New Myanmar government faces tough policy tests

Significance This follows the National League for Democracy (NLD) winning an absolute Union parliament majority, meaning it can form the next government alone and elect the next Union president. Impacts How the NLD develops its policy agenda will determine whether the country can attract greater foreign investment and aid. Progress on a nationwide ethnic ceasefire will likely be slow under the NLD. The military's view of itself as a political actor will constrain any moves by the NLD on constitutional reform.

Significance Duterte wants to amend the constitution for various reasons, one being to aid foreign investment to further economic development. Comments by Duterte on November 23 also suggest that his administration could take more interventionist economic measures, which may particularly affect the energy and telecommunications sectors, to support economic development though greater competition. Impacts Energy sector liberalisation could help ease Philippine power shortages and benefit industry. Lowering telecommunication and energy prices, and improving these sectors' performance, would further boost Duterte politically. Vested interests inside and outside congress could resist constitutional reform efforts.


Subject The outlook for subsequent rounds of six-party talks. Significance Six-party talks covering constitutional reform, the November national legislative elections and ongoing negotiations between the central government and armed ethnic groups were held on April 10. Despite the attendees' divergent agendas, this new dialogue process represents a steering committee for Myanmar's evolving political establishment. Impacts The constitutional reform referendum will probably be delayed. A leadership crisis within the National League for Democracy could follow the 2015 polls. Western support is likely to shift somewhat from Suu Kyi towards the wider electoral process.


Subject Prospects for constitutional reform in Kenya. Significance In the wake of his post-election reconciliation with President Uhuru Kenyatta, opposition leader Raila Odinga has continued to push for constitutional reforms. This has sparked a wider debate that has led to various reform proposals. However, so far, there appears to be little consensus on the way forward. Impacts The high public wage bill will limit popular support for a new constitution that creates more political positions. The ‘Big Four’ policy agenda will continue to suffer amid politicking around presidential succession. Even with 5-6% growth trends, the rising cost of living will remain the primary problem facing most Kenyans.


2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Arenal ◽  
Claudio Feijoo ◽  
Ana Moreno ◽  
Cristina Armuña ◽  
Sergio Ramos

Purpose Academic research into entrepreneurship policy is particularly interesting due to the increasing relevance of the topic and since knowledge about the evolution of themes in this field is still rather limited. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the key concepts, topics, trends and shifts that have shaped the entrepreneurship policy research agenda during the period 1990–2016. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses text mining techniques, cluster analysis and complementary bibliographic data to examine the evolution of a corpus of 1,048 academic papers focused on entrepreneurship-related policies and published during the period 1990–2016 in ten relevant journals. In particular, the paper follows a standard text mining workflow: first, as text is unstructured, content requires a set of pre-processing tasks and then a stemming process. Then, the paper examines the most repeated concepts within the corpus, considering the whole period 1990–2016 and also in five-year terms. Finally, the paper conducts a k-means clustering to divide the collection of documents into coherent groups with similar content. The analyses in the paper also include geographical particularities considering three regional sub-corpora, distinguishing those articles authored in the European Union (EU), the USA and South and Eastern Asia, respectively. Findings Results of the analysis show that inclusion, employment and regulation-related papers have largely dominated the research in the field, evolving from an initial classical approach to the relationship between entrepreneurship and employment to a wider, multidisciplinary perspective, including the relevance of management, geographies and narrower topics such as agglomeration economics or internationalisation instead of the previous generic sectorial approaches. The text mining analysis also reveals how entrepreneurship policy research has gained increasing attention and has become both more open, with a growing cooperation among researchers from different affiliations, and more sophisticated, with concepts and themes that moved the research agenda forward, closer to the priorities of policy implementation. Research limitations/implications The paper identifies main trends and research gaps in the field of entrepreneurship policy providing actionable knowledge by presenting the spectrum of both over-explored and understudied research themes in the field. In practical terms the results of the text mining analysis can be interpreted as a compass to navigate the entrepreneurship policy research agenda. Practical implications The paper presents the heterogeneity of topics under research in the field, reinforcing the concept of entrepreneurship as a multidisciplinary and dynamic domain. Therefore, the definition and adoption of a certain policy agenda in entrepreneurship should consider multiple aspects (needs, objectives, stakeholders, expected outputs, etc.) to be comprehensive and aligned with its complexity. In addition, the paper shows how text mining techniques could be used to map the research activity in a particular field, contributing to the challenge of linking research and policy. Originality/value The exploratory nature of text mining allows us to obtain new knowledge and reveals hidden patterns from large quantities of documents/text data, representing an opportunity to complement other qualitative reviews. In this sense, the main value of this paper is not to advise on the future configuration of entrepreneurship policy as a research topic, but to unwrap the past by unveiling how key themes of the entrepreneurship policy research agenda have emerged, evolved and/or declined over time as a foundation on which to build further developments.


