US shift boosts hopes of Venezuela dialogue progress

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Positive Outcome ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Current Correlation ◽  
Dialogue Process ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Made In

Significance Optimism is building that there will be progress in dialogue efforts between President Nicolas Maduro's government and US-recognised ‘interim president’ Juan Guaido. The current correlation of domestic and international interests is favourable to a breakthrough, but significant obstacles and spoilers will need to be navigated. Impacts Delegations from the government and opposition will maintain a schedule of international engagements linked to the dialogue process. Factionalism within both the ruling party and the opposition will surface over concessions made in negotiations. A positive outcome will require authoritative positioning by Maduro and Guaido to ensure they can carry their respective blocks with them.

New party could shift Zimbabwe's political balance

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Food Aid ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
Political Patronage ◽  
People First ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Political outlook in Zimbabwe. Significance On February 17, former Vice President Joice Mujuru formally launched a new party -- Zimbabwe People First (ZPF) -- to contest the 2018 election. Usually, such announcements are met with scepticism, given the failure of past attempts to unseat President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party. However, unprecedented divisions within the ruling party mean ZPF may pose a real electoral challenge. Impacts The government's wholesale takeover of the Marange diamond fields could provide fresh opportunities for political patronage. New rules imposing taxes on around 40 imported basic foods means that the government could benefit financially from emergency food aid. Several G40 members could benefit from Zhuwao's stricter indigenisation rules, which bans foreign investment in 'protected' sectors. Such regulation, together with the drought and weak commodity prices, means GDP growth could fail to reach the World Bank's 1.5% forecast. Mugabe's lavish birthday celebrations will fuel public anger -- given the current food crisis -- possibly boosting opposition support.

Uganda former PM aspirant will provoke backlash

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Internal Disruption ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Police Forces

Subject Pre-election politics in Uganda. Significance The long-expected announcement on June 15 by sacked Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi that he will run for president will bring bitter tensions between him and President Yoweri Museveni out into the open. It is highly unlikely to threaten the latter's 30-year rule but may provoke internal disruption within the ruling party as Museveni makes an example of internal dissent. Impacts Loyalty among the military and police forces will remain central to Museveni's power. Museveni effectively distances himself from graft scandals, while Mbabazi's reputation remains tarnished by several high-profile cases. Oil firms could see some benefits, if Museveni decides to assure them of his solid hold on power. The government was already likely to unleash inflation-inducing spending during the election, but Mbabazi's campaign increases this risk.

Nigeria’s president will struggle to contain threats

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Niger Delta ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Stagnation ◽  
Presidential Succession ◽  
Inner Circle ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance The bombing is the latest setback for the government. Recent military gains against Boko Haram and increasing oil production in the Niger Delta have failed to offset the distinct governance problems facing Abuja. Amid a deepening economic crisis, President Muhammadu Buhari is facing challenges within the ruling alliance and emergent political threats nationwide. Impacts Presidential succession manoeuvring could undermine unity, leading to ruling party infighting and a possible contested nomination process. Key members of Buhari’s inner circle will come under pressure to resign as new scandals emerge. Populist alternatives to the president will surface, as citizens grow frustrated with economic stagnation and high prices.

Correa may yet win fourth term in Ecuador

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Media Freedom ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electoral Campaigns ◽  
Wealth Redistribution ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Successive Term ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Pre-election politics in Ecuador. Significance Deteriorating economic conditions, declining public spending and falling support for the government have provided opposition forces with a favourable climate to make gains in advance of next year's general elections. However, with little over eight months before voters are scheduled to go to the polls, the opposition is fragmented and the main challengers are uncertain. The political landscape is further complicated by uncertainty over who will stand for the ruling party. While President Rafael Correa has repeatedly stated that he will not compete, he may yet seek election for a fourth successive term. Impacts Constitutional reform, media freedom, security and tax reductions will be the focus of electoral campaigns from the right and centre. Preventing large-scale mining, environmentalism, creating a plurinational state and wealth redistribution will be central to the left. The full list of parties and candidates authorised to compete in the elections will not be known until the year-end.

