Weaker parliament will emerge from Kyrgyz election

Significance The election is intended to close off a turbulent year that started with the October 2020 legislative polls, swiftly annulled amid mass protests and allegations of fraud, followed by a power grab by Sadyr Japarov, now president, and a constitutional reform. Campaigning has featured tried-and-tested techniques of voter bribery and intimidation that dilute the electoral process's democratic credentials. Impacts The imprisonment of many better-known elite figures reduces the electoral challenge facing Japarov's allies. Around 8% of voters, mostly abroad, are disenfranchised because they lack biometric registration. Japarov will use nationalist rhetoric cannily, scoring points against Tajikistan but professing loyalty to Russia.

Significance The debate over constitutional reform will be enlivened by the upcoming election of a constituent convention in Chile on the same day as the Peruvian elections. Impacts Constitutional change may become a banner for the left elsewhere in Latin America. Future constitutional reforms may reconsider the status of indigenous communities in the Amazon. Workers’ rights, include labour stability, may be strengthened.


Subject The outlook for constitutional reform and presidential re-election. Significance Since the government announced its intention to revise the constitution to allow President Rafael Correa to seek re-election in 2017, the opposition has resisted the move. Various parties and coalitions have attempted to call a referendum on the issue using mechanisms in the 2008 constitution to enable greater public participation in political decision-making. The government has used its influence over public institutions to block a referendum, fearing defeat at the polls. The outcome of the conflict remains unclear six months on from when the proposal was first announced. Impacts The fragmentation of the opposition will bolster government attempts to rebuff demands for a referendum. Denying the public the opportunity to vote on constitutional reform will undermine the legitimacy of the president and government. The economic fallout from low oil prices will complicate the government's political situation and allow for opposition gains.


Significance This follows the National League for Democracy (NLD) winning an absolute Union parliament majority, meaning it can form the next government alone and elect the next Union president. Impacts How the NLD develops its policy agenda will determine whether the country can attract greater foreign investment and aid. Progress on a nationwide ethnic ceasefire will likely be slow under the NLD. The military's view of itself as a political actor will constrain any moves by the NLD on constitutional reform.


Subject Anti-corruption protests. Significance Major anti-corruption marches in August underlined ongoing popular frustration with the slow progress of official investigations into the Odebrecht corruption scandal. While President Daniel Medina has pledged to investigate all wrongdoing and bring culprits to justice, few formal prosecutions have yet been launched. Popular disillusionment with the government could therefore threaten Medina’s plans for a constitutional reform to permit unlimited presidential re-election. Impacts Marcha Verde is likely to step up its protest activity as pre-campaigning begins for the 2020 elections. Ongoing political noise about corruption could deter some investment, particularly in the construction sector. US relations may suffer due to the OFAC action against Bautista, and the cutting of diplomatic ties with Taiwan.


Subject Tanzanian constitutional reform Significance Political, religious and civil society leaders are calling for constitutional reform before the 2020 elections. These demands are underpinned by rising fears for the future of Tanzania’s multi-party democracy, which add to existing concerns over the concentration of power in the executive branch. Impacts A new constitution will be an opportunity to enshrine popular resource-nationalist principles behind recent natural resources legislation. The issue of Zanzibar's place in the union will come to the fore, creating an unstable environment for the 2020 elections there. The government will likely ease repression of dissenting voices in order to give a review process credibility.


Significance Keita tried and failed to enact a similar package in 2017. The reforms have a better chance of passing this time, but opposition could still thwart the president’s plans. Impacts Foreign governments would likely be pleased if the reforms pass, as this would advance formal implementation of the Algiers Accord. The reforms will be unlikely to stem rising violence, particularly in central Mali, whose problems are not addressed by the Accord. Efforts by ex-rebels to expand their authority will have a greater political impact in the north, for now, than any constitutional reform.


Significance The new government will bring a much-needed easing of tensions following the widespread protests that met the short-lived presidency of Manuel Merino. Sagasti should be able to count on support from Congress and himself avoid impeachment. His cabinet is technically competent. The issue of constitutional reform is likely to gain salience over the period of election campaigning. Impacts The economy will revive in 2021, but not sufficiently to offset the sharp fall this year. Plans to draft a new constitution in Chile will add to pressures for constitutional reform. The proliferation of presidential candidates means the elections will go to a second round.


Headline VENEZUELA: Constitutional reform seeks early elections


Headline MYANMAR: Constitutional reform may be forthcoming


Headline UGANDA: Constitutional reform will be carefully timed


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