Africa-European investment initiative may misfire

Headline AFRICA: European investment initiative may misfire

Subject Outlook for infrastructure spending. Significance European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker proposed a 315 billion euro (340 billion dollar) infrastructure initiative to revive the EU economy, expected to reinforce ongoing monetary policy efforts to boost growth. Fund raising is progressing through the European Investment Bank (EIB). The programme can benefit both short-term and long-term growth prospects, while its actual impact will depend on the projects implemented, as politically motivated choices can delay, distort and depress the benefits. This plan comes late, six years after the global financial crisis; one of its priorities is generating rapid results to boost the economic recovery. Impacts To have a net positive impact, any infrastructure proposal would have to avoid drawing funds away from existing investment plans. The plan could help reducing disparities between labour markets in different euro-area countries. Persistently high euro-area unemployment will need a domestic demand revival to boost sentiment, growth and job creation.


Headline CHINA/EU: Investment bans will slow China’s progress


Significance The IMF insists that Greece’s debt must be made sustainable before it will again participate in programme financing. Yet IMF participation is required if the bailout plan is to proceed, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble says; the Fund and the euro-area remain at odds over debt relief. Greece will need the next loan tranche by June to make debt repayments in July to private investors, the ECB, IMF and European Investment Bank. Impacts Germany, which faces federal elections this September, will accept no further debt relief until after the third bailout has concluded. The IMF is under pressure from developing countries to end its involvement in financing a first world EU member state. The package being finalised will probably not encounter any serious resistance from within the ruling Syriza party.


2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 114-129
Author(s):  
Silindile Nomfihlakalo Buthelezi

Purpose This paper aims to investigate whether any potential weakening of the UK’s financial sector, as a result of Brexit, will have a negative impact on South Africa’s financial sector given the close ties between the countries’ financial systems. This paper seeks to also argue that Brexit may provide an opportunity for South Africa to pursue new trade linkages with other countries in Africa and Asia. Design/methodology/approach This paper is a review of relevant sources from foreign direct investment (FDI) and international economic literature. It analyses comparative and cross-disciplinary research and examines the current trends in the legal and economic climate in South Africa – within the context of economic growth and FDI inflows patterns. Findings This paper finds that Brexit does not pose a systemic risk to South Africa’s financial system. This paper also finds that South Africa’s recent policy changes may serve as obstacles to South Africa attracting new FDI. Research limitations/implications The implications of Brexit on the investment in the economy of African countries are under-researched, and this paper provides an additional contribution to the euro-centric discussion of the ramifications of Brexit on the economic developments in the financial sector after Britain’s exit. Originality/value This paper argues for an enhanced FDI system for South Africa and its policy proposals can be used to further the independence of African countries from European investment streams.


Significance Although the extension is not a formal violation, it reflects rising tensions over the July 2015 deal. The US presidential election victory of Donald Trump has raised questions over its future. Trump dislikes the agreement, as do hardliners in Iran, and it is no longer likely to be implemented as originally planned. Impacts Aggressive US sanctions would deter European investment, creating opportunities for Asian investors. In the absence of a strong conservative candidate, a May 2017 election victory for President Hassan Rouhani is still probable. Washington’s likely scuppering of the sale of commercial aircraft could be a powerful political symbol for Iranian hardliners.


Subject Investment financing and behaviour. Significance In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, companies used the bond market as a substitute for bank financing as banks' lending standards tightened. Banks now finance less investment; insurance companies and pension funds finance more. This leaves countries less reliant on banking but also transfers the risks to other financial institutions. Research into the German market shows that insurance firms and pension funds invest countercyclically, selling when prices rise, but that banks and investment funds are procyclical investors, amplifying price dynamics. Impacts Micro-prudential regulation such as rules inducing investors to sell downgraded assets can prompt procyclical behaviour. Time-varying capital buffers that move with economic conditions can curb procyclical investment, limiting institutions more in good times. Regulators need to consider the interactions between institutions within and across sectors, and between solvency and stability.


Subject Czech-Chinese relations. Significance Complicated and seemingly unpredictable, recently reinvigorated Czech-Chinese relations largely depend on the political elites in power and the politico-social scene. They are now at freezing point, reflecting not only unfulfilled expectations of Chinese investments and the COVID-19 pandemic, but also the Czech identity’s deeply rooted elements and values. Impacts Czech businesses and entrepreneurs will pursue a more cautious approach when engaging with Chinese partners. As one of the most significant participants, the shifting Czech position will affect the format and continuation of China’s 17+1 initiative. Chinese investments will remain negligible, compared to EU structural funds and West European investment.