Zimbabwe's opposition will bank on electoral alliance

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Fall Armyworm ◽  
International Financial Institutions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance With the country mired in a deepening economic crisis and the ruling party engaging in debilitating succession struggles, opposition parties are debating whether they can exploit the government's fiscal woes to contest forthcoming by-elections and national polls or to boycott elections in part or altogether. Impacts A fall armyworm outbreak is likely to devastate crops nationwide, prompting a food security crisis. The government will likely resist pressure from international financial institutions to curb public expenditure ahead of the 2018 elections. Increased human rights abuses by the authorities would prompt international condemnation and possible resumption of broader EU sanctions.

Donor commitments could kickstart Madagascar recovery

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Credit Facility ◽  
The Government ◽  
Made In ◽  
Governance Reforms

Significance The aim was to build on progress made in July when the government secured a three-year IMF Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme. The country’s central bank reported that donors committed to over 6.4 billion dollars in financial support, with subsequent estimates as high as 10 billion dollars. Impacts Passing budgetary measures will prove difficult due to a thin parliamentary majority. The government will likely prioritise EU reform and infrastructure demands -- Brussels has pledged 800 million euros over four years. Failure to implement governance reforms could lead to a suspension of IMF funding.

India’s sexual violence will cost ruling party support

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Judicial Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sexual Crimes ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Civil Society Organisations ◽  
Parliamentary Debate ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Government ◽  
Party Support ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Sexial violence in India. Significance At a recent parliamentary debate over a no-confidence motion against the government, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) began its defence by focusing on its achievements in protecting women. India has seen a recent surge in reports of high-profile, violent sexual crimes. Modi will be seeking a second term in the general election due in early 2019. Impacts Modi will face protests over India’s treatment of women especially during his trips to Western countries. Civil society organisations will intensify calls for better training and scrutiny of police. Human rights groups will urge India to reject the death penalty, encouraging judicial reform instead.

Malawi election ruling will have far-reaching impacts

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
International Donors ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance The Court's heavy criticism of the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) means that changes of both personnel and structure are likely. The judgement has also given momentum to the opposition and talks about forging a coalition -- which would have comprehensively defeated the ruling party had it been in place for the original election -- have already begun. Impacts Significant energy and resources will be diverted to running a fresh election, deflecting attention away from pressing development concerns. The ruling is widely seen to have validated post-election popular protests and will encourage future mass mobilisation over controversies. The government will rely heavily on international donors to meet the cost of holding new elections given difficulties funding the 2019 poll. If the opposition can forge an effective coalition, a transfer of power is highly likely. The Kenyan and now Malawian legal precedents may embolden electoral courts elsewhere on the continent, especially in more democratic states.

Ruling party will look inwards ahead of Burundi polls

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dynamics ◽  
Fourth Term ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Political dynamics ahead of 2020 elections. Significance The government has launched talks with CNARED, a forum of opposition parties, to negotiate the return of its exiled leaders ahead of the 2020 presidential elections. President Pierre Nkurunziza, who has said he will not run for a fourth term, appears to be cautiously reaching out to the opposition in an effort to ease his regime’s diplomatic isolation and deepening economic crisis. Impacts The 2020 elections will likely see continued heavy human rights violations and restrictions on the political space. CNARED’s mooted return might increase tensions, rights violations and repression, especially once they try to campaign outside Bujumbura. Burundi’s crisis weighs heavily on regional security, especially in Congo’s South Kivu Province; the elections might exacerbate this.

Pandemic frustrations will drive Panama discontent

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Poverty Line ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Panama City ◽  
Travel And Tourism ◽  
Support Measures ◽  
Economic Support ◽  
The Government ◽  
Made In

Significance The COVID-19 crisis has prompted a sharp decline in revenues. The fiscal crunch and related austerity measures are driving mounting popular dissatisfaction with the government, expressed through protests in Panama City in mid-March. Impacts Rising unemployment will push more families back below the poverty line, reversing gains made in this area over recent years. Travel and tourism will remain muted over much of 2021 until most major source markets are vaccinated. Business closures are likely to increase when economic support measures are withdrawn, probably later in 2021.

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