Haiti hurricane could have major political impact

Significance The decision followed the devastation caused by Hurricane Matthew, which struck the country on October 4, killing hundreds. With estimates of casualties and property damage still being revised upwards, it is unclear when the electoral authorities will be in a position to reschedule the much-delayed elections. Impacts The United States will push for elections to be rescheduled quickly, as it was opposed to the rerun in the first place. However, holding elections too quickly would be controversial, as it would risk disenfranchising displaced voters. Popular anger at the devastation will be ultimately channelled into frustration with the political paralysis. The crisis could drive up attempted migration to the Dominican Republic and the United States.

2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 358-389
Author(s):  
Anna Maria Mayda ◽  
Giovanni Peri ◽  
Walter Steingress

This paper studies the impact of immigration to the United States on the vote share for the Republican Party using county-level data from 1990 to 2016. Our main contribution is to show that an increase in high-skilled immigrants decreases the share of Republican votes, while an inflow of low-skilled immigrants increases it. These effects are mainly due to the indirect impact on existing citizens’ votes, and this is independent of the origin country and race of immigrants. We find that the political effect of immigration is heterogeneous across counties and depends on their skill level, public spending, and noneconomic characteristics. (JEL D72, J15, J24, J61, R23)


Significance In the wake of the terrorist attacks in Paris, the political debate on law enforcement 'going dark' due to encryption has resurfaced again in the United States and United Kingdom. However, governments have yet to demonstrate evidence of a loss of security capability because of encryption. Impacts The 'going dark' debate may be being used to distract from security agencies' existing surveillance capabilities. The debate's outcome could have a severe negative effect on consumer trust in internet-based businesses. Businesses will see opportunities in relocation to jurisdictions with robust laws that do not weaken cryptographic systems.


Significance The National Liberation Front (FLN) and Democratic National Rally (RND) received the most seats, as expected, amid widespread voter apathy. Impacts The government will continue its austerity strategy in response to the low oil price, and face more social tension and protests. The young generation will lose even more trust in the political system and opt for protest, resignation and emigration. The supporters of security and economic cooperation with the United States within the regime were strengthened.


2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 334-363
Author(s):  
Mark Brockway

AbstractThe American religious landscape is transforming due to a sharp rise in the percentage of the population that is nonreligious. Political and demographic causes have been proffered but little attention has been paid to the current and potential political impact of these “nones,” especially given the established link between religion, participation, and party politics. I argue that the political impact of nonreligious Americans lies in an unexplored subset of the nonreligious population called committed seculars. Committed seculars de-identify with religion, they adopt secular beliefs, and join organizations structured on secular beliefs. Using a unique survey of a secular organization, the American Humanist Association, I demonstrate that committed seculars are extremely partisan and participatory, and are driven to participate by their ideological extremity in relation to the Democratic Party. These results point to a long-term mobilizing dimension for Democrats and indicate the potential polarizing influence of seculars in party politics.


2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 122
Author(s):  
Ahmad Sahide

Donald Trump is the 45th President of the United States who was sworn in on January 20, 2017. Donald Trump's victory shook the global political order because a number of his statements and political policies were very controversial. A number of controversial Trump policies include the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, the closeness of relations with Vladimir Putin, to protectionist policies that get resistance from within and outside the country. The author uses the legitimacy theory in this study to see the political impact of the policies taken by Trump. The results of this study see that Donald Trump's policy controversy has an impact on the crisis of political legitimacy which results in the threat of US political supremacy in the global political arena.


Significance This is the latest in a series of deadly terrorist attacks attributed to al-Shabaab since late July hitting high-profile targets in Mogadishu. The militant group is succeeding in carrying out these strikes as the country prepares for a political transition. Impacts The United States and other Western backers of the Somali government will step up security support to safeguard the elections. Al-Shabaab will accelerate complex attacks into November aimed at soft targets. The attacks will fail to disrupt upcoming indirect elections but could undermine confidence in security and the political process.


Subject The prospects for finalising TTIP. Significance While the EU as a whole -- the European Commission, most member states and a majority of members of the European Parliament (EP) -- appears to remain committed to a wide-ranging agreement with the United States, there are growing indications that public opposition may render the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreement politically unviable. Impacts TTIP is estimated to raise the EU's GDP by 0.5%. European governments may decide that such a modest growth boost is not worth the political problems generated by the negotiations. If implemented, its terms could serve as a blueprint for future trade agreements between the EU and other countries. The deal's prospects will be diminished by the US election cycle's appeals to protectionist sentiment.


Subject Developments in oil refining. Significance The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) will shake up the refining sector and petroleum products market later this year, when the SOCAR Turkey Aegean Refinery (STAR) is commissioned, Turkey’s fifth refinery and its first new one for three decades. With demand for products set to continue rising and flows of Iraqi crude to increase as Baghdad re-exerts control over its northern oilfields and export pipeline, two more refineries are planned, which could further reduce Turkish dependence on product imports. Impacts Corporate plans to expand refining chime with the political thaw in relations between Turkey and Iraq. STAR will refine heavy regional rather than light Azeri crudes -- the product mix includes petcoke, in great demand for cement manufacture. Tupras has huge volumes of petrol to export, mainly to the United States, because the tax regime inclines domestic drivers to use diesel. The preference for diesel over petrol is affecting air quality in Turkey’s cities.


Significance Alternative explanations focus on chroncially weak investment and the relocation of production from developed to developing markets. The diagnosis matters because these imbalances are the source of significant tension and dissatisfaction within and between states. Impacts The Pettis-Klein analysis provides intellectual support for the United States's effort to overhaul its trade and financial ties with China. It would take a major crisis in the United States, EU or China to provide the political impetus necessary to reduce global imbalances. A lack of trust and the weakness of the UN and other international bodies will limit collaborative solutions to the imbalances.


2018 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 782-788 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Motta

ABSTRACTAmericans’ attitudes toward scientists have become more negative in recent years. Although researchers have considered several individual-level factors that might explain this change, little attention has been given to the political actions of scientists themselves. This article considers how March for Science rallies that took place across the United States in late April 2017 influenced Americans’ attitudes toward scientists and the research they produce. An online panel study surveying respondents three days before and two days after the March found that liberals’ and conservatives’ attitudes toward scientists polarized following the March. Liberals’ attitudes toward scientists became more positive whereas conservatives’ attitudes became more negative. However, the March appears to have had little effect on the public’s attitudes about scientific research. In addition to answering questions about the March’s political impact, this research calls attention to the possibility that the political actions of scientists can shape public opinion about them.


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