UK economy should recover fully by end of 2021

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Light Touch ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu ◽  
The Imf

Significance The revised forecast reflects the economy’s resilience to the re-imposition of COVID-19 restrictions during January and April this year. The UK economy is expected to return to its pre-pandemic level by the end of 2021, but the IMF is more cautious about the economy’s medium- to long-term prospects. Impacts Higher Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts in October could facilitate greater spending capacity in the 2022 budget. A further deterioration in tensions over Northern Ireland in the autumn would risk damaging EU-UK trade relations. UK imports from the EU will face more disruption once the government ends its temporary light-touch approach to imports, in 2022.

Brexit impact on UK trade will be clearer after COVID

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Capital Investments ◽  
Light Touch ◽  
Services Trade ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Significance Brexit's direct impacts on goods trade are beginning to emerge. In sectors that rely on complex supply chains or are characterised by large capital investments, the full impacts will take some years to materialise. COVID-19 related restrictions on travel have obscured the effects of Brexit on services trade. Impacts Persistent UK-EU tension could force some UK firms to stop trading with the EU or permanently relocate to Europe. Lack of trust between London and Brussels will prevent closer trade cooperation over the coming years. UK imports will face more disruption once the government ends its temporary light-touch approach to imports, probably after 2021. Tension over the Northern Ireland protocol threatens to trigger social unrest in Northern Ireland over the next few months.

Northern Irish issue threatens EU-UK trade relations

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
International Law ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Northern Irish ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Significance The manner of the UK move is not only damaging for the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP), but also has the potential to affect the wider EU-UK trading relationship. Impacts Low levels of trust will make it difficult for the EU and UK teams to find practical solutions to the NIP’s implementation. A further deterioration in EU-UK relations over the NIP could threaten the ratification of the EU-UK trade deal in the European Parliament. The United Kingdom’s threats to break international law threaten to damage its credibility among foreign and international actors.

UK government is preparing for an early election

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Significance Johnson's cabinet overhaul is the largest in decades, replacing 17 cabinet ministers from the previous government mostly with individuals who support Johnson’s hard-line stance on Brexit. Impacts Brussels could offer London a ‘Northern Ireland only’ backstop, but this will be rejected by the UK government. The government will likely pass legislation to protect EU citizens’ rights in the United Kingdom if there is a no-deal Brexit. The EU will only grant another extension if a deal is almost agreed, or if there is a UK general election or second Brexit referendum.

The Irish Border

2020 ◽  
pp. 148-168
Author(s):  
Colin Harvey
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Violent Conflict ◽  
Controversial Issue ◽  
Long Term Consequences ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

This chapter focuses on Northern Ireland, a jurisdiction within the UK acutely affected by the nature of the Brexit debate and the process. It is a contested region that is divided along ethno-national lines and still emerging from a violent conflict. Removing Northern Ireland from the EU against its wishes will have long-term consequences that remain difficult to predict. One result is a more intense discussion of the region’s place within the UK, with Irish reunification acknowledged to be a way to return to the EU. The chapter then analyses the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland attached to the Withdrawal Agreement which regulates the single most controversial issue in the Brexit process: namely, the Irish border question. It looks at the difficulties connected to the fragile peace process in Northern Ireland and explains the creative solution that was ultimately agreed in the withdrawal treaty to prevent the return of a hard border in the island of Ireland through regulatory alignment, while also indicating the challenges that the Protocol creates.

Geospatial data in the UK

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suzanne Jozefowicz ◽  
Merlin Stone ◽  
Eleni Aravopoulou
Keyword(s):  
Western Country ◽  
Geospatial Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Potential Benefits ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explain the rise of geospatial data, its importance for business and some of the problems associated with its development and use. Design/methodology/approach The paper reviews a certain amount of previously published literature but is based mainly on analysis of the very large number of responses to a consultation paper on geospatial data published by the UK Government. Findings The findings are that while there is strong appreciation of the potential benefits of using geospatial data, there are many barriers to the development, sharing and use of geospatial data, ranging from problems of incompatibility in data definitions and systems to regulatory issues. The implication for governments and for providers and users of geospatial data relates to the need to take a long-term approach to planning in resolving the issues identified. Research limitations/implications The research findings are limited to the UK, but similar findings would be likely in any other large Western country. Practical implications This paper confirms the need for a strong and coherent approach to the planning of geospatial data and systems for the establishment of a clear basis for the different parties to work together and the need to clearly separate the roles of the government in establishing frameworks and standards and the role of the private sector in developing applications and solutions. Social implications Society is increasingly dependent on the use of geospatial data, in improving living standards and dealing with social problems. The recommendations identified in this paper, if followed, will facilitate these improvements. Originality/value The value of this paper is the tight synthesis that it provides of a wide ranging and complex range of responses to the UK Government consultation and placing these responses in the wider context of the development of geospatial data.

