South Africa's ANC factionalisation will hasten

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Election ◽  
Power Utility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Conference ◽  
The Government ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance Khoza has openly called on ANC MPs to vote against President Jacob Zuma in a parliamentary motion of no confidence scheduled for August 8. Despite many ANC members privately agreeing with Khoza, most ruling party lawmakers have kept silent ahead of the crucial vote. Instead, the race to succeed Zuma as leader at December's national conference is prompting fierce internal contestation among the party and its alliance structures, threatening to undermine its 2019 general election performance. Impacts Intra-ANC violence could grow in the run up to, and after, December’s national conference. Ongoing corruption allegations involving officials at state-owned power utility Eskom could implicate members of the government. Relations between the minister of mines and the Chamber of Mines are likely to deteriorate further following new government restrictions.

Tanzania’s elections will revolve around ruling party

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Civil Service ◽  
General Election ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Election Cycle ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Internal Competition ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Tanzania election outlook. Significance Tanzania faces a prolonged period of electioneering as the political elite prepares for the October 2020 general election. Even for a country in which the ruling party has successfully won every election it has contested, the jostling for power in this election cycle will be heavily inward-looking. Factionalism, posturing and settling of scores within the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party will take centre stage. Impacts Pre-selection campaigns are self-funded; this will increase corruption risks as candidates look to secure and spend campaign funds. The government has already limited civil service decision-making power; with ministers distracted, decisions will slow further. The president may leverage internal competition over cabinet posts to further centralise his control of the party.

Kishida will raise confidence in Japan's ruling party

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Energy Policy ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance Kishida is a veteran politician from the party mainstream, who served as former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's foreign minister for many years and then as party policy chief. Parliament will convene on October 4 and elect him as the new prime minister. He will lead the party into a general election now expected on either November 7 or 14. Impacts Stimulus measures to deal with the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will be an early priority. The run-up to the COP26 climate conference will see details of the new government's energy policy emerge, which will include nuclear power. The LDP's status as ruling party is not under threat, but losing seats in the election would immediately weaken Kishida's position.

Early polls give Baldizon election edge in Guatemala

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
General Election ◽  
Investment Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Companies ◽  
Legislative Activity ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject The outlook for the September presidential elections. Significance Guatemala is due to vote for a new president, congressional representatives and local mayors at a general election in September 2015. Constitutional restrictions prevent incumbent President Otto Perez Molina from standing for a second term. Ruling party candidate Alejandro Sinibaldi currently trails challenger Manuel Baldizon in the polls. Impacts The pace of legislative activity will slow further in the run-up to the vote as legislators concentrate on campaign activities. Foreign companies perceived by local communities to be interfering with electoral politics may become targets of protest action. Economic and investment policy is anticipated to remain broadly similar under Perez Molina's eventual successor.

Elections will weigh on Ivory Coast’s reform momentum

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Competition ◽  
State Power ◽  
Civil Servants ◽  
Power Utility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Public Opposition

Subject Ivorian economic fragility. Significance The uncertainty and intense political competition surrounding the 2020 elections risks fuelling populist pressures on President Alassane Ouattara’s administration. While his government will not reverse course on the broad thrust of its economic agenda, the pace and scope of pro-business reforms risk being curtailed. Impacts The government will be vulnerable to more strikes by civil servants and military mutinies, having previously succumbed to these pressures. The government will try pushing the reform credentials of Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly, Ouattara’s potential ruling party successor. Planned power tariff hikes may be delayed due to public opposition while public-sector arrears to the state power utility may go unpaid. Overdue tax collection reforms, which made some initial headway under IMF pressure, could face further delays.

Holding banks to account for the financial crisis?

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-69
Author(s):  
Oonagh Anne McDonald
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Housing Policy ◽  
Careful Analysis ◽  
Careful Examination ◽  
Department Of Justice ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Federal Housing ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Government ◽  
Run Up

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the ways in which the USA has sought to hold the leading banks to account for the financial crisis and to asses the validity of the methods used. This is the first of two articles which looks at the basis of the Complaints against the banks and the settlements which led to the imposition of large fines on the banks. Design/methodology/approach – The paper first provides an account of the government housing policy from 1995 to 2008 and argues that the cases brought against the banks and then at the legal basis of the charges. The methodology consists of a careful examination of the documentary evidence and an analysis of the changes in the relevant laws used by the Department of Justice when bringing charges against the banks. Findings – The paper concludes that both the basis of the cases against the banks and the purpose of large fines are open to question. Research limitations/implications – Much of the information is available. However, as the major cases against the large banks did not go the court, and the basis of the fines is a settlement between the bank and the Department of Justice, each fine is supported by a relatively brief “Statement of the Facts”. The evidence amassed by subpoenas issued by the Department of Justice is not tested in court. Practical implications – Much greater consideration must be given to more effective ways of holding banks and especially senior executives to account. Social implications – The imposition of large fines does not satisfy the public desire to see that justice is done. Such fines imposed on the ban are not likely to change bank behaviour. Originality/value – Its originality lies in setting out an account of government housing policy and its role in the run-up to the financial crisis. No one has carried out a careful analysis of the cases against the large banks brought by the Department of Justice and, in the second article, by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

Was there a regulatory approval market for mortgages?

