Political crisis to hinder Nicaragua economic recovery

Significance However, the prospects of a sustained recovery are clouded by fiscal weakness, a precarious balance-of-payments position, a deteriorating business environment and the threat of international sanctions on the financial sector. The country's most vulnerable communities are yet to recover from the damage wrought by Hurricanes Eta and Iota. Impacts An accommodative monetary policy will be maintained in an effort to support economic recovery. Ortega’s control over the judiciary will heighten legal uncertainty and erode the ability of investors to enforce contracts. The prolonged depreciation of the Cordoba will increase servicing costs of public and private dollar-denominated debts. Refugee outflows will intensify after November’s elections, with knock-on effects for the rest of the region.

Significance Underneath Congo’s deepening political crisis there also lies an acute balance-of-payments crisis. Despite relative improvements in the price of key exports, currency depreciation and rampant inflation are driving liquidity constraints and exacerbating socio-economic risks. Impacts Rising prices and stagnant wages may prompt fresh economic protests or strikes. As growth slows, central bank funding could become a more important source of political patronage. Neighbours' sympathy for DRC's sovereignty claims will undercut international efforts to ensure a political transition.


Subject The difficulties of economic policy-making. Significance The first-quarter primary deficit reached 0.4% of GDP, below the quarterly goal of 0.6%. The rise in revenues, mainly due to the tax amnesty that ended in March, helped offset higher spending in areas such as social security payments and capital investment, driven by the pre-election revival of public works. However, in the absence of extraordinary revenues during the rest of the year, it will be harder to meet fiscal targets. Impacts The lack of coordination between fiscal and monetary policies raises concerns over macroeconomic stability. This will further discourage consumption and investment, preventing a sustained economic recovery. Growing fiscal and external deficits will raise risks of a balance-of-payments crisis in the medium term.


Significance The statement comes against a move by Bouteflika to undercut an effort by Ouyahia to promote privatisation as part of a strategy for dealing with the sharp fall in oil and gas revenue, which has saddled the country with large fiscal and balance-of-payments deficits. Bouteflika’s intervention took the form of a decree stating that his office must have the final say on the sale of any state asset. It was issued within days of Ouyahia announcing a new privatisation policy. Impacts There is a risk that the combination of supply restrictions and loose monetary policy will drive up inflation. The import ban will attract foreign investors to import substitution projects, but they will be loath to put in much capital and technology. Checking Ouyahia’s ambitions is an important element in the plans for Bouteflika’s circle to prolong their grip on power.


Significance This latest warrant issued against Kodjo is widely viewed as an attempt to intimidate further a leading opposition figure, as well as to send a strong message to other critics of President Faure Gnassingbe. Impacts Slow reforms in the financial sector, coupled with high non-performing loans, pose an ongoing risk over the short term. Faure’s government will likely hasten the much-delayed privatisation of two state-owned banks, a key component of its IMF programme. The opposition's failure to unite, coupled with some economic recovery, might all but ensure Faure a fifth term.


Significance Unlike in Labour’s first term, the party now no longer needs the support of minor parties to govern. Its 49% win is extraordinary given the mixed-member proportional electoral system and enables Ardern to implement her policies without seeking wider political consensus. Impacts Ardern’s win was widely anticipated, so it will have minimal effect on financial markets and business confidence. There is some agricultural and business-sector concern that the Greens will wield too much power if they are involved in government. New Zealand’s borders will remain closed for now: eliminating COVID-19 from the community is Ardern’s strategy. Ardern will invest in trades training and infrastructure, but aggressive monetary policy will still be key to economic recovery. The weakness of the centre-right National Party is letting the libertarian ACT New Zealand rise in popularity.


Significance The first policy loosening in more than six years highlights government concerns about the challenging outlook for bank lending. The plunge in global oil prices and sharp depreciation of the naira are severely testing the resilience of the recently reformed banking sector. Impacts The rate cut reveals that the government's priority is to boost the lending environment over using tighter monetary policy as a stabiliser. However, the effect of the stimulus on inflation and growth will only become apparent next year. Balance-of-payments crisis warnings do not take into account fairly sound debt ratios and reserve levels.