Spain’s budget majority promises political stability

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Significance The minority Socialist Party (PSOE) - Unidas Podemos (UP) government needed the support of several left-wing and pro-independence parties to get the budget through. Its approval makes early elections unlikely and gives the government a better chance to shape the COVID-19 economic recovery and implement some of its 2019 electoral pledges. Impacts Spain’s poor record in absorbing EU funds suggests it will struggle to make the most of the EU recovery fund. The weakening of the UK currency will hurt Spanish exports to the United Kingdom, especially with fewer UK tourists coming to Spain. Greater political stability will enable Spain to pursue a more assertive foreign policy.

Poland-EU constitutional crisis will not end soon

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
European Commission ◽  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Rule Of Law ◽  
Constitutional Tribunal ◽  
The Government ◽  
Polish Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject European Commission concerns about the rule of law in Poland. Significance The Commission has sent a formal Opinion to the Polish government, activating the first stage in the EU's 'Rule of Law Framework'. It expresses concerns about respect for the rule of law in Poland (a fundamental founding value of the EU), and in particular about the Polish government's handling of the crisis over the Constitutional Tribunal (TK, for Trybunał Konstytucyjny) Impacts Poland's EU position is likely to suffer as a result of the dispute, making it more difficult for it to achieve other political goals. Polish politics will remain unsettled and polarised, with the opposition using the Commission's Opinion to challenge the government. Legal uncertainty may translate into lower investment by individuals and enterprises dampening economic growth in the medium-to-long term.

International carbon transition debates to intensify

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Coal Production ◽  
International Labour Organisation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Carbon Neutrality ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject Carbon transitions. Significance The EU in May failed to reach an agreement on how to achieve a long-term strategy on reducing carbon emissions. One of the issues underlying the persistent differences among member states was the question of how to achieve a ‘just transition’. This is becoming an increasingly significant element of national and international debates on tackling climate change. Impacts The International Labour Organisation believes a transition limiting heat rises to 2 degrees by 2030 would create 24 million jobs globally. Global coal production may stabilise as reductions in developed economies are offset by increases in Asia. The UK Treasury estimates that achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 will cost 1 trillion pounds (1.26 trillion dollars).

scholarly journals A case of tightrope walking

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 238-250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donna Bramwell ◽  
Caroline Sanders ◽  
Anne Rogers
Keyword(s):  
Government Employees ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North West ◽  
Workplace Engagement ◽  
The North ◽  
Depth Study ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Depth Interviews

Purpose – Given that current policy in the UK is focused on encouraging individuals with long-term health conditions (LTCs) to work wherever possible, the purpose of this paper is to explore employer’s and manager’s perspectives of supporting those with LTCs as any successful workplace engagement will largely be influenced by their readiness to be supportive. Design/methodology/approach – In total, 40 semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with employers’ and managers’ from a range of organisations in the north-west of England during the period March 2011 to January 2012. Comparative analysis of the data was guided and informed by grounded theory principles. Findings – All bar one participant typified their role as one of a difficult “balancing” act of additional and often incompatible demands, pressures and feelings. It was evident that coping with this ambivalent situation incurred an emotional consequence for participants. Practical implications – Employers’ and managers’ response to ambivalent feelings may serve to undermine their capacity to translate supportive intentions into tangible action and are thus reflected in employee’s perceptions of unsupportive relations. Developing an intervention to raise awareness of the potential for this situation and subsequent impact on the return to work process would be beneficial for all stakeholders – the government, employees and employers alike. Originality/value – This in-depth study gives voice to employers and managers whose experiences and perceptions of supporting people with LTCs is largely unknown and empirically under-researched. Findings add to the wealth of research from the employee perspective to provide a more nuanced picture of the workplace for those working with and/or supporting those with LTCs.

The outlook for UK-EU relations is poor

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Institutional Arrangements ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Future ◽  
Economic Relationship ◽  
The Eu

Significance They are intended to set the framework for the future economic relationship between the United Kingdom and the EU. However, they have become a source of deep political division and mistrust, exacerbating concerns about the future of their political and economic relationship. Impacts A further deterioration in UK-EU trade relations would threaten to undermine peace and stability in Northern Ireland. Negative trade news is unlikely to shift opinions significantly on Brexit or support for Prime Minister Boris Johnson. UK hostility towards defence and security cooperation underpinned by EU institutional arrangements will remain strong.

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