New cabinet will struggle to improve Haiti’s politics

Significance The assassination of President Jovenel Moise in July, surging violent crime and a weak economy have left the unpopular acting prime minister, Ariel Henry, struggling to establish a new government. His cabinet, appointed in November, represents a compromise among various political factions. However, as multiple interests put pressure on these factions, the cabinet looks unlikely to turn the country’s fortunes around. Impacts High rates of crime will encourage increased undocumented migration to the Dominican Republic, stoking bilateral tensions. The ongoing investigation into Moise’s death will continue to focus attention on links between political groupings and drug gangs. Rising deportations of Haitians from the United States will put additional pressure on the beleaguered social system.

North-South climate tensions may undermine progress

Significance With the world still not on track to restrict global warming to 1.5 degrees relative to pre-industrial times, a major divide in particular looks set to grow between developed and developing economies, over who should shoulder responsibility for meeting that goal. Impacts Northern-centric climate research will ensure continued bias in the identification of priorities and the development of possible solutions. Wealthy governments will offer individual countries financing, outside global agreements, to encourage enhanced emissions reduction. Natural disasters caused by climate change will drive increased undocumented migration from poor countries towards wealthy ones.

Undocumented Migration and Electoral Support: Evidence From Spain

Unwrapping the political discourse against immigration is key to understanding the rise of populism in Western democracies. A growing body of literature has found ample evidence that immigration pays a premium to conservative political forces that propose tighter policies. Using data on presidential elections in Spain from 2008 to 2019, we shed light on this debate by highlighting the role played by irregular migration. Some studies show that undocumented immigrants consume less and earn lower wages than documented immigrants with similar observable characteristics. In addition, since they are relegated to working in the informal sector, they cannot contribute to the welfare state with direct taxes. This suggests that undocumented migration might intensify support for right-wing politics and that the effect is independent from the one caused by the presence of documented migrants. We apply an instrumental variable strategy to deal with the non-random distribution of migrants across political districts. Our findings indicate that increasing undocumented migration increases support for the right, while increasing documented migration rises support for the left. When we consider the irruption of the far-right into electoral competitions, we find that undocumented migration redistributes votes from the left to the right, as has been observed in other countries.

Participatory photography and undocumented migration through Mexico at the intersection of social work and anthropology

This article reflects on participatory photography in the context of ethnographic fieldwork at a humanitarian migrant shelter in Central Mexico to consider broader intersections between social work and anthropology. I describe how shifting immigration enforcement trends across Mexico reconfigured my original plan for integrating participatory photography into my work as a researcher and shelter worker. Tracing these changes through three cases examples, I highlight tensions between photography as a reflection of social experience and photography as a mechanism for enacting social change. In light of recent critiques surrounding formulaic and cursory discussions of empowerment in participatory photography, I argue that unexpected shifts in research and practice strategies are themselves meaningful data, especially in uncertain policy environments.

Return migrants and the wage premium: does the legal status of migrants matter?

This paper examines the impact of the legal status of overseas migrants on their wages upon return to the home country. Using unique data from Egypt, which allows us to distinguish between return migrants according to whether their international migration was documented or undocumented, we examine the impact of illegal status on wages upon return. Relying on a Conditional Mixed Process model, which takes into account the selection into emigration, into return, and into the legal status of temporary migration, we find that, upon return, undocumented migrants experience a wage penalty compared with documented migrants, as well as relative to non-migrants. Our results are the first to show the impact of undocumented migration on the migrant upon return to the country of origin.

Mexico’s migration approach will remain unchanged

Significance His comments, at Mexico’s Senate, come amid a surge in undocumented migration through Mexico, and follow discussions on how to address the matter on September 9, at the first US-Mexican High-Level Economic Dialogue (HLED) meeting since 2016. Impacts COVID-19 concerns will exacerbate border pressures, perpetuating processing delays and increasing the numbers of trapped migrants. Growing tensions between migrants and locals will see migration become a progressively problematic issue for Mexico politically. Migration will become an increasingly sensitive aspect of Mexico-US relations.

Adult Beliefs About the Migration Motives of Unaccompanied Honduran Youth

A number of researchers have examined undocumented migration from Central America. This literature lacks information about adult beliefs regarding the motivations of minors who journey from Central America unaccompanied and undocumented. Using data from a recent survey conducted in Honduras, we examine adult Hondurans’ beliefs about why unaccompanied minors leave the country unaccompanied. The dependent variable is a dummy variable that measures “why children leave the country.” Predictor variables are attitudes toward smuggling, willingness to leave without documentation, deportation experience, age, income, and residence in the northern part of Honduras. Using multinomial logistic regression, we find support for four of the eight hypotheses. Findings indicate that adults from the northern region are most likely to believe minors would leave for reasons associated with undocumented immigration. Those who are younger, with lower incomes, and with less access to sanitation are more likely to believe minors would leave without documentation.

Back for Good

This article suggests that legalization and amnesty programmes have not been able to reduce undocumented migration in Malaysia for two reasons. First, the programmes merely serve as a registration tool that provides foreign workers with short-term work permits and as a surveillance tool to keep track of foreign workers. Second, the temporary work permits granted are no substitute for a migrant-labour management policy in addressing the acute shortage of low-skilled workers. Despite the introduction of these programmes, undocumented migrants have continued to exist because employers prefer to hire undocumented workers in their ‘race to the bottom’ in terms of costs, and the workers are dependent on their employers and agents as the gatekeepers of their legal immigration status. In 2016 and 2019, the Malaysian government introduced two reforms to its legalization and amnesty programmes: it eliminated outsourcing of the process in the Rehiring Programme (2016) and barred repatriated migrants from re-entering the country under the Back for Good amnesty programme (2019). Though these reforms have partially addressed the limitations of the previous programmes, they have not addressed the root cause of migrant labourers working without proper documentation.

Tensions will undermine US-Mexico cooperation

Significance The meetings follow a period of increased strain in the bilateral relationship, over the US arrest, and subsequent release, of former Mexican Defence Minister General Salvador Cienfuegos. They also come amid a surge in undocumented migration, one of several long-standing issues that will increase tensions. Impacts The more affable tone of US-Mexican relations under Biden will not alter long-standing US drug and migration control priorities. US engagement with, and funding for, Mexican human rights and anti-corruption NGOs could foster tensions with the AMLO administration. AMLO’s poor record of containing criminal violence and his enduring aversion to coercive law enforcement will test security cooperation. Poor security cooperation will damage both parties, making the rescue and redefinition of bilateral security cooperation crucial.

Tensions to rise on Haiti-Dominican Republic border

Significance One is the Dominican Republic’s controversial plan to build a border ‘wall’, to halt undocumented migration. Another is the Haitian authorities’ recent construction of an irrigation canal just within the Haitian side of the border. Protests and border clashes are likely to intensify over the coming months. Impacts Increased border security will drive up demand for, and the cost of, cross-border smuggling, worsening insecurity. Effective border policing may foster short-term labour shortages in the Dominican Republic. Demands for vaccination evidence before crossing the border will probably prompt a surge in black-market vaccination certificates.