Subject An NPL overhang will crimp credit growth in Emerging Europe. Significance The European Investment Bank (EIB) has revealed that, while demand for loans across Central and South-eastern Europe (CESEE) improved in the second half of this year, the supply of credit remains constrained by the stringent regulatory environment for European banks, relatively weak economic recoveries and, crucially, persistently high levels of non-performing loans (NPLs), particularly in South-eastern Europe (SEE). There is still significant deleveraging by Western parent banks across the region, with international lenders reassessing their country strategies and taking a more discerning approach towards Central-Eastern Europe (CEE). Impacts Extremely high foreign ownership in CEE banking is now perceived much less favourably thanks to cross-border deleveraging by parent banks. Ultra-low interest rates due to ECB monetary stimulus will further erode CEE banks' profitability as lending and asset growth slows sharply. Financial markets' relative resilience, especially in CEE currencies, is helping ease the strain on banks ahead of higher US interest rates. Poland and the Czech Republic remain the most profitable markets, with relatively strong demand for credit. By contrast, Hungary and Romania are now perceived as 'turn-around markets'.


2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 398-404
Author(s):  
Cay Oertel ◽  
Thomas Gütle ◽  
Benjamin Klisa ◽  
Sven Bienert

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze potential diversification benefits of American real estate assets for European investors. Since European real estate yields are compressed due to several reasons, including high market liquidity and low interest rates, investment managers seek opportunities to provide attractive risk-return profiles for investors. Therefore, empirical proof for improvements to risk-return profiles is highly necessary in the outlined market environment. Design/methodology/approach The empirical study uses a classic mean-variance optimization approach. In order to isolate potential diversification benefits two investment environments are compared: first, an optimization for the European investment horizon is carried out. Subsequently, the same optimization is performed for European and American assets. For both scenarios, risk-return profiles are obtained and compared. Findings Two major findings can be stated: first, higher correlations between European and American markets can be observed for the present data in comparison to older studies. Second, the mean-variance optimization of solely European and then mixed European-American portfolios show improvements in risk-return profiles for the latter. Thus, diversification benefits of American properties for European real estate investors can be confirmed. Practical implications The empirical study reveals diversification benefits for European investors. Thus, the asset allocation of European investors could be affected by allocating capital toward the USA in order to improve risk-return profiles. Originality/value The value of the paper is a precise analysis of two markets, namely Europe as well as the US. Thus, the paper isolates the practical implications for European investors, who are trying to improve risk-returns profile by allocating capital toward the USA.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen Kavvadia

PurposeUnique among European Union (EU) economic governance entities and multilateral banks, the European Investment Bank (EIB) possesses a dual nature, as an EU body and a bank. The EIB has been ever evolving to adapt to policy and market developments and to reflect the geo-economic landscape. In 2019, in association with the EU's Green Deal, the bank announced its metamorphosis into a “Climate Bank,” ending its fossil fuel lending after 2021. Additionaly, upon the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and its attendant health and economy crisis, EU decision-makers have solicited the bank to support both urgent needs for tackling and countering the spread of the disease and the post-pandemic economic recovery. Nevertheless, devastated economic actors in need of assistance fall within many sectors, including some less green ones.Design/methodology/approachThis article is grounded on agency theory for developing a generic stakeholder framework, which is then subsequently applied in investigating the EIB, in interaction with its main stakeholders.FindingsThis article investigates the EIB stakeholders in pursuing these two seemingly contradictory objectives of exclusively restricting its activity to green funding and expanding its action for achieving a broad impact in the real economy. By exploring this tension, the article argues that by prioritizing the post-COVID restart, the EIB risks to deviate from its strict green commitment.Practical implicationsThe analysis of the EIB's divergent stakeholder stances demonstrates some ambivalence in future EIB activity in an effort to equipoise climate finance with a post-pandemic boost. The same ambivalence might equally occur with other major economic governance actors. The stakeholder framework developed and applied in the case of the EIB can be useful for studying also the stakeholder dynamics of other organizations.Social implicationsThe analysis demonstrates a tension between selective climate-related funding for “building back better” and the need for a wide broaching of countercyclical stimulus, with implications for economic and social actors alike.Originality/valueThe approach is novel, as it develops a new analytical framework for understanding stakeholder dynamics and tests it empirically on the EIB. This constitutes the first study of EIB stakeholder management.


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