Significance Now that Zeman has successfully retaken the presidency with 152,000 more votes than his pro-Western rival Jiri Drahos after a campaign that was dominated by domestic issues, attention will focus once again on forming a majority government after the largest parliamentary party, ANO 2011, lost a vote of confidence on January 16. Impacts Consumer confidence may strengthen in the short term as the old ANO-CSSD government’s policies take effect, providing an economic boost. Robust household consumption and public- and private-backed investment may also contribute to stronger GDP this year. Although monetary policy is set to tighten, in response to signs of overheating, interest rates will remain at historic lows. The outlook for the economy in the short term is upbeat, with a strong outturn expected for the fourth quarter of 2017. Structural reforms will be required over the medium term to reduce the risk of capacity constraints, especially in industry.


Significance In the political battle between Prime Minister Edi Rama and President Ilir Meta, parliament -- which is dominated by Rama’s Socialist Party (PS) -- wants to impeach the president following his attempt to cancel the June 30 local elections. Meta’s move was prompted by the decision of the main opposition parties, including the centre-right Democratic Party (PD), to boycott the poll. Impacts Failure to resolve the political crisis will delay the opening of Albania’s accession talks with the EU. The political uncertainty will dampen economic growth, which slowed markedly in the first quarter of 2019. A deteriorating business environment will weaken foreign direct investment inflows. If economic performance remains subdued, it could result in more Albanian migrants seeking work abroad.


2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 494-509 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Naeem ◽  
Mohammad Javid Khan

Purpose Many organizations are struggling to achieve competitiveness due to lack of knowledge sharing (KS) practices. The sustainability of the service sector is linked to KS practices and creativity. Therefore, to survive in a dynamic business environment, universities have to formulate and implement such practices and innovative learning systems. This paper aims to highlight how social media networking apps can be used efficiently and effectively to support the antecedents of KS among the employees in public and private universities. Design/methodology/approach This study is based on a positivistic approach and a quantitative research design. A survey was carried out with employees at public and private universities. The respondents were chosen based on simple random sampling with the purpose of increasing the validity and generalizability of the results in the context of university settings and for other sectors as well. Findings Certain individual and organizational factors have been found, which have been supported by social networking tools. These factors can enhance KS practices, such as informal relationships and social networking, effective communication and collaboration, mutual trust and the intention to share knowledge, the KS culture and new ideas. The results of this study reveal that social networking applications such as WhatsApp, Viber, Skype, Facebook, Research-gate, YouTube and personal blogs are more productive in supporting the antecedents of KS stated above in university settings. Research limitations/implications Social networking applications have received attention because executives and researchers are increasingly focusing on finding new ways to use social networking tools for business purposes. The effective and efficient use of social networking tools helps organizations to foster knowledge amongst employees to address various critical issues, such as knowledge hoarding, lower levels of skills and knowledge, lower levels of communication and employee involvement, a lack of the intention to share knowledge and resistance toward the adoption of new technology. Originality/value There is rare literature available on how social networking tools can support the antecedents of KS in university settings. Most of such literature has investigated the link between social media and KS using a systematic literature and qualitative research approach. This research is based on empirical study and it is unique as it investigates the hitherto under-researched issue of the adoption of social networking applications to foster the antecedents of KS in university settings.


Significance The court ruled that Costa Junior had not relinquished his Portuguese nationality at the time of his election, as the constitution mandates. This has sparked a political crisis in the run-up to next year’s general election. Impacts Accusations of election meddling could compromise President Joao Lourenco’s international reformist credentials. Protests could become more violent and political instability could become an obstacle to economic recovery. Lourenco’s authority within the MPLA may be challenged from the inside, as military veterans see him as too weak to control UNITA.


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