Significance Although President Cyril Ramaphosa has publicly committed to increase funding to combat what he calls South Africa’s “second pandemic”, there is a lack of transparency in how the government disburses funds linked to its National Strategic Plan (NSP) on Gender-based Violence and Femicide. Impacts Civil society groups will increase pressure on the government to make expenditure on GBV programmes more transparent. A new private-sector fund to contribute to the NSP has received strong early support, but its management structure is opaque. High levels of GBV will not only have significant humanitarian and social costs but may deter much-needed foreign investment.


Significance The debate over constitutional reform will be enlivened by the upcoming election of a constituent convention in Chile on the same day as the Peruvian elections. Impacts Constitutional change may become a banner for the left elsewhere in Latin America. Future constitutional reforms may reconsider the status of indigenous communities in the Amazon. Workers’ rights, include labour stability, may be strengthened.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Van Ha ◽  
Mark J. Holmes ◽  
Gazi Hassan

PurposeThis study focuses on the linkages between foreign direct investment and the research and development (R&D) and innovation activity of domestic enterprises in Vietnam.Design/methodology/approachThe Heckman selection model approach is applied to a panel dataset of nearly 7,000 Vietnamese firms for the 2011–2015 study period to investigate the impact of foreign presence on the R&D of local firms through horizontal and vertical linkages. Probit model estimation is employed to examine how foreign investment influences the innovation activity of local companies.FindingsWhile there are a small number of firms carrying out R&D activities in Vietnam, foreign or joint domestic–foreign venture firms are less inclined than domestic firms to undertake R&D. Domestic factors that include capital, labor quality, location and export status of firm have a significant effect on the decision of domestic firms to participate in R&D activity. Only forward linkages and the gross firm output are found to have an impact on the R&D intensity of domestic enterprises, while other factors appear to have no significant influence on how much firms spend on R&D activities.Practical implicationsIn order to promote the R&D activity of domestic firms, policy should focus on (1) the backward linkages between local firms in downstream sectors with their foreign suppliers in upstream sectors, and (2) the internal factors such as labor, capital or location that affect the decisions made by domestic firms.Originality/valueGiven that foreign investment may affect R&D and innovation activity of local firms in host countries, the impact is relatively unexplored for many emerging economies and not so in the case of Vietnam. The availability of a unique survey on Vietnamese firm technology and competitiveness provides the opportunity to address this gap in the literature.


Significance The closing of internal and external borders in response to COVID-19 has heightened a longstanding skills deficit in key industries, with implications for wage levels, prices and broader economic growth. However, a general increase in immigrant numbers may not provide the skills that are needed. Impacts Labour shortfalls may delay government infrastructure projects that were designed to lead the post-pandemic economic recovery. Foreign investment may be affected by skills shortages in key areas such as mining and metallurgy. Debate on immigration levels could influence voting in the general election that is now likely to be held in April.


Significance A 2018 peace agreement was meant to provide space for economic reform and recovery, but it has failed to deliver this. Moreover, the outlook for improvement remains poor. Impacts Many South Sudanese will remain reliant on international organisations to provide basic services. Corruption and mismanagement will deter foreign investment, including in the oil sector, the main source of government revenue. Despite a formal end to the conflict, persistent insecurity and the risk of further unrest will constrain the recovery.


Significance The government hopes greater domestic and foreign investment can help turn around the pandemic-hit economy. The governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank, last week said GDP should grow by 4.6% in 2021, compared with last year’s 2.1% contraction. Impacts Indonesia will count on private vaccination, whereby companies buy state-procured jabs for their staff, to help speed up its roll-out. The Indonesia Investment Authority, a new sovereign wealth fund, will prioritise attracting more investment into the infrastructure sector. Singapore will continue to be Indonesia’s largest source of FDI in the short term.


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