Catastrophe bond market is set for strong growth

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Alternative Source ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Impact ◽  
Catastrophe Bonds ◽  
Bond Returns ◽  
Rate Environment ◽  
Asset Classes

Significance As an alternative source of capital to traditional reinsurance, catastrophe (cat) bond issuance, a securitised type of insurance against catastrophe-linked losses, is reaching new highs. In the current low interest rate environment, there has been strong investor demand for these bonds. Impacts As natural disasters increase, the chance of a catastrophe occurring in these bonds' three-to-five-year lifespan rises, weighing on returns. If the number of natural disasters with a global impact rises, cat bond returns may become more correlated with other asset classes. More catastrophe bonds that meet ESG criteria are likely to be issued.

Natural disasters and monetary policy: evidence from an augmented Taylor rule

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Apergis ◽  
James E. Payne
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Nominal Interest Rate ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the short-run monetary policy response to five different types of natural disasters (geophysical, meteorological, hydrological, climatological and biological) with respect to developed and developing countries, respectively. Design/methodology/approach An augmented Taylor rule monetary policy model is estimated using systems generalized method of moments panel estimation over the period 2000–2018 for a panel of 40 developed and 77 developing countries, respectively. Findings In the case of developed countries, the greatest nominal interest rate response originates from geophysical, meteorological, hydrological and climatological disasters, whereas for developing countries the nominal interest rate response is the greatest for geophysical and meteorological disasters. For both developed and developing countries, the results suggest the monetary authorities will pursue expansionary monetary policies in the short-run to lower nominal interest rates; however, the magnitude of the monetary response varies across the type of natural disaster. Originality/value First, unlike previous studies, which focused on a specific type of natural disaster, this study examines whether the short-run monetary policy response differs across the type of natural disaster. Second, in relation to previous studies, the analysis encompasses a much larger panel data set to include 117 countries differentiated between developed and developing countries.

Low interest rate environment: inventory management in Finland and Baltic states

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olli-Pekka Hilmola ◽  
Weidong Li ◽  
Andres Tolli
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Customer Service ◽  
Inventory Management ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Recent Decade ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Rate Environment

PurposeFor decades, it was emphasized that manufacturing and trading companies should aim to be lean with very small inventories. However, in the recent decade, time-significant change has taken place as nearly all of the “old west” countries have now low interest rates. Holding inventories have been beneficial for the sake of customer service and for achieving savings in transportation and fixed ordering costs.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, inventory management change is examined in publicly traded manufacturing and trade companies of Finland and three Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) during the years 2010–2018.FindingsInventory efficiency has been leveled off or falling in these countries and mostly declining development has concerned small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). It is also found that inventory efficiency is in general lower in SMEs than in larger companies. Two companies sustaining in inventory efficiency are used as an example that lean has still significance, and higher inventories as well as lower inventory efficiency should not be the objective. Two companies show exemplary financial performance as well as shareholder value creation.Research limitations/implicationsWork concerns only four smaller countries, and this limits its generalization power. Research is one illustration what happens to private sector companies under low interest rate policies.Practical implicationsContinuous improvement of inventory efficiency becomes questionable in the light of current research and the low interest rate environment.Originality/valueThis is one of the seminal studies from inventory efficiency as the global financial crisis taken place in 2008–2009 and there is the implementation of low interest rates.

Nigeria’s 2020 budget plans could prove impossible

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
High Interest Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Doing Business ◽  
Deficit Financing ◽  
Rate Environment ◽  
Ease Of Doing Business

Subject Nigeria's 2020 budget. Significance President Muhammadu Buhari on October 8 proposed a 10.3-trillion-naira (28.4-billion-dollar) budget for 2020. The budget plans to increase spending on much-needed infrastructure, while deficit financing trends also look set to continue with a proposed 2.18-trillion-naira deficit. However, the proposed budget is plagued by the same challenges that have crippled previous Buhari plans, namely overly optimistic revenue expectations. Impacts A curtailing of infrastructure spending, combined with the high interest rate environment, will likely limit the economy's growth potential. Increased compliance costs could hurt an already diminished investment reputation and future World Bank ‘ease of doing business’ rankings. An easier relationship between the presidency and the national assembly should see the budget passed without the major delays of past years.

