Prediction Candidates and Political Parties in the Presidential Election 2024 in Indonesia Based on Twitter

Twitter is a popular platform on social media that is used to predict presidential candidates and political parties who will contest in the presidential election. This study uses a quantitative approach with descriptive content analysis. This approach describes the details of a text or message related to discussions and information on the Twitter social network in the 2024 presidential election. The research subjects are Twitter social media users based on the involvement of Twitter users in the 2024 presidential election discourse in Indonesia. The data is obtained from Twitter with Twitter Search focusing on the keyword “Pilpres 2024”. The analytical tool used is Nvivo 12 Plus software with Word Frequency Query and Text Search Query analysis features. This study predicts that candidates with a strong chance as official candidates are Anies Baswedan, Prabowo, and Ganjar Pranowo. The mapping of political parties indicates that there will be political contestation between nationalist parties and religious-based parties in the 2024 presidential election.

Catalonia

This chapter presents the first case study, Catalonia. By the mid 2010s, the traditional autonomism of Catalan nationalism had become a minority position. The basic argument of the chapter is that Catalonia’s autonomy within Spain, at least since 2010, is static, which means Catalans consider there is little chance that the current system can adapt to their national identity and take into consideration their evolving collective interests. The 2010 Spanish Constitutional Court’s judgment, that invalidated and narrowly interpreted many articles of the reform to the Catalan Stature of Autonomy negotiated four years earlier between the Catalan and Spanish governments, represented a clear statement of the static nature of Catalan autonomy. That statement generated mounting pressures by civil society on nationalist parties, particularly CiU, to adopt clear secessionist positions. The status quo and secession seem to be the only two possible constitutional options, and defending the status quo for Catalonia’s nationalist parties was an untenable political and electoral position. As such, the Catalan secessionist turn involved CiU’s own secessionist turn. As the Catalan government embarked on a process of self-determination, the Spanish state responded by declaring any independence referendum, as well as the act of secession itself, unconstitutional. In so doing, the Spanish state reaffirmed that Catalonia’s autonomy was static insofar as no Catalan political act could trigger a progressive change in the powers of the Generalitat. This stance consolidated the new secessionist pathway of Catalan nationalism.

Nationalism, Class, and Status: How Nationalists Use Policy Offers and Group Appeals to Attract a New Electorate

How do nationalist parties attract votes? This article develops a novel supply-side explanation centered on status, arguing that nationalists succeed by combining group appeals to the nation with policy promises to improve the nation’s political and cultural status and the socio-economic status of its median member. Drawing on several original datasets, this expectation is tested on Imperial Austria in 1907, where multiple nationalist parties competed in first-time mass elections. We find that group appeals to the nation and promises to improve its political and cultural status resonate very well with agricultural workers, whose economic sector was declining, but not with industrial workers, whose sector was on the rise. By contrast, offering social policy helps nationalists among industrial workers, but less clearly so among agricultural workers. This article shows that nationalist mobilization is not a mere distraction from class politics; rather, the politics of nationalism, class, and status are closely intertwined.

The Effect of Trade on Workers and Voters*

We investigate economic causes of the rising support of populist parties in industrialized countries. Looking at Germany, we find that exposure to imports from low wage countries increases the support for nationalist parties between 1987–2009, while increasing exports have the opposite effect. The net effect translates into increasing support of the right-populist AfD after its emergence in 2013. Individual data from the German Socioeconomic Panel reveal that low-skilled manufacturing workers’ political preferences are most responsive to trade exposure. Using a novel approach to causal mediation analysis, we identify trade-induced labor market adjustments as economic mechanism causing the voting response to international trade.

The Politics of Intolerant Laws against Adherents of Indigenous Beliefs or Aliran Kepercayaan in Indonesia

Earlier studies have examined the discriminatory effects of laws and policies against the adherents of indigenous beliefs—Aliran Kepercayaan—in Indonesia. However, those studies do not show how the politics of law were developed through the prior sociopolitical processes in Indonesia’s legislative history. This study analyzes how and why the government initiated and later put an end to discrimination against adherents of Aliran Kepercayaan—at least in the realm of population administration. Under the New Order era, political battles gave birth to the politics of law discriminating against the Aliran Kepercayaan adherents. Weakening political resistance in the Reformasi era as well as judicial review before the Constitutional Court forced the government to partially relax its discriminatory laws and policies. Nonetheless, progressive initiatives from secular nationalist parties have yet to be taken in order to further ensure equality for all minority—religious—groups within Indonesian society before the law.

In Search of Lost Glory

This book traces the trajectory of Sindhi nationalism in its quest for lost glory. It examines the Sindhi nationalist movement through its various stages, ranging from pre-partition identity construction in pursuit of the separation of Sindh from Bombay, to the post-partition travails of a community which lost its identity and its capital as a result of the arrival of millions of migrants from India (Muhajirs) and of the actions of an over-bearing central government. Going beyond the state and its power play, the book examines the long history of Sindhi-Muhajir contestation for resources in the post-partition period. The book develops a comprehensive profile of the agency of nationalist parties in Sindh, including the Sindhudesh detour and the later fragmentation of the Jiye Sind movement, which was followed by the emergence of new parties. The author also analyzes the dual role of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) as an ethnic entrepreneur inside the province while operating as a federal party outside Sindh. The book covers nationalist contention at three levels: the struggle for power between Sindh and a dominant Centre; the inter-ethnic conflict between Sindhis and Muhajirs; and the intra-ethnic contestation between the Sindhi nationalists themselves and the PPP.

Sindhi Nationalists

This chapter discusses the narrative of the three icons of Sindhi nationalism—G. M. Syed, Ibrahim Joyo and Shaikh Ayaz—and analyzes the separatist Sindhudesh detour as a sign of intra-ethnic outbidding between Syed and Bhutto. The chapter profiles the post-Syed landscape of Sindhi nationalism by focusing on the various nationalist parties led by Rasul Baksh Palijo, Qadir Magsi and others, and on issues such as the Kalabagh Dam, the NFC Award and the Eighteenth Amendment. The chapter sheds light on everyday nationalism as expressed through intellectual activities, musical sessions, anniversaries of the nationalist heroes, and meetings around Sufi shrines.

Voting for Jobbik and the Front National

The article explores the perceptions of socio-economic change among voters of two European neo-nationalist parties: Jobbik in Hungary and Front National in France. Building on Karl Polanyi’s ‘double-movement’ framework, it advances the argument that marketization of societies is prone to: first, generate individual- and group-level psychological experiences of nostalgia, relative deprivation, and status frustration; and relatedly, second, engender a demand for political refuge in the form of populist nationalism. To empirically substantiate my propositions, I draw on a variety of public opinion data to find the signs of these demand-driven mechanisms. Overall, I find that voters from the working and lower middle-classes, made insecure by socio-economic transformations, have resorted to the neo-nationalist solution as an alternative system of identification, and as a coping strategy. Jobbik and Front National have politicized the frame of the ‘sovereign people’ in congruence with citizens’ perceived frustrations and vulnerabilities. The analysis also suggests that disenfranchised voters are more discontent with the experience of socio-economic decline, and the feeling of betrayal by the elites, than are essentially intolerant towards minorities.