Delayed Congolese election will prompt a crisis

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dissent ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
The Government

Significance Crackdowns against the political opposition have increased as the government tries to stifle political dissent. The constitution mandates presidential and national assembly elections by late November, but the incumbent, President Joseph Kabila, appears unwilling to leave office despite reaching his term limit. Impacts Tshisekedi's return will raise the stakes in the country's political crisis. Instability or political violence risks shattering DRC's fragile economic recovery. The UN could expand the mandate of its mission in the DRC depending on the outcome of the political process.

Italy's Renzi will face critical tests before year-end

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Political Leadership ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
The Political ◽  
Deep Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance This is a crucial step for the government before year-end, together with long-term banking issues and slowing economic recovery. The European Commission has allowed Italy considerable fiscal flexibility; the government promises to start reducing its debt-to-GDP ratio this year. However, the slowdown could delay achieving this goal. Under this scenario, the government has to campaign for the referendum on its Senate reform. A 'yes' vote is key not only for reforming the political system, but the government's survival. Impacts A 'no' outcome would pull Italy into deep uncertainty concerning its political leadership. It would also end Renzi's premiership; a new majority could follow up to the 2018 general election. However, since Renzi is the PD leader, he is unlikely to support a new government; early elections are likely. In case of a 'yes' outcome, Renzi's premiership will be reinforced, marking a turning point to his declining popularity.

Burundi regime survival eclipses international status

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Forced Migration ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Constitutional Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regime Survival ◽  
The Government ◽  
Chief Prosecutor ◽  
International Status

Significance The decision was the latest move by the government to spurn international involvement in its political crisis. Relations between Burundi and the ICC have been deteriorating since the ICC chief prosecutor announced in April an investigation into political violence that has engulfed the country since President Pierre Nkurunziza's controversial decision to seek a third term in office. Impacts Aid suspensions or sanctions could raise the price of isolation, but implementation will require coordination, an uncertain proposition. The president and his supporters will move toward consolidating power, including through constitutional change. Burundi may withdraw its contingent of troops from the AU Mission in Somalia. Renewed insecurity would drive further forced migration above the hundreds of thousands already displaced.

IMF lending will prod Ukraine to sustain reforms

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Capital Markets ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Capital Markets ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Government

Significance After releasing 1 billion dollars in April, the IMF is urging Ukraine to implement land and pension reforms to make it eligible for further lending tranches. The government is finding it hard to pursue controversial changes opposed by many voters and taken up as causes by the political opposition. Gontareva's resignation reflects a lack of government support and is a setback for the reformist camp. Impacts The 'economic war' emerging alongside armed conflict in the east will dent prospects for growth and reform. Failure to secure further IMF financing could accelerate the planned return to international capital markets, perhaps in the third quarter. Attempts to push through reforms such as land sales may lead to increased political strife but not a full-blown political crisis.

Morena pressure on Mexico’s INE raises democracy risks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Council ◽  
The Political ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
New Members ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
General Secretary ◽  
Chamber Of Deputies

Subject Government-INE tensions. Significance The National Electoral Institute (INE) on February 6 ratified Edmundo Jacobo Molina as its general secretary for another six-year term. The decision, taken with the support of eight of the INE’s eleven-member General Council, has reignited tensions between the government of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) and the INE leadership, particularly Council President Lorenzo Cordova. Several government officials have accused Cordova and his fellow councillors of undemocratic behavior for having brought forward the vote, which was originally scheduled for April 10 -- six days after the Chamber of Deputies is due to appoint four new members to the Council. Impacts The fact that AMLO’s name will not be on the ballot in next year’s legislative elections could be a disadvantage for Morena. In its current weakened state, the political opposition is unlikely to put up an effective fight to uphold the INE’s independence. The four new INE Council members appointed in April will help organise elections in 2024 and 2027, as well as the 2021 midterms.

Political crisis threatens Brazil's tentative recovery

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Construction Company ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Government

Significance The requests are based on plea bargains from former executives of construction company Odebrecht. While the names in ‘Janot’s list’ have not been disclosed, several of them have leaked to the media. They include six ministers in the government of President Michel Temer, two former presidents, ten state governors, and the heads of both houses of Congress. If confirmed, this would make the list a potent bombshell for the Brazilian political class. Impacts The corruption scandal looks set to disrupt next year’s presidential election. Politicians’ disdain for accountability will fuel outrage with the political class. The ground could be fertile for a candidate claiming to be an ‘outsider’.