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 354-365
Author(s):  
Peggy Crawford ◽  
Joetta Forsyth
Keyword(s):  
House Price ◽  
Underserved Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Community Needs ◽  
Fannie Mae ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Government ◽  
Run Up ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Freddie Mac

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the underserved area requirements for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the government-sponsored enterprises [GSEs]) and the community needs requirements of the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) contributed to the house price run-up in the USA. Design/methodology/approach – This paper predicts the incidence of “Rebounds”, which indicate that a mortgage had been previously denied, to provide evidence on whether certain regulations caused excessively risky mortgage originations. As a different lender rejected the loan given the interest rate that they were willing to charge and information on the borrower, a higher incidence of Rebounds provides evidence that lenders were more frequently disagreeing about loans. This can indicate differences in regulatory pressure or oversight across lenders. Findings – This paper provides evidence that the GSEs were purchasing fewer Rebounds directly from lenders. However, evidence suggests that indirectly, the securitization market served as a conduit for Rebounds to the GSEs that needed to satisfy regulatory underserved area requirements. The necessity of complying with the CRA was found to increase Rebounds. Among regulators, the Federal Reserve was found to have been particularly associated with Rebounds. Originality/value – The paper’s contribution comes from linking Rebounds to legislative and regulatory influences. This contributes to the literature on excess credit and fraud, as well as the effect of underserved area requirements and the CRA. Also, this paper adds a new dimension to the literature on securitization, by showing the influence of regulation on the securitization of risky mortgages.

New party could shift Zimbabwe's political balance

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Food Aid ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
Political Patronage ◽  
People First ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Political outlook in Zimbabwe. Significance On February 17, former Vice President Joice Mujuru formally launched a new party -- Zimbabwe People First (ZPF) -- to contest the 2018 election. Usually, such announcements are met with scepticism, given the failure of past attempts to unseat President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party. However, unprecedented divisions within the ruling party mean ZPF may pose a real electoral challenge. Impacts The government's wholesale takeover of the Marange diamond fields could provide fresh opportunities for political patronage. New rules imposing taxes on around 40 imported basic foods means that the government could benefit financially from emergency food aid. Several G40 members could benefit from Zhuwao's stricter indigenisation rules, which bans foreign investment in 'protected' sectors. Such regulation, together with the drought and weak commodity prices, means GDP growth could fail to reach the World Bank's 1.5% forecast. Mugabe's lavish birthday celebrations will fuel public anger -- given the current food crisis -- possibly boosting opposition support.

Uganda former PM aspirant will provoke backlash

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Internal Disruption ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Police Forces

Subject Pre-election politics in Uganda. Significance The long-expected announcement on June 15 by sacked Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi that he will run for president will bring bitter tensions between him and President Yoweri Museveni out into the open. It is highly unlikely to threaten the latter's 30-year rule but may provoke internal disruption within the ruling party as Museveni makes an example of internal dissent. Impacts Loyalty among the military and police forces will remain central to Museveni's power. Museveni effectively distances himself from graft scandals, while Mbabazi's reputation remains tarnished by several high-profile cases. Oil firms could see some benefits, if Museveni decides to assure them of his solid hold on power. The government was already likely to unleash inflation-inducing spending during the election, but Mbabazi's campaign increases this risk.

Nigeria’s president will struggle to contain threats

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Niger Delta ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Stagnation ◽  
Presidential Succession ◽  
Inner Circle ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance The bombing is the latest setback for the government. Recent military gains against Boko Haram and increasing oil production in the Niger Delta have failed to offset the distinct governance problems facing Abuja. Amid a deepening economic crisis, President Muhammadu Buhari is facing challenges within the ruling alliance and emergent political threats nationwide. Impacts Presidential succession manoeuvring could undermine unity, leading to ruling party infighting and a possible contested nomination process. Key members of Buhari’s inner circle will come under pressure to resign as new scandals emerge. Populist alternatives to the president will surface, as citizens grow frustrated with economic stagnation and high prices.

Correa may yet win fourth term in Ecuador

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Media Freedom ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electoral Campaigns ◽  
Wealth Redistribution ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Successive Term ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Pre-election politics in Ecuador. Significance Deteriorating economic conditions, declining public spending and falling support for the government have provided opposition forces with a favourable climate to make gains in advance of next year's general elections. However, with little over eight months before voters are scheduled to go to the polls, the opposition is fragmented and the main challengers are uncertain. The political landscape is further complicated by uncertainty over who will stand for the ruling party. While President Rafael Correa has repeatedly stated that he will not compete, he may yet seek election for a fourth successive term. Impacts Constitutional reform, media freedom, security and tax reductions will be the focus of electoral campaigns from the right and centre. Preventing large-scale mining, environmentalism, creating a plurinational state and wealth redistribution will be central to the left. The full list of parties and candidates authorised to compete in the elections will not be known until the year-end.

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