New cabinet will struggle to improve Haiti’s politics

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Social System ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Undocumented Migration ◽  
Focus Attention ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Factions

Significance The assassination of President Jovenel Moise in July, surging violent crime and a weak economy have left the unpopular acting prime minister, Ariel Henry, struggling to establish a new government. His cabinet, appointed in November, represents a compromise among various political factions. However, as multiple interests put pressure on these factions, the cabinet looks unlikely to turn the country’s fortunes around. Impacts High rates of crime will encourage increased undocumented migration to the Dominican Republic, stoking bilateral tensions. The ongoing investigation into Moise’s death will continue to focus attention on links between political groupings and drug gangs. Rising deportations of Haitians from the United States will put additional pressure on the beleaguered social system.

Canada-US ties will see fewer irritants under Biden

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Keystone Xl ◽  
Keystone Xl Pipeline

Significance Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is preparing to welcome a more predictable and stable partner in Biden than outgoing Republican President Donald Trump. However, Biden is also expected quickly to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, cutting another lifeline to Canada’s oil industry and creating some strain in Canada-US ties. Impacts Improved Canada-US ties will persist even if Trudeau loses the next federal election to Conservative Erin O’Toole. Canada will re-engage militarily with UN peacekeeping and NATO deployments. Trudeau will encourage Biden to end US prosecution of Meng Wanzhou, allowing Canada to release her; Biden may agree. Canada’s border with the United States will open in stages as COVID-19 recedes. Ottawa will push Biden to end ‘Buy American’ procurement policies, with little success.

Neither side is ready to step back in Georgian crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
National Movement ◽  
Election Victory ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The authorities went ahead with the arrest of Nika Melia, leader of the opposition United National Movement (UNM), on February 23 even after the prime minister resigned in protest. Georgian Dream's actions have caused concern in Western capitals that approved its election victory when the opposition cried foul. Impacts The crisis is a setback for the government's stated plan to apply for EU membership in 2024. There is growing talk in the United States about individual sanctions targeting Ivanishvili and his associates. Political turmoil will harm hopes of foreign direct investment and the imminent Anaklia port tender.

Creeping authoritarianism is a real risk in Tunisia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Risk ◽  
Chief Prosecutor ◽  
Moderating Role ◽  
The Eu

Significance He did not name a new prime minister. Over July 25-26, Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hicham Mechichi, dissolved his government, suspended parliament for 30 days, lifted parliamentary immunity and declared himself chief prosecutor, triggering Tunisia’s worst political crisis in a decade. Impacts The Ennahda party could be persecuted once again, this time on corruption charges, as the reconciliation offered excludes its members. Tunisia may become a new ideological battleground, pitting Turkey and Qatar against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The EU, the United States and Algeria have some influence on Tunisia and could perhaps play a moderating role.

Japan joining Five Eyes would mean tough compromises

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Policy Issue ◽  
The United States ◽  
Institutional Arrangements ◽  
Potential Contribution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Policy Issue ◽  
Opening Up

Significance The possibility of Japan joining the alliance is now seriously discussed in Tokyo and the capitals of the Five Eyes members -- the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Joining Five Eyes would signal Japan’s even deeper integration into US alliance structures, regionally and globally, and raise expectations for Japan to act as a fuller ally in all sorts of contingencies. Impacts Japan’s greatest potential contribution to allies is probably in signals and imagery intelligence, especially vis-a-vis China. The prime minister will avoid opening up a controversial foreign policy issue so close to a general election; his successor may be bolder. Japan’s partners still run a risk of leaks due to Japan’s lag in cybersecurity and institutional arrangements, but this is decreasing.

Haiti hurricane could have major political impact

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Dominican Republic ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Political ◽  
Property Damage ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Impact

Significance The decision followed the devastation caused by Hurricane Matthew, which struck the country on October 4, killing hundreds. With estimates of casualties and property damage still being revised upwards, it is unclear when the electoral authorities will be in a position to reschedule the much-delayed elections. Impacts The United States will push for elections to be rescheduled quickly, as it was opposed to the rerun in the first place. However, holding elections too quickly would be controversial, as it would risk disenfranchising displaced voters. Popular anger at the devastation will be ultimately channelled into frustration with the political paralysis. The crisis could drive up attempted migration to the Dominican Republic and the United States.

