French far-right rivalry favours Macron’s election bid

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Election Campaign ◽  
Illegal Migration ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
Media Channels ◽  
Regional Elections

Significance Zemmour has prominence through various media channels and his attacks on established political leaders have already begun. He principally threatens National Rally (NR) leader Marine Le Pen: she has failed to consolidate the far-right vote and her party performed poorly in June’s regional elections. Impacts Zemmour’s candidacy would put pressure on Le Pen to adopt a more hard-right election campaign. A wave of illegal migration or Islamist attack would provide Zemmour with an opportunity to consolidate support. Despite Zemmour’s intention to run for president, a second-round election run-off between Macron and Le Pen is the most likely outcome.

France’s conservatives face a crucial election vote

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Immigration Policy ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Marine Le Pen

Significance The main frontrunners are the president of the Hauts-de-France region, Xavier Bertrand, Ile-de-France regional head Valerie Pecresse and Michel Barnier, formerly the EU's chief Brexit negotiator. Barnier is the most popular candidate within LR, but Bertrand’s candidacy holds the most appeal when it comes to national support. Impacts Intensifying far-right rivalry is weakening the appeal of National Rally leader Marine Le Pen, to the benefit of Macron. Given the sensitivity of immigration ahead of the election, meaningful reform to EU immigration policy is unlikely before mid-2022. Amid the economic impact of COVID-19 in poorer regions, Macron will be under pressure to push for more flexible EU fiscal rules.

Economic prospects may boost Dutch mainstream parties

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Labour Party ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Healthcare Provision ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Absolute ◽  
The Eu

Subject Political and economic consequences of austerity in the Netherlands. Significance The popularity of the Dutch governing parties has declined steadily since they came into power in 2012. The absolute winner in the polls continues to be the far-right Freedom Party (PVV) led by Geert Wilders. There are signs, however, that mainstream parties are coming back into favour, thanks to a combination of promising economic prospects and relatively stable immigration levels. Impacts The EU, healthcare provision, integration and care of the elderly are likely to be key themes during the election campaign. Calls for a referendum on the withdrawal of the Netherlands from the EU -- a 'Nexit' -- are likely to intensify. Prospects for the Labour Party in the next election will depend on whom the party elects as its leader.

Disenchanted voters tilt strongly right in Brazil

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Off ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Electoral Performance ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Brazilian Politics

Subject The makeup of the new Congress. Significance The October 7 general elections reconfigured Brazilian politics. On the back of the success of presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro -- who fell just short of being elected in the first round --- the far right saw its representation expand significantly in a Congress where several established leaders lost seats they had held for decades. Gubernatorial candidates close to Bolsonaro also reached the run-off in key state races. Meanwhile, the traditional centre-right Social Democrats (PSDB) recorded their worst electoral performance since the party's foundation in the late 1980s. Impacts Bolsonaro's economically liberal credentials are unproven. Some of Bolsonaro's allies may oppose key economic reforms. A highly fragmented Congress will make governance challenging over time.

Divided vote raises pressure on Austria's government

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Economic Stagnation ◽  
The Government

Significance In the final run-off round that took place on May 22, Van der Bellen won 50.3% of the votes. His opponent Norbert Hofer, candidate of the populist far-right Freedom Party (FPOe), was narrowly defeated after postal ballots were counted, with 49.7%. Impacts Despite Hofer's defeat, the election was a success for the FPOe and will cement its position in the political mainstream. The success of the FPOe is likely to serve as inspiration for like-minded parties in France and Germany. Unless the government initiates overdue reforms to end political and economic stagnation, the FPOe may continue to grow in popularity.

Growth failure leaves governing French left vulnerable

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Growth Failure ◽  
National Front ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Regional Elections ◽  
The Eu

Significance The government's reforms have failed to deliver growth and lower employment as it had hoped. This leaves it poorly placed before December's regional elections and the 2017 presidential poll. Against a background of economic weakness, Europe's migrant crisis is boosting the National Front (FN) and its leader Marine Le Pen. Impacts Sarkozy may beat former Prime Minister Alain Juppe in the main centre-right party primary. Sarkozy may then beat President Francois Hollande in the first presidential round, and Marine Le Pen in the second. Under pressure from the right, the government is unlikely to accept further refugees beyond the proposed EU quota. France's continued economic debility will weaken its voice in the EU, and exacerbate strains with Germany.

Slovak centre-right must unite to win again in 2020

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Support ◽  
The Other ◽  
Far Right ◽  
New Parties ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Central European ◽  
Nationalist Government ◽  
Regional Elections

Subject The government’s poor showing in regional elections. Significance Elections in Slovakia’s eight regions on November 4 led to a surprise defeat for Prime Minister Robert Fico’s Direction-Social Democracy (Smer-SD) party, whose candidates lost four of the six governorships they previously held. A coalition of opposition centre-right parties, which normally only win the governorship in the most prosperous region, Bratislava, was victorious in five of the eight regions. This is the strongest indication yet that the current left-nationalist government could be replaced by such a coalition at the next parliamentary elections due in spring 2020. Impacts The current governing coalition will want to avoid early elections and serve a full four-year term until March 2020. Fico is likely to continue promoting generous social policies to increase his political support. With the defeat of the far-right, Slovakia will continue to diverge from the other Central European states. The weakening of Smer-SD and lack of trust shown by voters leaves considerable scope for new parties to succeed in future elections.

Somalia stumbles into another regional election morass

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Local Politics ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Regional Elections

Subject Regional elections and federal infighting in Somalia. Significance In mid-September, a regional reconciliation conference saw local political leaders and clans agree that the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) should take the lead in organising Galmudug’s upcoming regional elections. However, some major clans reportedly remain divided on the FGS’s role, while Galmudug President Ahmed Duale Guelle ‘Haaf’ on September 29 announced he was rescinding the FGS’s authority to manage the elections. The stage appears set for another contested regional election. Impacts Stakes for the regional presidency will be high following Qatar’s recent promise of a 174-million-dollar investment in Hobyo port. Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama’a’s multi-clan make-up will complicate efforts to form a regional parliament in which others demand clan balance. The FGS’s rejection of the Jubaland election results will worsen relations with those who believe it is unduly meddling in local politics.

Blunders could baulk Brazil's reform agenda

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Legal Battle

Significance The controversial move, followed by a still undefined legal battle as groups of victims of the 1964-85 dictatorship and their families sought to ban coup celebrations, added another to an already long list of controversies and political blunders by the far-right government which took office on January 1. These are not only quickly undermining its popularity, but also increasingly threatening its ability to achieve what it has defined as its top priority, passing an ambitious pensions reform. Impacts The left-leaning opposition is as yet failing to capitalise much on the government's serial blunders. The opposition will struggle to unite following clashes within the left and centre-left camp during the 2018 election campaign. The government risks continuing to fall into self-laid traps. Market jitters over the pension reform's prospects risk further falls in stock prices and the exchange rate.

Bolsonaro's Brazil Congress boost could be ephemeral

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Off

Significance The far-right president interfered directly in the process, approving spending measures and offering government jobs in exchange for parliamentarians’ support for his candidates, Deputy Arthur Lira and Senator Rodrigo Pacheco. Both were elected with comfortable margins. Impacts Bolsonaro has improved his appeal to many sectors in centre-right parties. Centre-right presidential hopefuls may struggle if Bolsonaro sustains wider support until mid-2022 -- though this is by no means guaranteed. In a new run-off with the centre-left in 2022, Bolsonaro would have the upper hand.

Left and far-right candidates will face Chile run-off

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Off

Headline CHILE: Left and far-right candidates will face run-off

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