Determinants of foreign portfolio flows to Indian debt market

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 459-479
Author(s):  
Kirti Gupta ◽  
Shahid Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Portfolio Investment ◽  
Portfolio Flows ◽  
Indirect Measures ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Debt Market ◽  
Portfolio Investments

Purpose The volatile nature of foreign portfolio flows, especially flows into debt market, has large implications on financial and macroeconomic stability in recipient countries. It is necessary to identify the main drivers of portfolio investments in bond market of developing economies to design effective policies to enhance resilience of the economy and help in managing capital flow volatility. The determinants of foreign portfolio investment to Indian equity market have been examined in literature, but flows to bond market remain unexplored. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to identify the possible determinants of foreign portfolio flows to Indian bond market both in the short and in the long run. Design/methodology/approach This study carries out a time series analysis by deploying autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration of monthly data of the period from January 2002 to December 2016 for the Indian economy. A mix of pull and push factors has been analysed in this study. Domestic growth, domestic stock market performance, interest rate differential, exchange rate, volatility in exchange rate, stock market returns in other emerging economies, foreign output growth and dummy variables to trace the external developments such as global financial crisis and unconventional monetary policies of advanced economies have been used as explanatory variables. Findings The dominant pull factor such as interest rate differential explains the dynamics of flows in Indian bond market. The relationship between capital movements and interest rate differentials is the most accepted paradigm in international finance (Haynes, 1988). Among other domestic factors are stock market performance, volatility in exchange rates and domestic growth rates which are found to be significant drivers of foreign portfolio bond flows to India. The study also confirmed that global conditions could induce a fast outflow of capital from India. Research limitations/implications The study concludes that both domestic factors and external factors are equally important in determining the foreign portfolio investments in the Indian debt market. Practical implications The empirical analysis conducted in this study suggests that direct and indirect measures can be taken to increase and stabilise foreign investments in the Indian bond market. Direct policy measures refer to those tools which are under the ambit of policymakers. Indirect measures comprise those tools that are not under the direct control of the fiscal and monetary authorities but require coordinated efforts of the government and private sector. In this context, strengthening of not only financial and economic but also administrative institutions will be necessary. Creditworthiness and policy credibility should be improved to address erratic foreign portfolio investment in debt market of India. Originality/value This study is an original research study. This study adds to the existing literature and is expected to guide policymakers on the specific aspect of the management of capital flows as it gets affected by changes in monetary and fiscal policies.

scholarly journals The dynamics of bond market development, stock market development and economic growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (49) ◽  
pp. 119-147
Author(s):  
Rudra P. Pradhan ◽  
Mak B. Arvin ◽  
Neville R. Norman ◽  
Sahar Bahmani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Market Development ◽  
Development Economic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Market Development

Purpose The paper investigates whether Granger causal relationships exist between bond market development, stock market development, economic growth and two other macroeconomic variables, namely, inflation rate and real interest rate. The study aims to expand the domain of economic growth by including a more in-depth analysis of the possible impact that bond market and stock market development has on economic growth than is normally found in the literature. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses a panel data set of the G-20 countries for the period 1991-2016. It uses a panel vector auto-regression model to reveal the nature of any Granger causality among the five variables. Findings The paper provides empirical insights that both bond market development and stock market development are cointegrated with economic growth, inflation rate and real interest rate. The most robust result from the panel Granger causality test is that bond market development, stock market development, inflation rate and real interest rate are demonstrable drivers of economic growth in the long run. Research limitations/implications Because of the chosen research approach, the research results may lack theoretical foundations. Therefore, perhaps the more fully grounded interactive findings of this study can inspire theorists to fill the missing gap. Practical implications This paper includes lessons for policymakers in the G-20 countries seeking to stimulate economic growth in the long run and how they need to ensure greater stability of the interest rate and inflation rate as well as fully developing their financial markets, as both bond markets and stock markets are obvious drivers of economic growth. Originality/value This paper fulfills an identified need to study causal relationships between bond market development, stock market development, economic growth and two other macroeconomic variables, i.e. inflation rate and real interest rate.

Research on the transmission mechanism between the money market interest rates and the capital market interest rates

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 110-124
Author(s):  
Xiu Zhang ◽  
Shoudong Chen ◽  
Yang Liu
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Money Market ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Interest Rate

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the transmission mechanism between benchmark interest rate of financial market, money market interest rate and capital market yields in order to reveal the dynamic evolution characters and core influential structure between different market interest rates. Design/methodology/approach – Using Dirichlet-VAR (DVAR) model, this study analyze the relationship between markets rates according to the equilibrium model in money market and capital market. Findings – Empirical results show that the interest rate transmission mechanism functions smoothly between interest rates of different levels. Interest rate of bills issued by the central bank can effectively reflect changes in monetary policy and guide the fluidity of market, playing the anchor role in interest rate pricing. There exists a closed loop feedback between interest rate of bills issued by the central bank, and money market interest rate, as well as between money market interest rate and bond market interest rate. The former is a loop by administrative means while the latter is the one mainly affected by market-oriented means. The response by money market and bond market toward the change of benchmark interest rate is unsymmetrical as money market is more sensitive to a loose monetary policy while bond market is more sensitive to a tight monetary policy. Stock market is strongly affected by uncertainty of benchmark interest rate. Originality/value – DVAR model is the extension of research on instable data and multiple variable causality test, which expands the causality analysis between two variables to multiple variables causality impact analysis which contains non-stable and structurally instable economic data.