Turkish society will become more Islamic under AKP

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Middle Class ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Business Partners ◽  
Turkish Constitution ◽  
Turkish Society

Subject The future of secularism in of Turkey. Significance The speaker of the Grand National Assembly, Ismail Kahraman, provoked uproar on April 25 when he called for secularism to be dropped from the proposed (but as yet unpublished) new constitution. There were instant protests and demonstrations by middle-class opponents and, perhaps more surprisingly, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. Both rejected the idea that secularism -- which has featured in the Turkish constitution since 1928 -- should be discarded. Impacts Society's pro-Western orientation is being slowly eroded, and latent hostility to the United States and United Kingdom is growing. Turkey's main secular universities -- Bosphorus (Bogazici) and Middle East Technical -- are under increasing pressure to change. Government preference for Middle Eastern, especially Saudi and Qatari, business partners and investors will continue.

Ties with India depend on Iran's normalisation

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Missed Opportunities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Trade Relationships ◽  
Defence Cooperation ◽  
Economic Ties

Significance The deal was one of a number of key agreements that Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed during his visit to Tehran on May 23. The visit aimed to advance relations following the lifting of sanctions on Iran in January, and a decade of missed opportunities and rising suspicion in relations between Tehran and Delhi. Impacts Expanding energy and trade ties will support Iran's efforts to diversify its economy and trade relationships. Building economic ties with India will help the normalisation of Tehran's international relations. India will limit security and defence cooperation with Iran in order to avoid alienating Israel, Gulf states and the United States.

Pragmatism may win out in Turkey over anti-Westernism

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Political Trauma ◽  
Coup Attempt

Subject Foreign policy after the attempted coup. Significance Before the July 15 coup attempt, foreign policy was showing signs of turning towards pragmatism from the ambitious positions associated with former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. Rapprochement was sought with both Russia and Israel, and relations with the United States and EU were relatively stable. The attempted coup introduces considerable uncertainty. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's insistence that US-based cleric Fethullah Gulen was behind it is drawing the United States into Turkey's most serious political trauma in decades. Impacts Relations with the West are unlikely to return to their pre-coup warmth soon. The most likely result for US-Turkish relations is what may be termed a 'stressed-out partnership of convenience'. How both US-Turkish relations and Turkey's conflict with the PKK develop will determine Turkish policy on Syria and the ISG.

India-Pakistan tensions will simmer but not boil over

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Economic Pressure ◽  
Kashmir Valley ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Significance Following the victory of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in elections late last month, he expressed a wish to improve relations with Pakistan's neighbour and traditional enemy India, especially on the disputed Kashmir valley. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will seek to retain power in elections early next year, congratulated Khan on his poll win. Impacts Pakistan’s military may try to influence the Afghan parliamentary election in October. The security of Indian-administered Kashmir will deteriorate. India will lobby the United States to exert further political and economic pressure on Pakistan over cross-border militancy.

Canada will struggle to diversify trade

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Government Procurement ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic News ◽  
American Trade

Significance US efforts to renegotiate NAFTA were already tense, but this round of talks comes after Canada filed a wide-ranging complaint at the WTO over US trade practices. Meanwhile, the implementation of the Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) and the revival of an eleven-member version of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) without the United States could bring some good economic news to Canada. However, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have been rebuffed in their efforts to begin free trade agreement (FTA) talks with China. Impacts Canada’s WTO case could make Trump more likely to leave NAFTA after this negotiation round. Resumed WTO tariffs in North American trade may see higher lumber, minerals, oil and other commodities prices. Bureaucratic interventions defending national interests in Canadian and EU government procurement will blunt CETA’s potential.

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