France’s conservatives face a crucial election vote

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Immigration Policy ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Marine Le Pen

Significance The main frontrunners are the president of the Hauts-de-France region, Xavier Bertrand, Ile-de-France regional head Valerie Pecresse and Michel Barnier, formerly the EU's chief Brexit negotiator. Barnier is the most popular candidate within LR, but Bertrand’s candidacy holds the most appeal when it comes to national support. Impacts Intensifying far-right rivalry is weakening the appeal of National Rally leader Marine Le Pen, to the benefit of Macron. Given the sensitivity of immigration ahead of the election, meaningful reform to EU immigration policy is unlikely before mid-2022. Amid the economic impact of COVID-19 in poorer regions, Macron will be under pressure to push for more flexible EU fiscal rules.

French far-right rivalry favours Macron’s election bid

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Election Campaign ◽  
Illegal Migration ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
Media Channels ◽  
Regional Elections

Significance Zemmour has prominence through various media channels and his attacks on established political leaders have already begun. He principally threatens National Rally (NR) leader Marine Le Pen: she has failed to consolidate the far-right vote and her party performed poorly in June’s regional elections. Impacts Zemmour’s candidacy would put pressure on Le Pen to adopt a more hard-right election campaign. A wave of illegal migration or Islamist attack would provide Zemmour with an opportunity to consolidate support. Despite Zemmour’s intention to run for president, a second-round election run-off between Macron and Le Pen is the most likely outcome.

France’s Macron faces important election test

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Working Classes ◽  
Electoral Strategies ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
Tackle Climate Change ◽  
Regional Elections ◽  
The Eu

Significance Given the proximity to next year’s presidential election, President Emmanuel Macron and his main rival, National Rally (RN) leader Marine Le Pen, view the regional elections as an important opportunity to test electoral strategies and build momentum. Impacts Seeking re-election could force Macron to mute his backing for the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI). He will likely use the economic crisis to campaign for more flexible EU fiscal rules and further EU fiscal cooperation. Macron will intensify efforts to tackle climate change, but be careful to not anger the working classes or those living in rural areas.

Hollande may stand again but right look stronger

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
New Generation ◽  
Nicolas Sarkozy

Subject The political outlook after the 'departement' elections. Significance Following the March 2015 'departement' elections, four candidates are emerging as front-runners for the 2017 presidential election in their respective camps. After enjoying a political comeback in recent months and seeing internal Socialist Party (PS) and other left-wing opposition sidelined, President Francois Hollande will now almost certainly be able to run for re-election as the PS candidate. Former Prime Minister Alain Juppe and former President Nicolas Sarkozy are battling for control of the centre-right, divided principally by strategy towards immigration, Islam and the National Front (FN). FN leader Marine Le Pen has emerged from a decisive showdown with her father as an even stronger far-right candidate. The political landscape has shifted to the right. Impacts Having re-established some stability around his presidency, Hollande is now unlikely to risk it by pursuing economic reforms. Hollande could aggravate divisions among the Greens and on the far left by including Green ministers in the government in coming months. As potential presidents, both Juppe and Sarkozy appear willing to engage in substantial structural reform. Jean-Marie Le Pen's final political exit will allow a new generation to take definitive charge of the FN and complete its 'detoxification'.

Connectivity and training could increase EU equality

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Metropolitan Areas ◽  
Regional Inequality ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
Social Compact ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
Regional Economic Disparities ◽  
And Training

Subject Regional economic disparities in Europe. Significance Regional inequality threatens to be a catalyst for nationalist political answers. In 2016, a greater share of people in relatively low-growth UK regions voted for Brexit; in the 2017 French presidential election, regions experiencing higher unemployment had a greater tendency to vote for Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Rally party; and in the 2018 Italian parliamentary elections, a higher share of voters opted for populist parties in the poorer regions with greater joblessness. Impacts Fears of revolt have traditionally centred on perceived inter-personal inequality but inter-regional inequality will gain more attention. Wealthy voters in 'left-behind' regions are proving to be more populist then poorer voters in the economically dynamic metropolitan areas. Governments, employers and multilateral organisations will discuss 'social compact' options to boost regions and quell populist revolt.

