Zambia leader's narrow win portends populist shift

Significance The main opposition party, the United Party for National Development (UPND), immediately rejected the official victory declaration, counting irregularities. No evidence was offered to support this allegation, but counting delays, the result's closeness and claims that a parallel vote count has Lungu losing could undermine the government's legitimacy. Impacts The expectation that the 2017 general election is likely to be close will encourage the PF to raise government spending. Slumping copper prices cutting government revenues could necessitate further borrowing -- contravening IMF recommendations. Public sector unions are likely to use the post-election period to demand an end to the state wage freeze in place for 2014-15.

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olumide Olusegun Olaoye ◽  
Ukafor Ukafor Okorie ◽  
Oluwatosin Odunayo Eluwole ◽  
Mahmood Butt Fawwad

PurposeThis study examines the asymmetric effect of government spending on economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1980–2017. Specifically, this study investigates whether the response of economic growth to government spending shocks differs according to the nature of shocks on them. In addition, the authors examine whether the stabilizing effects of fiscal policies are dependent on the state of the business cycle.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopts the linear fiscal reaction function in addition to the nonlinear regression model of Hatemi-J (2011, 2012), Granger and Yoon (2002), which allows us to separate negative shocks from positive shocks to government spending. Similarly, the authors adopt the generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques of Hansen (1982) to account for simultaneity and endogeneity problems inherent in dynamic model.FindingsThe authors’ findings reveal that there is evidence of asymmetry in the government spending–economic growth nexus in Nigeria over the period of study. Specifically, the authors find that the response of economic growth to government spending shocks differs according to the nature of shocks on them. More specifically, the study established that the stabilizing effects of fiscal policies are dependent on the state of the business cycle.Originality/valueUnlike the traditional method of modeling asymmetry, which adopts the simple inclusion of a squared government spending term or by the inclusion of a cubic government spending term, the model adopted in this study allows us to model shocks and show how the responses of economic growth to government expenditure differ according to the nature of shocks on them.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Armando López-Lemus

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify the influence exerted by a quality management system (QMS) under ISO 9001: 2015 on the quality of public services organizations in Mexico. Design/methodology/approach The methodological design was quantitative, explanatory, observational and transversal, for which a sample of 461 public servants from the state of Guanajuato, Mexico was obtained. To test the hypotheses, a structural equation model (SEM) was developed through the statistical software Amos v.21. For the analysis of the data, software SPSS v.21 was used. Regarding the goodness and adjustment indices of the SEM (χ2 = 720.09, df = 320, CFI = 0.933, TLI = 0.926 and RMSEA = 0.05) which, therefore, proved to be acceptable. Findings According to the results obtained through the SEM model, the QMS under ISO 9001: 2015 is positively and significantly influenced tangible aspects (β1 = 0.79, p < 0.01), reliability (β2 = 0.90, p < 0.01), related to response quality (β3 = 0.93, p < 0.01), guarantees (β4 = 0.91, p < 0.01) and empathy (β5 = 0.88, p < 0.01) of the quality related to public services in Mexico. The study’s key contribution is that it discovered that implementing a QMS in accordance with the ISO 9001: 2015 standard has an impact on the quality of public services, with the most influential quality of response. Similarly, the assurance and dependability of service quality turned out to be important in providing public service quality. Research limitations/implications In this paper, the QMS was only evaluated as a variable that intervenes in the process of obtaining quality in public service under the ISO 9001 standard in its 2015 version. In this regard, the results’ trustworthiness is limited to the extent that the findings may be generalized in the state of Guanajuato, Mexico’s public service. As a result, the scientific community is left primarily focused on service quality to promote new future research. Practical implications The ISO 9001: 2015 standard’s QMS is one of the tools for success in both the commercial and government sectors. However, there are practical limitations, which focus on the time during which managers exercise their vision in the public sector: first, the dynamics that managers play in public policy; second, the length of time they have served in public office; and third, the interest of directors of public institutions to improve the quality of service provided by the government. Other practical consequences concern organizational culture and identity, public servant commitment, senior management or secretaries of government, as well as work and training. Originality/value The findings of this paper are important and valuable because they foster knowledge generation in the public sector through the ISO 9000 quality area. A model that permits the adoption and implementation of a QMS based on the ISO 9001: 2015 standard in public organizations that seek to provide quality in their services offered to the user is also presented to the literature. Similarly, the paper is important because there is currently insufficient research focusing on the variables examined in the context of public service in Mexico.


