Albania’s main opposition party faces long struggle

Headline ALBANIA: Main opposition party faces long struggle

Significance Corbyn's video appeal, directed at Jewish members of the Labour Party, followed a similar approach to Jewish groups the previous day. However, his attempts to address the anti-Semitism dispute that has engulfed his party are failing to convince either the target audience or his internal critics, with deputy leader Tom Watson warning the same day that the opposition party was failing to present itself as fit to lead the nation. Since parliament went into summer recess on July 24, political news has been dominated not by the Conservative Party’s evident difficulties with Brexit but by the Labour Party’s self-inflicted wounds over anti-Semitism. Impacts The anti-Semitism row limits Labour’s ability to provide effective opposition to the government, including on Brexit. The dispute is likely to alienate Jewish voters. Unaddressed, the issue makes it more likely that Labour MPs will break away from the party in 2019-20 once the Brexit terms are settled.


Significance Keiko’s arrest further complicates the legal problems facing Peru’s main opposition party, Fuerza Popular (FP), which has seen its public support dwindle, most recently in October 7 sub-national elections. President Martin Vizcarra’s administration has gained popularity for its seemingly resolute attempts to clamp down on judicial and political corruption. Impacts Fujimorista attempts to claim political victimisation are unlikely to receive strong public support. The victory of Accion Popular in the Lima mayoral election does not imply any swift revival of Peru’s party system. Anti-mining movements may gain renewed momentum in Puno.


Significance The agreement ends more than four months of political deadlock since the September 2017 elections. Impacts The AfD will become the leading opposition party in parliament, giving it a platform to expand its influence. Government work will be held to account more comprehensively than in 2013-17 thanks to the fragmented and diverse parliamentary opposition. There will be no change to Germany’s stance on the Brexit negotiations.


Significance Bringing the poll forward could be risky for Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's People's Action Party (PAP), as it faces a new opposition party and worsening economic conditions. Impacts Tan Cheng Bock will at the next election attempt to unite the opposition behind his Progress Singapore Party. Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat will likely succeed as prime minister when Lee eventually leaves the post. Singapore's economy is unlikely to benefit from any large-scale redirecting of investment from Hong Kong, despite the protests there.


Significance Mahathir Mohamad, whom Muhyiddin replaced as premier earlier this year, has formed a new opposition party that stands apart from the main opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) alliance. Mistrust among political elites is growing ahead of a snap election in eastern Malaysia’s Sabah state. Impacts UMNO will quickly turn attention to negotiations with partners over seat allocations for the next parliamentary poll. Mahathir’s new party will erode support for the PPBM, especially at state level. Corruption trials will continue to blight both government and opposition leaders.


Headline MALAYSIA: Opposition party is at risk of fragmenting


Headline THAILAND: Opposition party is at risk of dissolution


Significance The main opposition party, the United Party for National Development (UPND), immediately rejected the official victory declaration, counting irregularities. No evidence was offered to support this allegation, but counting delays, the result's closeness and claims that a parallel vote count has Lungu losing could undermine the government's legitimacy. Impacts The expectation that the 2017 general election is likely to be close will encourage the PF to raise government spending. Slumping copper prices cutting government revenues could necessitate further borrowing -- contravening IMF recommendations. Public sector unions are likely to use the post-election period to demand an end to the state wage freeze in place for 2014-15.


Significance The party has been in disarray since late May, after its founder Mikheil Saakashvili gave up his Georgian citizenship to become governor of Ukraine's Odesa province, and four members of parliament (MPs), including the UNM executive secretary, left the party. The meeting will resolve the leadership issue, either by consensus, or by a majority vote that will openly humiliate the losing faction. Both weak consensus leadership and open schism may tear the party apart. Impacts Saakashvili will lose formal control of UNM, opening up the contest for the leadership. UNM will have to prove its staying power as the main opposition party. Small new parties will jockey to capture the imagination of a sceptical electorate.


Significance Right-wing Law and Justice (PiS), the main opposition party, may emerge from the elections as the largest parliamentary group. However, it could find itself in opposition for lack of partners. Even if it secures a parliamentary majority, on its own or heading a coalition, the new government could be dogged by tensions between its leader and the prime minister-designate. Impacts PiS's pledges of socioeconomic reform and a more assertive international role suggest domestic and foreign policy discontinuity. However, the previous PiS government pursued relatively orthodox economic policies. PiS hostility to European integration was largely rhetorical; there may be less discontinuity in practice in economic and foreign policy. A PO-led coalition would be weak and unstable, uniting partners with different policy agendas and 'co-habiting' with a PiS president.


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