 2023 is putting emerging market (EM) assets under increasing strain and heaping pressure on Central Europe’s central banks to begin tightening. Impacts Capital markets’ ‘hunt for yield’ will bolster EM bond and equity funds despite concerns about the Fed’s withdrawal of stimulus. The vast majority of investors are behaving as if the current surge in inflation will prove transitory. A sharp deterioration in sentiment may follow if price pressures last longer than expected. Brent crude’s rise to its highest level since October 2018, despite the recent rally in the US dollar, will fuel inflationary pressures.

Normalisation threatens Emerging Europe’s bond markets

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Asset Purchases ◽  
Investment Grade

Subject The risks to Emerging Europe’s bond markets from the removal of monetary stimulus. Significance The IMF has warned that the withdrawal of monetary stimulus by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to reduce capital inflows into emerging market (EM) economies. Emerging Europe is particularly vulnerable, thanks to the additional risks posed by the reduction of asset purchases by the ECB. Corporate bonds are most at risk because of the rapid compression in spreads on sub-investment grade debt, at their lowest levels since the financial crisis. Impacts Hawkish signals from central banks and US tax cuts are taking the benchmark ten-year US Treasury yield to its highest level since mid-March. However, dollar weakness will ease some of the strain on EM currencies and local bonds. With low core euro-area inflation reducing pressure to end QE, the ECB is unlikely to raise interest rates before 2019.

Foreign holdings of EM debt are a key global risk

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Foreign Investor ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Global Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China And India ◽  
China’S Economy

Subject Risks surrounding increased foreign participation in EM bond markets. Significance The rise in the dollar in anticipation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start hiking interest rates next month is putting emerging market (EM) currencies under renewed strain. This stress is testing the resilience of EM bond markets, many of which, such as Malaysia and Indonesia, have high levels of foreign investor participation, or, like China and India, are seeking to attract more. Impacts Monetary policy divergence between the Fed and other leading central banks will put further upward pressure on the dollar. A strengthening dollar will extend oil's 6.6% price drop since November 3, undermining sentiment towards EMs. The composition of foreign holdings (institutional money versus flightier capital) will be key to gauging the vulnerability of EM debt. The largest source of vulnerability in EMs will remain the threat of a harder-than-expected landing for China's economy.

Turkey’s new economic team acts to restore credibility

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Late Stage ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
The Us ◽  
Multiple Interest ◽  
The Eu

Significance In one of the most significant changes in direction in a major emerging market (EM) in recent years, newly appointed TCMB Governor Naci Agbal has tightened monetary policy dramatically while abandoning a convoluted system of multiple interest rates. With another technocrat, Lufti Elvan, appointed finance minister, monetary policy could be returning to normality. Impacts A Biden administration is expected to prove unaccommodating towards Turkey, especially given its purchase of a Russian air defence system. This may be leading Erdogan to extend feelers to the EU, recently promising reforms and insisting Turkey is an “inseparable” part of Europe. Anti-coronavirus vaccines’ late-stage trial results are encouraging market optimism, with the US stock market hitting a record this month.

ECB may spark rate rises in Central-Eastern Europe

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
The Us ◽  
Equity Funds ◽  
Central Eastern

Significance Inflation rates are rising sharply across Central-Eastern Europe (CEE), mainly thanks to a recovery in commodity prices. A flurry of stronger-than-expected economic data is fuelling speculation in financial markets about the timing of increases in interest rates across the CEE region. Forward markets are already pricing in rate hikes in Romania and Poland within the next twelve months. Impacts Traders are now expecting the US Federal Reserve to achieve its goal of hiking interest rates three times this year. Emerging-market bond and equity funds are enjoying a surge in inflows, market sentiment having improved sharply after the US election. Mounting uncertainty regarding France’s presidential election next month is having a negligible impact on euro-area government bond markets.

Mixed bond market moves raise policy-tightening risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Industrial Firms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Equity Funds

Significance Its two-year equivalent, which is more sensitive to US monetary policy, has risen faster, as expectations have increased that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise rates at least twice more this year. The gap between ten- and two-year yields is the narrowest since 2007, suggesting that bond markets expect aggressive short-term policy tightening to dampen growth and inflation in the longer term. Impacts The VIX Index, which anticipates S&P 500 equity volatility, is settling near its three-year average of 15, having touched 50 in February. The dollar has risen by nearly 2% since April 16 despite bearish bets continuing -- suggesting that its slump may have run its course. The ‘search for yield’ will draw investors to emerging market bond and equity funds; 2018 inflows so far are nearing 73 billion dollars. The US yield curve is close to inversion, traditionally signposting recession, but the backdrop of ultra-low rates obscures the outlook. US industrial firms including Caterpillar report solid first-quarter earnings but warn of already teaching a peak, worrying investors.