2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (6/7) ◽  
pp. 613-627
Author(s):  
Ana I. Melo ◽  
Luís F. Mota

PurposeThis paper aims to analyse the state of performance management in the Portuguese public sector as part of the efforts towards public administration reform.Design/methodology/approachTheoretically, the authors took Bouckaert and Halligan's (2008, pp. 35–39) approach into consideration to analyse the adoption of performance management practices. This approach was supplemented by an adaptation of Pollitt and Bouckaert's (2011, p. 33) framework to analyse the context for administrative reforms. The used data analysis techniques include documentary analysis (namely legislation and evaluation reports of reform efforts), secondary data analysis and a survey conducted with 296 Portuguese top public managers.FindingsThe findings show that Portuguese public sector organisations adopted several tools to measure performance over the years, but failed to incorporate performance information into their management practices or to properly use it for either internal or external purposes. Concerning the ideal types proposed by Bouckaert and Halligan (2008, p. 36), Portugal is considered to fit the “performance administration” ideal type, even though it is moving closer to the “managements of performance” ideal type.Originality/valueThis is one of the first comprehensive studies on the state of performance management in Portugal framed within the broader context of public sector reforms. The findings will be of interest both to scholars who study public administration reforms and performance management and to Portuguese policy makers and public managers who are interested in understanding and improving the way performance information is measured, incorporated and used in that sector.


Significance Some hard-right members of the Republican congressional caucus argue that allowing federal spending to lapse and threatening a government shutdown could force legislators to approve steep cuts to the federal bureaucracy. As congressional factions, leaders and President Donald Trump’s administration weigh in on government spending, debates about the appropriate scope of federal agencies and programmes are likely to feature prominently. Impacts Costly entitlement programmes are unlikely to be targeted for cuts owing to their popularity. Congressional allies of USAID will block Trump’s plan to consolidate it into the State Department. Empty executive branch-appointed positions will hinder the effective functioning of the federal government. The proposed abolition of the state and local tax deduction for federal taxes will place pressure on sub-national government programmes.


Significance The IMF also approved an increase in social welfare spending to 0.3% of GDP from 0.2% in light of the impact of the economic slump and high inflation, implying a total of 60 billion pesos (1.5 billion dollars) this year. However, the Fund warned that meeting the zero primary deficit target for 2019 would “require further restraint in government spending”. Impacts Spending cuts could be achieved through greater efficiency, but this would imply unpopular public-sector job losses. The presidential election will go to a second round and is likely to be lost rather than won. Policy uncertainty will undermine investment this year.


Significance Without explicitly saying so, the proposals create a menu of options for Putin's future role now that he has made it clear he will not be president after 2024. Putin has been under pressure to make his intentions clear, especially as the established elite must fear the loss of their patron. Impacts Further statements by Putin are likely to be just as ambiguous on his plans for himself and the state. The prospect of a weaker presidency is a setback for elite figures biding their time to make a bid. Once a new cabinet settles in, it will come under close scrutiny for its delivery of Putin's national development goals.


Subject Situation regarding Myanmar's ethnic armed organisations. Significance The government and military in Myanmar and leaders of ten ethnically based guerrilla groups that have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) last week pledged to step up their commitment to the peace process, to transform the NCA into a lasting settlement. Several other armed groups are still in conflict with the state, notwithstanding occasional ceasefires. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) will very likely retain control over the civilian part of government following this year’s general election, but ethnic parties will probably make parliamentary gains at its expense. Impacts Suu Kyi is very unlikely to face pressure to step down even if the NLD’s parliamentary majority is heavily reduced. Even with increased seat share in parliament, ethnic parties will struggle to influence policy. China and India will double down on their support for the Myanmar military.


Subject State and municipal pensions in the United States. Significance Losses from the 2008-09 financial crisis, mismanagement and insufficient annual allocations have led to a severe fiscal shortfall for a group of municipalities and states. However, changes to pension schemes are politically difficult for policymakers to achieve, given the clout of public sector unions. Impacts Firms may relocate or forgo investment to avoid future pension-driven tax increases. Republicans will play to their non-urban base by attacking the benefits of public sector employees. Post-COP21 demand for low-carbon investments is likely to complicate pension managers' search for returns. The US urban-suburban-rural divide poses greater difficulties for the Democratic Party than for Republicans.


Significance Malaysia’s next general election is due by August 2018 but could come before May. The vice-president of the opposition Islamist party Amanah has accused the government of politicising the flooding, which has seen seven die and 9,000 people evacuated (Hamidi denied this criticism). With the election cycle gaining momentum, religious controversies are likely to play an important role. Impacts The announcement of an election pact between the BN and PAS could signal the general election’s imminence. Heightened religious rhetoric in politics could see business pressure on alcoholic drinks and casino providers in Malaysia. Malaysian Islamist groups will avoid Islamic State (IS) connections, instead being influenced by local politics. The Penang floods’ political fallout could weaken the opposition Pakatan Harapan coalition which runs the state.


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