Pecresse can challenge Macron in French election

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Significant Challenge ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
Council Presidency ◽  
The Right

Significance Pecresse's poll ratings received an immediate boost, to 17%, putting her on a par with far-right politician Marine Le Pen and behind President Emmanuel Macron on 24%. Polls suggests that, if she beats Le Pen in the first round, she would severely challenge or narrowly defeat Macron in the second round. Impacts France’s presidential election will be won and lost on the right; the left stands very little chance of progressing beyond the first round. Macron would likely face a much more significant challenge from Pecresse than the far-right candidates in the second round. To boost his re-election prospects, Macron will pursue a protectionist trade agenda during France’s EU Council Presidency.

Gap between France’s Macron and Le Pen is narrowing

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Support ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Law And Order ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Agreement ◽  
State Investment ◽  
The Eu

Significance Nevertheless, Le Pen remains the most serious threat to President Emmanuel Macron's hopes for re-election in 2022. She stands above him in some national polls, reflecting her success in broadening RN’s appeal, widespread anti-establishment sentiment and Macron’s unpopularity and mixed record on COVID-19. Impacts To revive the economy, Macron will likely campaign for reform of EU fiscal rules to enable greater levels of state investment. Further terrorist attacks or assaults on police would increase the salience of immigration and law and order ahead of the 2022 election. Ahead of the election, Macron will be reluctant to show public support for the EU-China investment agreement.

The impact of early failures on maintenance costs: an empirical study in Latin America

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodrigo E. Peimbert-García ◽  
Jesús Isaac Vázquez-Serrano ◽  
Jorge Limón-Robles
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Study ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Electric Utility ◽  
Opportunity Costs ◽  
Current Transformers ◽  
Maintenance Costs ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Early Failures ◽  
The Impact

PurposeLiterature shows that the economics of early failures in maintenance and electric utilities have not been deeply analyzed. This study aims to focus on quantifying the economic impact that early failures in current transformers have on total maintenance costs. The empirical study is conducted in a regional transmission division of an electric utility located in Mexico.Design/methodology/approachThe utility's database was accessed to collect 219 maintenance records. Clustering techniques were used to identify early failures from a bimodal distribution of failures. Confirmatory goodness-of-fit procedures followed the analysis, and finally, direct and opportunity costs were estimated by adapting the cost-of-quality (PAF) Model.FindingsAround 11% of all maintenance activities are triggered by early failures, and they account for up to US$2.2m during the eight-year period under study, which represents 16% of total maintenance costs. Additionally, opportunity costs represent close to two-thirds of the total costs due to early failures. This was obtained after finding and validating a clear-cut border of 3.5 months between early failures and the rest.Originality/valueFailures in energy grids and power transmission can have a large economic impact on the power industry and the society in general. Thus, the maintenance function in equipment such as current transformers is a crucial entry of the budget of any electric utility. This study is one of the very few that highlights the magnitude and importance of direct and opportunity costs derived from early failures.

Spain’s Sanchez faces tough battle after Madrid loss

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Party Competition ◽  
Main Issue ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Decline ◽  
Parliamentary Support

Significance The result led Pablo Iglesias, the founder of Unidas Podemos (UP), which is part of Sanchez’s minority left-wing government, to resign from politics. It also reinforced the national decline of the centre-right Ciudadanos (Cs) party, on which Sanchez has sometimes relied for parliamentary support. Impacts A fresh independence push in Catalonia would boost the electoral prospects of the PP and the far-right Vox party across Spain. Whether to cooperate with Vox in government could become the main issue of division within the PP. The return to traditional two-party competition between the PP and PSOE would increase the prospect of more stable governments.

Survival of Italy’s government rests on Draghi choice

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Pension System ◽  
General Election ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Growth Strategies ◽  
Content Type

Significance Plans to invest in key areas such as innovation, digitisation and climate change are already under way, as are plans to reform the pension system. Impacts EU fiscal rules will not return until 2023 at the earliest, enabling Draghi to focus on pro-growth strategies. If Draghi becomes president, finding an alternative government may be difficult as some parties will demand early elections. While the polls have narrowed, a right-wing government remains the most plausible outcome after the next general election.

Centre-right may oust Estonia’s far-right from office

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type

Headline ESTONIA: Centre-right may oust far-right from office

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