Attention will turn to policy scope to fight recession

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Equity Funds ◽  
Global Equity Markets

Significance The dovish U-turns by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the ECB, which were withdrawing monetary stimulus as recently as end-2018, are accentuating concerns that the leading central banks lack the firepower to fight the next recession. Creating confusion, global equity markets are surging but bond markets are growing more pessimistic. Impacts The Chinese equity market is surging as investors anticipate some form of US-China trade deal, but any boost is likely to be temporary. US equities have rebounded this year, but the outflows from US equity funds that began in October will continue and may rise amid anxiety. Chinese growth was slowing even before the tariffs and worries are rising that this, more than trade, will increasingly hit world growth.

Investors may be underpricing more US Fed tightening

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Equity Funds ◽  
Global Growth

Subject Financial markets. Significance The US stock market has rallied by 11.8% this year, buoyed by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) executing a dovish policy reversal in late January. Slower global growth prompted the turnaround, but at the same time, US economic activity still has momentum. Reflecting the uncertainty, a week ago futures investors saw a 20.0% chance of the Fed's next move being a rate cut and a 3.5% chance of a hike by January 2020. Expectations have since shifted, to a 7.0% chance of a cut and a 6.9% chance of a hike, respectively. Impacts The dollar is 1% higher since the Fed turnaround at end-January; much larger concerns about Europe than US activity will keep it rising. Emerging market (EM) bond and equity funds are attracting consistently high inflows, but sharply lower Chinese growth would be contagious. The Brent oil price has risen more than 20% this year, but weaker global growth will limit further gains.

The international strength of the euro will grow

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Strategic Autonomy ◽  
Geopolitical Risks ◽  
The Eu

Significance The proposals identified areas where the euro could potentially become more dominant, such as the issuance of green bonds, digital currencies, and international trade in raw materials and energy. Ambitions to enhance the international leverage of the euro are being driven by the aim to strengthen EU strategic autonomy amid rising geopolitical risks. Impacts Developing its digital finance sector would be an opportunity for the EU to enhance its strategic autonomy in financial services. Challenging the US dollar would require the euro-area to rebalance its economy away from foreign to domestic demand. Member state division will prevent the economic reconfiguration the euro-area needed to make the euro a truly global currency.

Leading central banks mould investor sentiment

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Euro Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Country Specific

Significance In the worst start to a year for US equities since 2008, the benchmark S&P 500 index fell 0.7% during the week ending January 10. December's employment report showed US non-farm payrolls rising by a robust 252,000, but average hourly earnings declined, accentuating deflationary fears. The dollar continued to strengthen against the euro on concerns about a possible euro crisis over Greece and the introduction of sovereign QE by the ECB. With the US Federal Reserve preparing to raise rates, investor sentiment remains fragile. Impacts The tug-of-war between central bank largesse and country-specific, geopolitical and economic risks will become more intense. Markets will focus on renewed fears of 'Grexit' and on concerns about German opposition to an ECB sovereign QE programme. The relentless oil prices slide, exacerbated by the dollar's strength, will put further strain on EM assets. The ruble is likely to weaken further, increasing the scope for contagion to other developing economies.

ECB's QE will buoy EM bond markets

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Large Current

Subject Opposite forces are shaping investor sentiment towards EM assets. Significance Investor sentiment towards emerging market (EM) assets is being shaped by the conflicting forces of a strong dollar and the launch of a sovereign quantitative easing (QE) programme by the ECB. While the latter is likely to encourage investment into higher-yielding assets, such as EM debt, the former will keep the currencies of developing economies under strain, particularly those most sensitive to a rise in US interest rates due to heavier reliance on capital inflows to finance large current account deficits, such as Turkey and South Africa. Impacts EM bonds will benefit from ECB-related inflows, while the strength of the dollar will keep local currencies under strain. Higher-yielding EMs will benefit the most from the ECB's bond-buying scheme since they provide the greatest scope for 'carry trades'. The collapse in oil prices is forcing EM central banks to turn increasingly dovish, putting further strain on local currencies.

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