Vested interests may block urgent tax reform in Jordan

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Tax Reform ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vested Interests ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
The Government

Significance It also looked at government-proposed amendments to another law aiming to reduce the scope for tax evasion in the Aqaba Special Economic Zone. Recent developments including the pandemic, an April political crisis between King Abdullah and his half-brother Prince Hamzah and now the Gaza conflict have highlighted popular dissatisfaction driven by economic grievances. Impacts Tourism should start to recover in late 2021, but revenue is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024 at the earliest. Forecast economic growth of 2-3% over the next four years leaves little scope for improvement in living standards. Without a strong economic recovery, the government will struggle to bring down an unemployment rate that has reached 24%.

Kosovo's political calm may not last

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Issues ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
Limited Success ◽  
Tear Gas ◽  
The Government ◽  
Near Future ◽  
The Eu

Subject Kosovo's temporary political truce. Significance The political crisis has calmed following nine months of steadily escalating unrest, marked by violent street demonstrations and the use of tear-gas in parliament. However, the underlying issues that provoked the unrest -- devolution to Kosovo's various ethnic Serb enclaves and a border treaty that cedes 2,500 hectares of disputed land to Montenegro -- are far from resolved. Accordingly, there is a high risk of a return to unrest in the near future. Impacts Failure to agree a common border with Montenegro will complicate bilateral relations at a time of growing regional instability. Unilateral devolution of power to Serb-majority municipalities risks creating a disputed breach in Kosovo's territorial integrity. Under EU pressure, the government will try to resolve the two key political issues, but with only limited success. Resumed violence will have damaging consequences for the economy, implementing the Brussels Agreement and Kosovo's passage towards the EU.

COVID-19 colours Trinidad and Tobago election outlook

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Trinidad And Tobago ◽  
Election Outcome ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
The Political ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Movement ◽  
National Congress ◽  
The Government

Significance The two main political parties, the governing People’s National Movement (PNM) and the opposition United National Congress (UNC) are jockeying for position, while internal divisions and efforts by smaller parties to make a breakthrough are further muddying the political waters. Impacts The number of small parties will make the election outcome more uncertain, with 19 parties and 150 candidates participating. The short-term ‘bounce’ enjoyed by the government owing to its COVID-19 response may favour the PNM. The outlook for both crime and economic recovery looks uncertain whatever the election outcome.

POLITICAL CRISIS: CURRENT IMPACT OF THE '1/11' (ONE-ELEVEN) EVENT IN BANGLADESH AND ITS FUTURE

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 75-102
Author(s):  
Md Saiful Islam
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Method ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Freedom Of Speech ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Democratic Process ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Government ◽  
Current Impact

Since 2009, after the December 2008 elections, the government has changed its political motives to hold power a long time and has taken a more conciliatory approach towards the political oppositions. Even the political crisis in Bangladesh is an everyday affair since the birth of this country. The fear of the blot '1/11' (one-eleven) event led to the current political crisis (such as undemocratic electoral process, violence, and conflicts, violation of human rights, blocking the freedom of speech, corruption, money laundering, and so on). The primary objective is to identify how the blot '1/11' (one-eleven) event has affected Bangladesh's political process. The study also focuses on the current political crisis's challenges through the existing scenery and realities in Bangladesh. The descriptive and quantitative method was adopted, and data was collected via existing survey reports, official statistical records, and published sources. The study's result revealed no proper democratic process in Bangladesh, but the country is in an autocratic regime. The research suggests that all stockholders of government, opposition parties, and international communities should care about Bangladesh's current political crisis for ensuring more committed, free and fair, and credible elections.

scholarly journals The Political Economy of Autocratization

2021 ◽  
Vol 54 (4) ◽  
pp. 117-136
Author(s):  
Aris Trantidis
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Political Violence ◽  
Authoritarian Regime ◽  
The State ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Cost

In competitive authoritarian systems, aspiring autocrats must win elections and marginalize the political opposition. In Belarus, President Alexander Lukashenko’s strategy for political hegemony heavily relied on socioeconomic co-optation, offering privileges to supporters and imposing sanctions on dissenters. In an economy dominated by the state, co-optation had a coercive effect on behavior. Without sizable areas of activity autonomous from the government, citizens could not defy or mitigate the cost of reprisals for openly supporting the political opposition. Through co-optation, Lukashenko weakened the opposition and built an authoritarian regime without resorting to extensive political violence, which could have undermined his claim of public legitimacy.

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