Thailand’s Prayut will push through obstacles

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recovery ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gubernatorial Election

Significance Prayut had the second-fewest votes cast for him and the most against him. The opposition probably did not expect to succeed with its censure motion, given the government’s comfortable house majority, but used the related debate to air discontent over matters such as the administration’s handling of the COVID-19 crisis. Impacts Next month’s reopening of certain parts of the country to international tourism should help support economic recovery. The upcoming Bangkok gubernatorial election will provide a fresh opportunity for the opposition to mobilise. Prayut will allow parliament to press on with plans to amend the constitution but frustrate attempts at substantive change.

Germany’s coalition faces division on several fronts

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Public Image ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Strong Emphasis ◽  
Investment Agreement ◽  
Policy Decision Making ◽  
The Eu

Significance The three parties successfully negotiated a coalition agreement with a strong emphasis on modernising Germany’s economy. Throughout the negotiations, the parties presented a public image of stability and harmony, yet several divisive issues will test the new government's stability and effectiveness. Impacts The composition of the new government will make it harder for Berlin to win approval for the EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement. Chancellor Olaf Scholz will seek to prioritise more unity at the EU level when it comes to foreign policy decision-making. The spread of the Omicron variant will slow economic recovery and potentially delay the transition to a greener economy.

Prospects for Turkey to end-2021

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Unemployment ◽  
First Time

Subject Prospects for Turkey to end-2021. Significance Deepening popular discontent, a growing opposition bloc and internal rivalries have put the ruling coalition on the back foot for the first time, but also made it more unpredictable. The economic recovery has continued, notwithstanding policy tightening, but the lira has been weak and inflation high. Unemployment is a significant concern.

Water woes will drag on economic recovery in Brazil

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type

Headline BRAZIL: Water woes will drag on economic recovery

Alberta's economic woes have political consequences

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Oil Sands ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Provincial Government ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Structural Unemployment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
Remaining Oil ◽  
Keystone Xl

Significance With steep reductions in public spending affecting education and social programmes, the budget signals an era of austerity in what had been Canada’s wealthiest province. One consequence is likely to be greater tension between the provincial government and the federal government in Ottawa. Impacts Major international funds will continue to divest from the oil sands sector, further depressing output as subsidies are cut. Remaining oil sands production will be increasingly automated, meaning that structural unemployment will persist. Ottawa’s refusal to contest US cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline has raised tensions with the UCP government in Edmonton. The national broad-based economic recovery expected this year will largely bypass Alberta.

Florida voters react to Biden's Caribbean policy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Relief ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
The State ◽  
Pivotal Role ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Family Connections ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The Government

Significance Many areas of the Caribbean have trade, investment and family connections with communities in Florida. As the state now plays a pivotal role in US electoral politics, crises in the region can take on added political importance for parts of Florida’s electorate. Impacts Forecasts of short-term economic recovery for Florida remain highly uncertain given the continuing impact of the pandemic. Clashing interests across the Caribbean may demand greater coordination of US policy than the government can currently offer. Healthcare and disaster relief capabilities within the state are severely overstretched and could be overwhelmed by a new crisis.

Multiple crises mean future instability in Madagascar

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Humanitarian Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Pressure ◽  
Inner Circle

Significance Rajoelina faces a wide array of challenges as he looks towards the final two years of his current presidential term. These include severe tensions within his inner circle, a substantial economic crisis, problems linked to his management of the COVID-19 pandemic, and a major humanitarian crisis. Impacts Increasing domestic and international pressure will lead to an opening of borders, possibly by October. The planned vaccine campaign will not prevent a new wave of COVID-19 infections. Economic recovery will be slow.

Skills shortage may hit Australia's post-COVID growth

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
General Election ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
General Increase ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Skills Shortage ◽  
Key Industries ◽  
Skills Shortages

Significance The closing of internal and external borders in response to COVID-19 has heightened a longstanding skills deficit in key industries, with implications for wage levels, prices and broader economic growth. However, a general increase in immigrant numbers may not provide the skills that are needed. Impacts Labour shortfalls may delay government infrastructure projects that were designed to lead the post-pandemic economic recovery. Foreign investment may be affected by skills shortages in key areas such as mining and metallurgy. Debate on immigration levels could influence voting in the general election that is now likely to be held in April.

Pandemic poses risks to economic recovery in Mexico

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type

Headline MEXICO: Pandemic poses risks to economic recovery

Iran’s hopes of swift economic recovery will be dashed

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Islamic Revolution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Supreme Leader

Significance His government is in an impasse with the conservative parliament over the draft budget for the new fiscal year beginning on March 21. Rouhani needs the US sanctions to be lifted fast and a COVID-19 vaccination campaign to allow for an exit from the pandemic in order to meet his economic promises. Impacts The supreme leader will become even more closely involved in shaping economic policy, with the autarkic ‘resistance’ narrative dominant. Khamenei may seek a new ‘jihadi manager’ president, linked to the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), who follows his economic vision. Progress with vaccinations, which began on February 8, will likely be slow, as supplies have become highly politicised.

Grey-based model for forecasting Mauritius international tourism from different regions

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Medha Pirthee
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Private Companies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
System Models ◽  
Economic Decision Making ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The Government

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand the trend and forecast the number of tourists from different regions of the world to Mauritius. Design/methodology/approach The paper adopts two grey system models, the even model GM(1,1) and the non-homogeneous discrete grey model (NDGM), to forecast the total number of international tourism to Mauritius and its structure from different regions tourist arrivals to Mauritius for the next three years. Grey system theory models were used to account for uncertainties and the dynamism of the tourism sector environment. The two models were applied as a comparison to obtain more reliable forecasting figures. Findings The results demonstrate that both of the grey system models can be successfully applied with high accuracy for Mauritian tourism prediction, and also the number of tourist arrivals to Mauritius shows a continued augmentation for the upcoming years. Practical implications Forecasting is meaningful since the Government of Mauritius, private companies or any concerned authority can adopt the forecasting methods exposed in this paper for the development of the tourism sector through managerial and economic decision making. Originality/value Mauritius is a charming travel destination. Through this paper, it can be seen that future tourism travel to Mauritius has been successfully predicted based on previous data. Moreover, it seems that the grey system theory models have not been utilised yet as forecasting tools for the tourism sector of Mauritius as opposed to other countries such as China and Taiwan.

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