Is government borrowing crowding out long term debt resources

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1719-1731 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanzeem Hasnat ◽  
Shahid Ashraf
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Crowding Out ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Corporate Bond Market ◽  
Debt Market ◽  
The Interest Rate

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the possibility of financial crowding out in the long-term debt market in India taking the corporate bond market as a proxy. Design/methodology/approach The study follows a two-pronged approach. First, it tests the corporate bond market sensitivity to interest rate, along with other determinants like commercial bank credit and government securities size using the autoregressive distributed lag approach. These are considered instrumental in the development of a long-term debt market. Second, it tests if the interest rate changes are fiscal deficit (FD) induced using Granger causality framework. Findings It finds evidence of both the interest rate sensitivity of the corporate bond market and the interest rates to be FD induced, thereby empirically validating the possibility of financial crowding out in the Indian debt market segment. Research limitations/implications Based on the results, it seems that any deviation from the path of fiscal prudence can prove dear in the development of the corporate bond market. Also, the banking sector is overexposed to the risks it is not geared to handle, given by the serious asset-liability mismatches and contraction it leads in the market debt, like the corporate bond market. The government securities market could be further developed, which would provide a cue to corporate segment further and also a benchmark yield curve. Originality/value The study adds to the very limited literature on the corporate bond market in India, especially in the empirical domain and possibly is the first attempt to empirically explore the aspect of financial crowding out with reference to corporate bond market.

The causes and challenges of low interest rates: insights from basic principles and recent literature

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Youchang Wu
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Relative Price ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Real Interest Rates ◽  
Basic Principles ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Forces ◽  
Rate Environment

PurposeWhat causes the downward trend of real interest rates in major developed economies since the 1980s? What are the challenges of the near-zero interest and inflation rates for monetary policy? What can the policymakers learn from the latest developments in the monetary and interest rate theory? This paper aims to answer these questions by reviewing both basic principles of interest rate determination and recent academic and policy debates.Design/methodology/approachThe paper critically reviews the explanations for the downward trend of real interest rates in recent decades and monetary policy options in a near-zero interest rate environment.FindingsThe decline of real interest rates is likely an outcome of multiple technological, social and economic factors including diminished productivity growth, changing demographics, elevated tail-risk concerns, time-varying convenience yields of safe assets, increased global demand for safe assets, rising wealth and income inequality, falling relative price of capital, accommodative monetary policies, and changes in industry structure that alter the investment and saving behaviors of the corporate sector. The near-zero interest rate limits the space of central banks' response to economic crises. It also challenges some conventional wisdoms of monetary theory and sparks radically new ideas about monetary policy.Originality/valueThis survey differs from the existing work by taking a broader view of both economics and finance literature. It critically assesses the economic forces driving the global decline of real interest rates through the lens of basic principles and empirical evidence and discusses the merits and limitations of each proposed explanation. The study emphasizes the importance of a better understanding of economic forces driving diverging trends of corporate investment and saving behaviors. It also discusses the implications of the neo-Fisherism and the fiscal theory of price level for monetary policy in a low interest rate environment.

Volatility integration of gold and crude oil prices with the interest rates in India

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shailesh Rastogi ◽  
Adesh Doifode ◽  
Jagjeevan Kanoujiya ◽  
Satyendra Pratap Singh
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The Impact

PurposeCrude oil, gold and interest rates are some of the key indicators of the health of domestic as well as global economy. The purpose of the study is to find the shock volatility and price volatility effects of gold and crude oil market on interest rates in India.Design/methodology/approachThis study finds the mutual and directional association of the volatility of gold, crude oil and interest rates in India. The bi-variate GARCH models (Diagonal VEC GARCH and BEKK GARCH) are applied on the sample data of gold price, crude oil price and yield (interest rate) gathered from November 30, 2015 to November 16, 2020 (weekly basis) to investigate the volatility association including the volatility spillover effect in the three markets.FindingsThe main findings of the study focus on having a long-term conditional correlation between gold and interest rates, but there is no evidence of volatility spillover from gold and crude oil on the interest rates. The findings of the study are of great importance especially to the policymakers, as they state that the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude oil do not adversely impact the interest rates in India. Therefore, the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude may generally impact the economy, but it has nothing to do with interest rate in particular. This implies that domestic and foreign investments in the country will not be affected by gold and crude oil that are largely driven by interest rates in the country.Practical implicationsGold and crude oil are two very important commodities that have their importance not only for domestic affairs but also for international business. They veritably influence the economy including forex exchange for any nation. In addition to this, the researchers believe the findings will provide insights to policymakers, stakeholders and investors.Originality/valueGold and crude oil undoubtedly influence the exchange rates but their impact on the interest rates in an economy is not definite and remains ambiguous owing to the mixed findings of the studies. The lack of studies related to the impact of gold and crude oil on the interest rates, despite them being essentials for the health of any economy is the main motivation of this study. This study is novel as it investigates the volatility impact of crude oil and gold on interest rates and contributes to the existing literature with its findings.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document